argument38 『勇往直前小组』第十二次作业linshao

linshaoUID：2338229

ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
我们注意到一种保证可以显著减少学校和工作岗位的缺席的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East Meria，鱼的消费量很高，那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然，吃较大量的鱼可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因，我们建议每天服用Ichthaid，一种从鱼油中提炼的营养物质，作为预防感冒和减少缺席率的有效措施。

In this memo, the author suggests that the daily use of lchthaid can prevent colds and lower absenteeism. However, careful scrutiny of the evidence makes the suggestion unconvincing.

In the first place, the author makes an unfair assumption that the absenteeism in school and workplaces are mainly caused by colds. There is no information about the ratio of colds in absenteeism of our city. Even granted that colds are major reason of absences, are they all true colds? Common sense tells us that people always lie to the employers or teachers for the most common reason. If the colds can be prevented efficiently, they may choose another prevailing reason to excuse the absences. If that’s true, the author's any suggestion on dealing with the colds will be meaningless to prevent absenteeism.

Another problem with the argument is the cause-effect relationship between the low colds and eating more fish. There is no evidence to demonstrate that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. The health condition, climate, living habit, eating, sleeping, etc, all of these will affect the cold rate. Perhaps the people living in East Meria drink much warm water than West. Or perhaps people in East do more swimming in the sea than west. Without ruling out these alternatives, the author cannot convince me that it is the fish which cause the lower rate of colds in East.

Moreover, even granted the fish can prevent colds, the author's recommendation remains unconvincing. There is no information that Ichthaid which derived from fish oil can prevent colds too. There maybe some other chemical substances in the fish which are effective to treat cold. If so, the author's claim will be unsound. Without informing us the mechanism of preventing colds of the fish, and without the comparison of fish and other measure which are benefit to cold, the author still cannot persuade the residents in West Meria to eat more fish for preventing the colds.

In sum, the author's suggestion is unsound as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide more information about the true main reason of the absences. To strengthen it, the author also needs to inform us of the true reason of the lower cold rate in East. And the Ichthaid's effectiveness on preventing the colds will be more helpful to make conclusion.

提纲：
ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

在Monroe建立爵士乐俱乐部将会是非常盈利的产业。当前，最近的爵士俱乐部也在65英里以外；因此，我们筹建的俱乐部C Note将会占有全部的本地市场。而且，爵士乐在Monroe非常流行：去年夏天10万多人参加了Monroe的爵士音乐节，若干知名爵士音乐家居住在Monroe，Monroe获评价最高的广播节目是平时每天播出的Jazz Nightly。最后，一项全国性研究表明典型的爵士爱好者每年花费近1000元用于爵士娱乐。显然C Note将会很赚钱。

1．赚钱除了与市场环境有关以外还与公司的经营管理密不可分。论断没有提供任何有关他们管理人员的资料，以及他们对Jazz club营销的任何设想。断然认为有好的市场环境就会赚钱。

2．认为喜欢爵士乐的人就会去Jazz club。而且听爵士乐的方式有很多，比如电台，比如自己在家听CD等等。电台的乐迷和参加聚会的人并不一定成为他们的消费者，而他们每年在爵士乐上的销费更不一定必须包括去Jazz club的费用。

3．虽然最近一家Jazz club也有65公里远，但也许就在他们旁边就有很多家俱乐部也以爵士乐为主，虽然不叫做Jazz club。另外大多数人去俱乐部的根本原因并不是听音乐，他们用爵士乐做卖点并不一定能在竞争中取胜。

4．他们应该更多地考虑如何经营俱乐部以保证他赚钱，而不能光依赖外部的环境。另外究竟人们去Jazz club的原因是什么，人们花在俱乐部上的钱又会是多少，都还有待进一步调查。
ARGUMENT230 - The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis.
"Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available."

十年前，作为一项综合城市改造项目的一部分，Transopolis市为了工业用途在快速路旁边改造了一大片严重低于标准的住房。随后，那里建立了若干工厂，犯罪率降低了，全市资产税收入增加。为进一步使城市重新繁荣，我们应该在城市另一侧的正在衰落的居住区采取类似的行动。由于现有邻近社区的一些住宅和公寓无人居住，这一行动产生的搬迁户的住所将有所保障。

1．没有证据证明这边有足够的空间发展工业，或者说发展工业适合该地区。如果说该地区附近有很多疗养院，sanatorium or park, 建工业就会影响该地区的环境。

2．论者引用十年前另一边的经验，但首先时间相隔十年，经验是否能被借鉴值得怀疑，其次另一边可能有大量质量不好的房屋，这些房屋迟早要被推倒用做别的用途，但是论者没有说这边的房屋是有是也主要是质量不好的房屋。如果不是，这是种浪费，且会引起房主不满。第三，犯罪率的下降和财税的上升与工业发展之间的因果关系不被保证。有可能该地区在这十年间制定了严格的法律，加派了更多的警察，并且还在发展比如商业、旅游业等项目。其实新建的工厂一般来说税交的都不多。

3．就算发展工业好，条件是否具备也难说。闲置的空房不等于没人要，房主不一定会答应让别人来住。

ARGUMENT150 - The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."

全球两栖动物数量的下降清楚地说明全球空气和水质的污染。在加州Yosemite国家公园对于两栖动物所进行的两次研究证实了我的结论。1915年公园中有7中两栖动物，每种的数量都很丰富。然而到了1992年在公园中只观察到4种两栖动物，并且每种动物的数量都显著下降。Yosemite公园两栖动物数量的下降曾被归因于始于1920年的在公园水域引入鲑鱼的行为（我们知道鲑鱼捕食两栖动物的卵）。但鲑鱼的引入不会是Yosemite两栖动物数量下降的真正原因应为它并不能解释全球范围的数量下降。

1．两次研究仅能证明YNP地区的数目在下降，但没有得出结论。论者也没有提供任何资料表明该地区存在空气或水域污染。因而不能像论者所以为的那样支持他关于全球数目下降显示全球有污染的结论。

2．是否有全球性的数目下降，又否是存在全球性的污染，论者都没有提供任何有关的证据。而且论者也未能在这两者之间建立因果关系，我们无法得出结论，即数目下降的原因是否是因为污染，因为也无法用以证实YNP地区的下降有可能是因为污染，也就不能排除已建立的可能，即鳟鱼引起了下降。YNP地区情况完全可以不和全球相同。

3．论者的推论中有明显的逻辑错误，他将两个仍需要证实的结论，互为彼此推理过程的基础。思维极其混乱。

ARGUMENT191 - The following is a letter from a professor at Xanadu College to the college's president.
"The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning program will enhance the reputation of Xanadu College. This program would allow more students to enroll in our courses, thereby increasing our income from student tuition. Traditional courses could easily be adapted for distance learners, as was shown by the adaptation of two traditional courses for our distance learning trial project last year. Also, by using computer programs and taped lectures, faculty will have fewer classroom obligations and more time to engage in extensive research, thereby enhancing the reputation of Xanadu."

发展一套大型计算机远程教学系统将会提高Xanadu学院的声誉。这一系统将使更多学生报名参加我们的课程，从而提高我们的学费收入。传统教学可以很容易地改编成远程教学内容，这已经被去年我们远程教学实验系统的两个传统课程的改编所证实。而且，通过使用计算机程序和录音教学，员工可以减少去教室的次数并有更多的时间从事大规模的科研活动，从而提高Xanadu的声誉。

1．没有资料表明老师有更多时间作研究。还是有学生要去课堂上课，老师的这部分时间并不一定会节省下来。而且时间多了，老师也不一定作研究。即使做研究也未必能有很多科研成果，可以提高Xanadu的声誉。
2．首先没有证据证明有很多学生会选择远程教学。其次可能会有在校的转去远程，从而减少这部分收入。
3．首先没有证据说试点的两个课程很成功。其次，课程不一样，未必能够很好的转化。同时可能会带来的负作用：学有共同学习的气氛，老师和学生没有互动。搞不好学校声誉会下降。


[ 本帖最后由 linshao 于 2007-7-31 22:27 编辑 ]

sweetbettyUID：2359460

In this memo, the author suggests that the daily use of lchthaid can prevent colds and lower absenteeism. However, careful scrutiny of the evidence makes the suggestion unconvincing.

In the first place, the author makes an unfair assumption that the absenteeism in school and workplaces are mainly caused by colds. There is no information about the ratio of colds in absenteeism of our city. Even granted that colds are major reason of absences, are they all true colds? Common sense tells us that people always lie to the employers or teachers for the most common reason. If the colds can be prevented efficiently, they may choose another prevailing reason to excuse the absences. If that’s true, the author's any suggestion on dealing with the colds will be meaningless to prevent absenteeism.

Another problem with the argument is the cause-effect relationship between the low colds and eating more fish. There is no evidence to demonstrate that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. The health condition, climate, living habit, eating, sleeping, etc, all of these will affect the cold rate. Perhaps the people living in East Meria drink much warm water than West(这个有点牵强). Or perhaps people in East do more swimming in the sea than west. Without ruling out these alternatives, the author cannot convince me that it is the fish which cause the lower rate of colds in East.（还可以考虑像感冒这样的小病可能他们都不会去看医生的）

Moreover, even granted the fish can prevent colds, the author's recommendation remains unconvincing. There is no information that Ichthaid which derived from fish oil can prevent colds too. There maybe some other chemical substances in the fish which are effective to treat cold. If so, the author's claim will be unsound. Without informing us the mechanism of preventing colds of the fish, and without the comparison of fish and other measure which are benefit to cold, the author still cannot persuade the residents in West Meria to eat more fish for preventing the colds.

In sum, the author's suggestion is unsound as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide more information about the true main reason of the absences. To strengthen it, the author also needs to inform us of the true reason of the lower cold rate in East. And the Ichthaid's effectiveness on preventing the colds will be more helpful to make conclusion.