argument134 同主题第八期

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT134 - The following was taken from a guide for aspiring writers.

"New writers usually cannot convince large, prestigious publishers that their work is marketable, so they must first publish with smaller, less well-known presses to establish a sales record. But the editors of Mystery Writers Magazine have good news for aspiring writers: the number of mystery novels published in the last two years has grown significantly, and more people read mysteries than any other type of novel. In addition, almost half of the mystery novels published last year were written by first-time novel writers. Since there is apparently an expanding market for mystery novels, all publishers will want to increase the number of mystery novels they publish. Therefore, new writers should write mystery novels to increase their chances for first-time publication with a larger, prestigious company."
WORDS: 480          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-24 15:08:59

In the argument, the author concludes that new writers should write mystery novels to increase their chances for first-time publication with a larger, prestigious company. Close scrutiny on the evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the conclusion.

To begin with, the argument based on the presumptuous assumption that there is an expanding market for mystery novels. It might be the case; however, the author neglects other possible explanations for this. The scant evidence that the number of mystery novels published in the last two years has grown significantly and more people begin to read mysteries is no indication that this trend is going to continue in the future. It is possible that as the mysteries fiction is quite a new style of fiction, hence people would try to read it in the last two years, however, at present the mysteries is familiar to the readers and they do not feel it mysterious, so perhaps they would no longer read it. If true, the author's conclusion that the there is an expanding market for mystery novels is open to doubt.

Furthermore, even if the author can substantiate previous assumption, I remain unconvinced that it is a chance for the new writers. On the one hand, although half of the mystery novels published last year were written by first-time novel writers, it is not the case that those mystery novels written by first-time novel writers is the best-selling book. Perhaps most of the reader just read mystery book write by those who has already a lot of such book before and has win their fame, and they seldom read those wrote by the new writers. If true, then even if new writers write mystery novels they may still cannot gain their reputation. On the other hand, the author unfairly assumes that all publishers would increase their mystery novels; however, this is not always the case. Perhaps that larger and prestigious company regards the mystery novels as informal, thus they think that publish those novels may ruin their reputation. Therefore, they will not publish mystery novels. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author's conclusion is dubious.

Moreover, the author fails to consider that if all the new writers is suitable to write mystery novels and if they are willing to write such novels. After all, not all the new writers has the gift to write mystery novels, even if they can write other style of novel very well, it will not guarantee that they can write a good mystery novel. In addition, most of the writers write books they like, even assuming that new writers have the ability to write a good mystery novel, it might be case that they are reluctant to write just to increase their chances for first-time publication with a larger, prestigious company.

In sum, the argument is logically flawed thus unconvincing as it stands.

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