argument65 [0710G 戴三个表冲刺小组] 第8次作业

pinuoUID: 2328081

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

WORDS: 411          TIME: 00:28:03          DATE: 2007-8-2 17:52:43

In the memo the president recommended to disconitune stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on deomestic cheeses for the popurse of improving profits in all of stores. The recommendation is problematic in several aspects, render it unconvincing as it stands.

First, the the newest store's selling of last year cannot exactly predicte the selling of all the stores of the coming several years. In the memo the presents cite that the five best-selling cheeses at newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. This is insuffenciate to demostrate domestic cheeses are best selling. It is entirely possible in the other stores the imported cheeses have a better selling that the domestic. And even assume the selling in newest store are representive for the selling of all the store. It is possible that the selling of last year is just an aberation, and in the other years the past the imported cheese have a better selling. The trend may be that the import cheeses will selling better in the next year according to the trend of past several years even though domestic cheeses have a better performance in the last year.

Second, an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers indicated by a recent survey  cannot surely mean that the domestic cheeses have more subscribers than the imported. It is possibe that the subsribers of domestic cheeses have such a small sharing that they cannot surpass the sharing of the imported cheese even though they have increased.

Thirdly, even assume that the selling of the domestic cheeses will be better that imported cheeses, it is unconvincing to conclude that the domestic will have more profits than the imported cheeses. It is highly possible that the profits of selling one imported cheeses are more than the profits of ten domestic cheese, thus even the selling of  domestic cheeses are five times more than the imported cheese, the imported cheeses surpass the domestic cheeses in term of the overall profits.

In sum, to covince that it is reasonable to stop stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses, the present need to provide evidence to predict that the deomestic cheeses will have a better sellings the next year. And the presendant also must present clear evidence that the domestic cheese have more subscribers than the imported cheeses. To better asses the recommendation, I need evidence that the better sellings of domestic cheeses can guarentee more profits.

Francis07UID: 2185659

In the memo the president recommended（我也理解为president recommend了，不过看看上面的帖子说的其实是不知道谁的suggestion。） to disconitune stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on deomestic cheeses for the popurse of improving profits in all of stores. The recommendation is problematic in several aspects, render it unconvincing as it stands.

First, the the newest store's selling of last year（批时间） cannot exactly predicte the selling of all the stores of the coming several years. In the memo the presents cite that the five best-selling cheeses at newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. This is insuffenciate to demostrate domestic cheeses are best selling. It is entirely possible in the other stores the imported cheeses have a better selling that（than） the domestic. And even assume the selling in newest store are representive for the selling of all the store. It is possible that the selling of last year is just an aberation, and in the other years the past the imported cheese have a better selling. The trend may be that the import cheeses will （be）selling better in the next year according to the trend of past several years even though domestic cheeses have a better performance in the last year.
（preferrence不等于要buy）
Second, an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers indicated by a recent survey  cannot surely mean that the domestic cheeses have more subscribers than the imported. It is possibe that the subsribers of domestic cheeses have such a small sharing that they cannot surpass the sharing of the imported cheese even though they have increased.

Thirdly（前面是Firstly,Secondly吧？）, even assume (assuming?) that the selling of the domestic cheeses will be better that imported cheeses, it is unconvincing to conclude that the domestic will have more profits than the imported cheeses. It is highly possible that the profits of selling one imported cheeses are more than the profits of ten domestic cheese, thus even the selling of  domestic cheeses are five times more than the imported cheese, the imported cheeses surpass the domestic cheeses in term of the overall profits. (讲不一定能够make profit吧？)

In sum, to covince that it is reasonable to stop stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses, the present need to provide evidence to predict that the deomestic cheeses will have a better sellings the next year. And the presendant also must present clear evidence that the domestic cheese have more subscribers than the imported cheeses. To better asses the recommendation, I need evidence that the better sellings of domestic cheeses can guarentee more profits.

觉得你写的挺好的啊，就是有点minnor errors，我也不知道怎么批才好，等我再看看。

pinuoUID: 2328081

谢谢Francis07  的修改，补上提纲。
Syllabus：
1.     去年的新店销售不能预计所以的店的后面的销售情况。因为新店Domestic卖的好，可能其他店可能import卖的好。即使其他店也同样Domestic卖的好，但也可能去年aberration，过去的其他时间都是import卖的好。
2.     survey显示尽管domestic增长了，但也可能还没有import的市场多。
3.     即使销量增加，利润也不一定增加。

pinuoUID: 2328081

谢谢lastangel 版主的批改。
每个人的都改了，好了不起，辛苦了。
我的作文大多都没有被拍过，所以很粗糙的。

Syllabus：
1.     去年的新店销售不能预计所以的店的后面的销售情况。因为新店Domestic卖的好，可能其他店可能import卖的好。即使其他店也同样Domestic卖的好，但也可能去年aberration，过去的其他时间都是import卖的好。
2.           survey的问题
1>     可能message subscribes 不能反映全部cheeses消费者，
2>     即使能代表，调查显示人们喜爱domestic的，但要买还要考虑价格等因素，并不应定domestic比imported卖的好
3>     即使domestic销量增长了也可能还没有import的市场多。
3.     即使销量增加，利润也不一定增加。

In the memo the president recommended to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses for the purpose of improving profits in all of stores. The recommendation is problematic in several aspects, and renders it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the newest store's selling of last year cannot exactly predict the selling of all the stores of the coming several years. In the memo the presents cite that the five best-selling cheeses at newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. This is insufficient to demonstrate domestic cheeses are best selling. It is entirely possible in the other stores the imported cheeses have a better selling than the domestic. And even assume the selling in newest store is representative enough for the selling of all store. It is possible that the selling of last year is just an aberration, and in the other years of the past the imported cheeses have a better selling. The trend may be that the import cheeses will sell better in the next year according to the trend of past several years even though domestic cheeses have a better performance in the last year.

In addition, an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers indicated by a recent survey of Cheeses of the World magazine cannot surely mean that the domestic cheeses have more subscribers than the imported. First, respondents of the survey, the subscribers of magazine, constitute an inappropriate sample to draw a reliable conclusion, because the subscribers are just parts of the cheeses consumers, which can hardly be representative to all consumers. Second, even I were concede that the magazine subscribers can substantially represent all the cheese consumers, the survey only indicate that increasing consumers prefer domestic cheeses, but whether they will buy the domestic cheeses or import cheeses should be determined by some other factors, such as price, service, the location of shop, and so forth. Third, even there are increasing people willing to buy domestic cheeses rather than imported cheeses. It is possible that domestic cheeses have such a small market sharing that they cannot surpass the sharing of imported cheese though they have experience an increase.

Finally, the advantage of domestic cheese over imported cheeses in selling cannot guarantee an increasing profit in all stores by stopping stocking many of varieties of imported cheese. The profits of product do not solely rely on the amount of selling, but also other factors, the costs, the prices and the like. Thus it is highly possible the costs of domestic cheeses are much bigger than imported cheeses because of more expense on advertisement and storage, or it is possible the prices of the domestic cheeses are low because of fierce competition. This may render s domestic cheeses a much smaller profit margin than imported cheeses. If so, the profits of imported cheeses will be reduced to zero when stopping stocking. Then the overall profits of stores may be reduced even the domestic cheeses experience a sharp increase in the coming years.

In sum, to convince me that it is reasonable to stop stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses, the present need to provide evidence to predict that the domestic cheeses will have a better selling the next year. And the president also must present clear evidence that the domestic cheese have more market sharing than the imported cheeses. To better asses the recommendation, I need evidence that only selling domestic cheeses can guarantee more profits.

zyp8756UID: 2594775

这打字速度怎么练就的？？？