argument45 第30次作业(模考1) 请大家拍拍

pinuoUID: 2328081

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 430          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-28 10:43:01

The author, in the editorial, told us that it is global warming, which caused the sea ice to melt and prevent the deer to travel over the sea seperating the islands, that responsible for the declinde in arctic deer populations. The argument is problematic in several aspects, thus render the conclution unconvincing as it stands.

First, the author failed to provide evidence that global warming caused the melt of sea ice where the arctic deers are living, though common sense inform us that the temprature will rise as the global warming influence every parts of the world. It is highly possible that the temprature was not enough to melt the ice of sea where these deers are living, because global warming affect these areas in the time when the deer did not travel over the sea. If so, the global warming did not prevent the deer from traveling over the sea, and should not be regarded as the only cause of the decline in arctic deer populations.

In addition, even assume that global warming caused melt of sea ice, it is still unconvincing to argue that global warming caused the deer population decline. Consider the lower temperature in the time when the deers are seeking food, though the temerature will rise because of global warming, it is still highly possible that the temparature will be higher than before withan a short period of time. In this circumstance, the true reason of deer decline is the lack of food.

Thirdly, the author ingored severl other factor which may contribute to the decline in arctic deer population beseds the global warming related factors. For example, the execssive hunting, which can be the biggest threats to the survive of all the wild animals, caused the decline. It is human's tendency to attribute the negative results to nature rather themselves. Also it is entirely possible there has been a severe infected disease in the past several years which cause the illed deers dead because no medical measures were taken at that time.

In sum, to convince me that milt of sea ice which caused by global warming resulted in the decline in arctic deer populations, the author need to provide evidence the temparature is high enough to melt the sea ice in the time  of deer migration. And the author also need to present clear evidence that it is warm enough in the time when the deers seeking foods. To better assess the arguments, I need the evidence that there are no other factors rather than the temparature which may responsible for the decline.

pinuoUID: 2328081

The author, in the editorial, told us that it is global warming, which caused the sea ice to melt and prevent the deer to travel over the sea separating the islands, that responsible for the decline in arctic deer populations. The argument is problematic in several aspects, thus render it unconvincing as it stands.

First, the author failed to provide evidence that global warming caused the melt of sea ice where the arctic deer are living, though common sense inform us that the temperature will rise as the global warming influence nearly every parts of the world. It is highly possible that the temperature was still not so high that it can melt the ice of sea. Even assume the temperature was high enough to melt the ice of sea, the author provided absolutely no evidence the temperature of the place where the arctic deer living was that high. Also it is entirely possible that the temperature was high in the time when the deer regularly do not travel over the sea while remaining a low temperature that guarantee the frozen sea when the deer supposed to travel over the sea. If so, the global warming did not prevent the deer from traveling over the sea, and should not be regarded as the only cause of the decline in arctic deer populations.

In addition, even assumes that global warming caused melt of sea ice, it is still unconvincing to argue that global warming caused the deer population decline. Consider the lower temperature in the time when the deer are seeking food, though the temperature might rise because of global warming, it is still highly possible that the temperature was higher than before within a short period of time. In this circumstance, the true reason of deer decline is the lack of food rather than the melt of sea ice.

Thirdly, the author ignored several other factors which may contribute to the decline in arctic deer population besides the global warming related factors. For example, the excessive hunting, which can be the biggest threats to survives of all the wild animals, caused the decline. It is human's tendency to attribute the negative results to nature rather themselves. Also it is entirely possible there has been a severe infected disease in the past several years which cause the illed deer dead because no medical measures were taken at that time.

In sum, to convince me that milt of sea ice which caused by global warming resulted in the decline in arctic deer populations, the author need to provide evidence the temperature is high enough to melt the sea ice in the time of deer migration. And the author also need to present clear evidence that it is warm enough in the time when the deer seeking foods. To better assess the arguments, I need the evidence that there are no other factors rather than the temperature which may responsible for the decline.

dalelawUID: 2329450

问题：
常见的模版都是一般现在时态，你用过去时，这个你是怎么想的？

dalelawUID: 2329450

另外，最后的那个milt就太容易被扣分了把，这个可是引入混淆意思了

dalelawUID: 2329450

漏掉了一个重要的逻辑点：
就是hunter报告的数量减少未必可靠：两个可能，1是hunter没有找到全部的陆群，2是数量可能有一定的波动，例如最近5年如果是9，11，8，10，9的话，我们有理由认为这个是一个normal fluctuation。

有这个理由的话，你的1、2就可以合并在一个段落里面了。 碰巧今天我刚写了这个提纲。

dalelawUID: 2329450

我也贴上我的作文把，自己的水平，平时都不敢贴的，argue花了35分钟，issue花了1小时45分钟，9月12号就考试，不知道能不能好运。

dalelawUID: 2329450

TOPIC: ARGUMENT41 - The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution company with food-storage warehouses in several cities.
"Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services."
WORDS: 357          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-28 12:32:49


In this argument, the arguer suggests that all pest-control services should be returned to Buzzoff Company (B company). To support this suggestion, the arguer provides a data contrast between Fly-Away Pest-Control (FAPC) company and B company.  A close check, however, reveals that the argument has fallacies in several respects.

First of all, the contrast is unfair between FAPC's service in Palm city and B' service in Wintervale. it is not reasonable to use the value to evaluate the quality of pest-control, maybe all foods in Palm City are very expensive, and $20000 lost only stands for a pound of damaged food which is only 1% of total goods, while $10000 in Wintervale stands for all foods(100%) stored in the warehouse. It is also quiet possibile that Palm city has more kinds and amounts of pests than Wintervale city. Lacking these key information, we can not assert that FAPC provides poor service.

Besides, the arguer fails to provide detailed date when FAPC company begun to provide pest-control service. Argument only mentioned "recently", which maybe means FAPC just begin their work only for one or two weeks, not for a month or longer, the main responsibility is not for FAPC. And it is accepted considering that FAPC is a newcomer for this task in Palm city, we need more time to confirm whether or not FAPC can provide qualified service.

Finally, The arguer gives a haste conclusion that all services should be returned toB company. Even though I agree that B company has better service in Wintervale, I can not assure they can do better in Palm city and other cities. And another important question is that maybe there are more competitive pest-control companies in the market, it is not necessary to return this job to B company.

In sum, the argument fails to give sufficient and fair information to convince me that the suggestion is reasonable. To strengthen the argument, the arguer has to provide more information, that includes the proportion of damaged foods to all foods based on each pest-control company, whether or not FAPC becoming familiar with the characteristic of warehouse in Palm City, and whether or not there are other better pest-control companies in the market.

[ 本帖最后由 dalelaw 于 2007-8-28 16:23 编辑 ]

pinuoUID: 2328081

In this argument, the arguer suggests that all pest-control services should be returned to Buzzoff Company (B company). To support this suggestion, the arguer provides a data contrast between Fly-Away Pest-Control (FAPC) company and B company.  A close check, however, reveals that the argument has fallacies in several respects.

First of all, the contrast is unfair between FAPC's service in Palm city and B' service in Wintervale. it is not reasonable to use the value to evaluate the quality of pest-control, maybe all foods in Palm City are very expensive, and $20000 lost only stands for a pound of damaged food which is only 1% of total goods, while $10000 in Wintervale stands for all foods(100%) stored in the warehouse. It is also quiet possibile that Palm city has more kinds and amounts of pests than Wintervale city. Lacking these key information, we can not assert that FAPC provides poor service.

Besides, the arguer fails to provide detailed date when FAPC company begun to provide pest-control service. Argument only mentioned "recently", which maybe means FAPC just begin their work only for one or two weeks, not for a month or longer（这个地方的时间可不可以不用太明确，只要说明是一个比较B一个段的时间即可吧）, the main responsibility is not for FAPC. And it is accepted considering that FAPC is a newcomer for this task in Palm city, we need more time to confirm whether or not FAPC can provide qualified service.

Finally, The arguer gives a haste conclusion that all services should be returned toB company. Even though I agree that B company has better service in Wintervale, I can not assure they can do better in Palm city and other cities. And another important question is that maybe there are more competitive pest-control companies in the market, it is not necessary to return this job to B company.


（可以在saving money的角度说明FAPC's有比较优势）
In sum, the argument fails to give sufficient and fair information to convince me that the suggestion is reasonable. To strengthen the argument, the arguer has to provide more information, that includes the proportion of damaged foods to all foods based on each pest-control company, whether or not FAPC becoming familiar with the characteristic of warehouse in Palm City, and whether or not there are other better pest-control companies in the market.

总的很清晰，很好的。读的很好！加油！！回晚了，不好意思。

pinuoUID: 2328081

漏掉了一个重要的逻辑点：
就是hunter报告的数量减少未必可靠：两个可能，1是hunter没有找到全部的陆群，2是数量可能有一定的波动，例如最近5年如果是9，11，8，10，9的话，我们有理由认为这个是一个normal fluctuation。

有这个理由的话，你的1、2就可以合并在一个段落里面了。 碰巧今天我刚写了这个提纲。

谢谢指出，是很重要的一点。

pinuoUID: 2328081

问题：
常见的模版都是一般现在时态，你用过去时，这个你是怎么想的？

第一次有意识到这个问题，太谢谢了！！！这可是相对大的问题，我得习作一直没有人改，这么大的问题自己都没有意识到。谢谢谢谢！！