argument73 第31次作业(模考2) 请大家拍拍

pinuoUID: 2328081

TOPIC: ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
WORDS: 504          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-29 11:04:05

The author, in the memo, recommended that the company should switch from  the traditional business of selling cars to leasing cars, because his prediction that leasing cars will be more popular than buying cars. The recommendation is problematic in several respects, thus render it unconvincing as it stands.

Firs of all, the author told us the more people leased new cars  than the one who buy new cars in the past five years. This does not mean that leasing cars are popular than buying cars. At the first place, people can buy a car in one year while they can leasing the same car for several times, thus made the comparation between the number of people who leaing cars and who buying cars meaningless. Second, even assume the number of people leaing cars has suppass the number of people who buying new cars, the author faied to provide evidence that the trend will last for the coming years, it is highly possible that the phenonoma is just a aberration. In this circumstance, the prediction that leasing cars will be more popular than buying cars will be unpersuasive.

In addition, even I were convinced that more people will prefer leasing cars than buying cars, the author provide absolutely no evidence that what factors contribute to this trend, and faied to inform us whether these factors which set the trend in action in the past five years will still exists in the coming several years. For example, the government required higher tax when buying a car which result in the significant price rise in cars, also there perhaps were advertisement that the next generation cars ,which are less harmful to environment and are cheaper, would soon be invented and sell in the market, which  make the people postphone their plan of buying new cars. If these factors, which influenced people's decision of leasing or buying cars, will no longer exists, the trend will be reverse.

Third, the author's assertion, that majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individaully owned cars this year because the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years, is based on the assumption the car owners whose cars are aged will choose to lease car rather than buy a new car. However the author failed to provide such evidence, it is highly possible these people who like buy a new cars five years ago will continue choose to buy a new car when their old cars are out of using because they think owning a car is more convinient and ecnomic.

In sum, to convincing me that it is a reasonable decision to switch from selling cars to leasing cars, the author need to provide evidence that the leasing cars were actually more popular than buying cars in the past several years and this trend will last for the coming years. To better assess the recommendation, I need the evidence that those who bought cars five years ago will choose to lease cars rather than buying a new car.

pinuoUID: 2328081

The author, in the memo, recommended that the company should switch from the traditional business of selling cars to leasing cars, because his prediction that leasing cars will be more popular than buying cars. The recommendation is problematic in several respects, thus render it unconvincing as it stands.

Firs of all, the author told us the more people leased new cars than the one who buy new cars in the past five years. This does not mean that leasing cars are popular than buying cars. At the first place, people can buy a car in one year while they can lease the same car for several times, thus made the comparison between the numbers of people who leasing cars and who buying cars meaningless. Second, even assume the number of people leasing cars has surpass the number of people who buying new cars, the author failed to provide evidence that the trend will last for the coming years, it is highly possible that the phenomena is just an aberration. In this circumstance, the prediction that leasing cars will be more popular than buying cars will be unpersuasive.

In addition, the author provide absolutely no evidence that what factors contribute to this trend, and failed to inform us whether these factors which set the trend in action in the past five years will still exists in the coming several years. For example, the government requiring higher tax when buying a car which result in the significant price rise in cars, also there perhaps were advertisement that the next generation cars ,which are less harmful to environment and are cheaper, would soon be invented and sell in the market, which make the people postpone their plan of buying new cars. If these factors, which influenced people's decision of leasing or buying cars, will no longer exist, the trend will be reversed.

Third, the author's assertion, that majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned cars this year because the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years, is based on the assumption the car owners whose cars are aged will choose to lease car rather than buy a new car. However the author failed to substantiate this assumption, it is highly possible these people who like buy a new cars five years ago will continue choose to buy a new car when their old cars are out of using because they think owning a car is more convenient and economical.