argument147 kb911小组第二次作业

WHSYINGUID: 2310541

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 448          TIME: 00:28:40          DATE: 2007-8-16 14:16:35

The author claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support the claims, the author provides several evidences such as the result of survey and others. However, the argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumption, which makes it unconvincing as it stands.
First of all, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Lacking information about the number of the video-game plays surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. At the same time, the author gives no information about the numbers who surveyed but don't responded, the larger the number, the more skeptical of the recommendation. Another problem is the representativeness of the respondents. Were they representative of all the video-game players? Were the players chosen for survey randomly or did they volunteer for the survey? Lacking such evidence the author can't draw any firm conclusion based on the study.
Even if the survey is reliable, the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old is insufficient evidence to conclude that the Whirlwind will sell more video games. Perhaps the people 10 to 25 years old don’t like the games sell by Whirlwind Company, perhaps the people bigger than 25 or fewer than 10 are the major consumers of Whirlwind. At the same time, there is no evidence that the people 10 to 25 will want to buy the games from Whirlwind at all. These possible facts will lead the conclusion unreliable as it considered.
Even if the people 10 to 25 who most likely to play video games want to buy more by the advertising campaign, it never doesn't mean that the people will buy the games from the Whirlwind. There are maybe many stores or companies sell this kind of game in the city. Perhaps other sellers can provide better service and lower price of this game, and perhaps the people will want to buy this game in another way such as by internet. The advertising campaign will do no help to the sales of the Whirlwind video games.

In conclusion, the recommendation that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months don't supported well. To strengthen the assumption, the author should provide the evidence that the people of 10 to 25 are the major customers of Whirlwind and the advertising will make them buy more video games. To evaluate the argument, I would need more information that whether there are competitors exists in the same city.



提纲：
A26
First of all, there are no evidence that the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions has direct relationship with Mr. Charles
In the second place, the author unfairly assumes that improvement of the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments bears some relation to Mr. Charles
Finally, the author assumes that Mr. Charles is the best choice, this maybe ignore the fact that someone else will be more fit to the job.

A42
First of all, there are no evidence that the per capita income in Bellegea  increased by ten percent  has direct relationship with the advertising campaign.
In the second place, even the advertising campaign can enhance the capita income, it doesn’t mean that the Paraterra should take this step.
In the third place, even we take advertising campaign, it doesn’t mean that we should hire the current director.
Finally, perhaps we have better choice.

A 50
First of all, there is no evidence that the comet striking Earth then would have vaporized. Perhaps the comet is so large that the make the Earth explode to pieces.
In the second place, the author assumes that the vapor would have been retained in the atmosphere and fall down as rain. However, the author provides no evidence that this is the case.
Finally, there are many other possible ways can form the water in the Earth.

A 163
First of all, there is no evidence that the city needs a more large and comfortable hall
In the second place, the author provides no evidence that the new hall will less cost if we consider the fact that we need a large number of money to build it.
In the third place, even if we should build a new and more comfortable hall, there is no evidence that we should tear down the old one
Finally, the author assumes that the income of the town will enhance if we rent the new hall, but it is no necessary to the case.

A 229
First of all, the fact that the new plan will better protect the staff is not well supported
In the second place, it is no evidence that the new plan will enhance the effective of the worker
Finally, the increasing of profit needs a cost profit analysis


欢迎各位狂拍
水平较菜，各位多多指出错误啊！

WHSYINGUID: 2310541

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

In this argument the author affirms that the sales trend of Whirlwind (W) video games is bound to be reversed, though it has declined over the past two years. To support the assertion, he cites the result of a recent survey, which is conducted among video-game players; also he mentions that W has held an extensive advertising campaign to introduce several such games. However, this argument suffers from a series of poor flaws, which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.
Foremost, the author fails to offer any causes of the sales declination of W video game. However, as sales trend is concerned, it is necessary and essential to seek for and analyze the basic reasons to cause the inclination, and without a reasonable analysis on the declination, the assertion, that the sales will be reversed by introducing another games, is unpersuasive and hasty. It is highly possible that it is the W’s unscientific management of personnel that leads to some problems in the administration and distribution of power, which undermine the cooperation and efficiency of W, and eventually result in the inclinations in sales. Besides, it is also possible that because of the game market condition itself is unfavorable, almost all the game producers suffer from a declination in sales including W. If so, the declination belongs to normal fluctuation and thus deserves few changes in marketing policy. Therefore, without ruling out these two or other possible scenarios, the author cannot reasonably conclude that the sales will be reversed only by introducing several games into the market.

Besides, the validity of the survey is open to doubt. Firstly, it seems the author fails to provide evidence that the total number of the respondents is large enough for a scientific and statistical survey. If the sample is too small, then the result turns out to be ineffective. Secondly, even though the survey sample is sufficient in size, it is still doubtful whether the respondents are representative of the overall video-game players especially the people who will purchase W video games. It seems the author mistakenly establish a correlation between the general video-game players and the sales of W video game. Because not all the video-game players, who responded in the survey, are bound to purchase the W video games. Therefore, before possible factors, that undermine the validity of the survey, are taken into consideration, the result of the survey will remain insufficient to support the argument.

总体来说感觉11哥的语言很不错，基本没什么要改动的地方，比起我来强多了。
但是有两点小小疑问：
1 关于扣题方面，感觉第一段的结论对题目的攻击不是很有力
2 好像文章没有结尾总结啊， 这种写法可以么？
^_^  水平有限，只能给出这些意见

phoenixlwUID: 2382912

我的这篇没粘贴完整:funk:
呵呵

phoenixlwUID: 2382912

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 448          TIME: 00:28:40          DATE: 2007-8-16 14:16:35

The author claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support the claims, the author provides several evidences such as the result of survey and others(最好具体点). However, the argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which makes it unconvincing as it stands.
First of all, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Lacking information about the number of the video-game players surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. At the same time, the author gives no information about the number of who surveyed but don't(用do not,正式文体) responded, the larger the number, the more skeptical of the recommendation(这句话感觉不大好). Another problem is the representativeness(representation) of the respondents. Were they representative of all the video-game players? Were the players chosen for survey randomly or did they volunteer for the survey?(文章中尽量避免出现过多问句, 尽量不要连用,个人意见) Lacking such evidence the author can't(can not) draw any firm conclusion based on the study.
Even if the survey is reliable, the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed(directing) at people 10 to 25 years old is insufficient evidence to conclude that the Whirlwind will sell more video games. Perhaps the people 10 to 25 years old don’t(do not) like the games sell(sold) by Whirlwind Company,(用分号连接) perhaps the people bigger than 25 or fewer than 10 are the major consumers of Whirlwind. At the same time, there is no evidence that the people 10 to 25 will want to buy the games from Whirlwind at all. These possible facts will lead the conclusion unreliable as it considered.
Even if the people 10 to 25 who most likely to play video games want to buy more by the advertising campaign, it never doesn't mean that the people will buy the games from the Whirlwind. There are maybe many stores or companies sell this kind of game in the city. Perhaps other sellers can provide better service and lower price of this game, and perhaps the people will want to buy this game in another way such as by internet. The advertising campaign will do no help to the sales of the Whirlwind video games.

In conclusion, the recommendation that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months don't supported well(has srveral flaws above/ unsound). To strengthen the assumption, the author should provide the evidence that the people of 10 to 25 are the major customers of Whirlwind and the advertising will make them buy more video games. To evaluate the argument, I would need more information that whether there are competitors exists in the same city.

1.正式文体不宜用缩写;其他小问题上已改出(个人之见啊,仅供参考)
2.思路很好,呵呵.


[ 本帖最后由 phoenixlw 于 2007-8-16 20:35 编辑 ]

prophetluoUID: 2240098

今天8号mm不在...  我改 10号哈哈
楼主28分写完 的确很佩服啊

下面是我的一点愚见:

The author claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support the claims, the author provides several evidences such as the result of survey and others. However, the argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumption, which makes it unconvincing as it stands.
First of all, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Lacking information about the number of the video-game plays surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. At the same time, the author gives no information about the numbers who surveyed but don't responded, the larger the number, the more skeptical of the recommendation. Another problem is the representativeness of the respondents. Were they representative of all the video-game players? Were the players chosen for survey randomly or did they volunteer for the survey? (不知道是不是应该做下回答,感觉)Lacking such evidence the author can't draw any firm conclusion based on the study.
Even if the survey is reliable, the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old is insufficient evidence to conclude that the Whirlwind will sell more video games. Perhaps the people 10 to 25 years old don’t like the games sell by Whirlwind Company, perhaps the people bigger than 25 or fewer than 10 are the major consumers of Whirlwind. At the same time, there is no evidence that the people 10 to 25 will want to buy the games from Whirlwind at all.(这个地方感觉需要再详细论证下 应该是说10-25prefer不等于他们会购买 然后分析购买力,电脑硬件更新换代的问题) These possible facts will lead the conclusion unreliable as it considered.
Even if the people 10 to 25 who most likely to play video games want to buy more by the advertising campaign, it never doesn't mean that the people will buy the games from the Whirlwind. There are maybe many stores or companies sell this kind of game in the city. Perhaps other sellers can provide better service and lower price of this game, and perhaps the people will want to buy this game in another way such as by internet. The advertising campaign will do no help to the sales of the Whirlwind video games.(最后一段我没想到^_^ 学习了hoho)

In conclusion, the recommendation that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months don't supported well. To strengthen the assumption, the author should provide the evidence that the people of 10 to 25 are the major customers of Whirlwind and the advertising will make them buy more video games. To evaluate the argument, I would need more information that whether there are competitors exists in the same city.