argument71 大家拍吧拍吧不是罪

gtstoicUID: 2307652

第二篇，望达人指点

TOPIC: ARGUMENT71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
WORDS: 260          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-1 23:22:32

The argument above forecast a significant decline of the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry because of the new copper-extracting technologies which can use less electricity especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. However, the argument relies on a series of unexamined assumptions which renders it unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, the arguer provides no evidence that the new copper-extracting technologies can save more electricity than the traditional way when the proportion of copper in the ore is low. It is entirely possible that the new technologies use same or even more electricity than the traditional way under the foregoing condition while common sense and experience tells us that it is harder to find good ore in the future. It is also likely that the new technologies cost more electricity than the traditional way because of the advance equipments they need. In short, unless the author compares the new technologies with the traditional way thoroughly, the author cannot justifiably make a conclusion.

Secondly, even if the new technologies are more energy-saving than the traditional process regardless of the proportion of copper in the ore. The argument relies on a further assumption that the copper-extraction companies prefer the new methods. It is highly possible that the equipment and the operation of the new technologies are too expensive to earn a substantial profit that no buyers want to purchase them. Without any information about the costs and demand, it is not warranted that the amount of electricity will decline significantly.  

Finally, even if the copper-extraction companies are willing to replace the traditional way with the new technologies, the argument relies on an additional assumption that the total amount of copper will remain unchanged during different times. Nevertheless, the arguer obviously neglect that the data of nowadays is of little value for future construction. It is highly possible that many factors such as economy and industrial demands will increase significantly over this time span. Any of these circumstances, if true, would serve to weaken the claim.

To sum up, the author fails to convince me that the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry will decline significantly thanks to the new technologies. To strengthen the conclusion, further study and investigation are needed. The author should also provide clear proof that the new technologies are better than the traditional process under any circumstances and the total amount of copper will remain unchanged in the foreseeable future. To better evaluate the argument, I would also need the information about the costs and demand of the new technologies.

[ 本帖最后由 gtstoic 于 2007-8-3 16:44 编辑 ]