Argument220【07-10G Superstar大帖】7月24日作文

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT220 - The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers.

"A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media."
WORDS: 442        TIME: 00:32:00          DATE: 2007-8-2 16:52:36

In this argument, the author recommends that people should choose to acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media if they wish to have careers as writers. To justify the recommendation, the author cites the situation that how much references people make between television and reading fiction. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from several critical problems.

Firstly, a threshold problem with the argument involves the reliability of the study. The author provides no evidence that the number of respondents is statistically significant or that the respondents were representative of all people in generally. Moreover, it's entirely possible that the content of fiction is less suitable than television for the day's conversation. Without considering and ruling out possibilities such as these, the author' s recommendation cannot be taken seriously.

Secondly, even if it is granted that people who make an average of references to watching television are more than those reading fiction, another assumption must be made before we conclude that the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. We must also assume that what is true of fiction will likewise be true of print industry. But there are all kinds of important differences between fiction and publishing and bookselling industries. For example, many people like reading newspapers, magazines, or novels which all are included in publishing industry although they do not like reading fiction. If so, the author can not justify his recommendation might amout to poor advice for printing industry's declining in profitability.

In addition, the author's recommendation that people should choose television rather than print media for training and experience raises two problems in itself. First, the author did not take the people’s interesting into consideration. It entirely possible that people are willing to choose print media as training methods because they like it. Secondly, if many person all supply the position in television for career training, there would no doubt be more competitions than print media in which then people may more easily acquire the training chance and success. Lacking a detail analysis of the situation, the author’s recommendation can not be taken seriously.

In sum, the author fails to validate the recommendation that people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media. To make it more logically, the author should demonstrate that the statistics between the television and reading fiction as persuasive as evidence. In addition, the author would have to provide more concrete evidence, especially information concerning about the print media, to rule out the aforementioned possibilities that would undermine the author's recommendation.