argument47 第32次作业(模考3) 请大家拍拍

pinuoUID: 2328081

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 467          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-30 11:37:34

The author, in this material, draws the conclusion that it is eruption that caused the cooling of earth because he believe a loud boom,mentioned in some surviving Asian historical records, is consisitent with a volcanic eruption. The argument is problematic in several aspects, thus render it unconvincing as it stands.

TO begin with, the author ruling out the possibility of a large meteorite collision ,which can also cause the lower temperature sighnificantly because it can crate a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere and block sunlight to result in a lower global temperatrue,  is unpersuasive. Though the autor told us  a large meteorite collision would create a suden bright flash of ligh and not such historical records of that time record a flash yet have been found, it is still highly possible there were a large meteorite collision in history. First, this collision did not create a sudden bright flash of light as the usual collison we understand. Second, the observer in history failed to pay enough attentation to this collision and did not record this collison though it create a sudden bright flash. Third, the records of such collision have not been found.  One of the three possiblity can undermine the author's argument that collison is not the cause of cooling.

In addition, even I were convinced collison is not the cause, the author fails to present enough evidence to suppor his assertion that volcanic eruption  caused the cooling of of Earth. It is highly possible that the loud boom mentioned in some surviving Asian historical records of the time are symbol other phenomena rather than a volcanic eruption. For example, the earth quick, the Typhoon and anmious other possiblities. Moreover, it is entirely possible there are some errors in the records because their records are too far from now to be concidered precise. Thus volcanic eruption perhaps is not the cause.

Finally, even the author provide evidence there was truely an volcanic eruption in that time as recorded in SAsican historical records of the time, it is inefficient to believe volcanic eruption cause the cooling because the author provide absolute no evidence that the cooling cannot be caused by other phenomena. It is highly possible those phenomena caused the cooling, or at least contribute to the cooling, combined with volcanic eruption, but which factors is the major cause is up to grab.

In sum, to convince that it is volcanic eruption that cause the cooling of earth, the author need to provide evindence to rule out the possiblity that a largemeterorite collision happened in that time. and the author also need to present clear evidence the boom recorded in Asican historical records is volcanic eruption. To better asses the argument, I need the evidence that other factors cannot cause cooling of Earth in mid-six centruy.

ekintcUID: 2380428

The author, in this material, draws(此处为现在时) the conclusion that it is eruption that caused the cooling of earth because he believe a loud boom,mentioned in some surviving Asian historical records, is consistent with a volcanic eruption. The argument is problematic in several aspects, thus render it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the author's ruling out the possibility of a large meteorite collision ,which can also cause the lower temperature sighnificantly because it can crate a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere and block sunlight to result in a lower global temperatrue,  is unpersuasive.(感觉有点头重脚轻,换成It is unpersuasive that the author rules out...或许会比较好) Though the author told(此处怎么变成过去时了) us  a large meteorite collision would create a sudden bright flash of light and no such historical records of that time record a flash yet have been found, it is still highly possible there were a large meteorite collision in history. First, this collision did not create a sudden bright flash of light as the usual collison we understand. Second, the observer in history failed to pay enough attentation to this collision and did not record this collison though it create a sudden bright flash. Third, the records of such collision have not been found.  Any of the three possiblities can undermine the author's argument that collison is not the cause of cooling.

In addition, even I were convinced collison is not the cause, the author fails to present enough evidence to support his assertion that volcanic eruption  caused the cooling of the Earth. It is highly possible(表达是不是单一了一点 上段也是用的这个) that the loud boom mentioned in some surviving Asian historical records of the time is just a symbol of other phenomena rather than a volcanic eruption. For example, earthquake, Typhoon and anmious other possiblities. Moreover, it is entirely possible there are some errors in the records because their records are too far from now (表示时间久远能这么说吗?)to be concidered precisely. Thus a volcanic eruption perhaps is not the cause.(这段不是攻击可能没有火山爆发吗,怎么扯到下段的内容去了)

Finally, even the author provides evidence there was truely a volcanic eruption in that time as recorded in Asian historical records of the time, it is inefficient to believe volcanic eruption cause the cooling because the author provides absolutely no evidence that the cooling cannot be caused by other phenomena. It is highly possible(又是这句) those phenomena(哪些现象?为什么不列举一些) caused the cooling, or at least contribute to the cooling, combined with volcanic eruption, but which factors is the major cause is up to grab.

In sum, to convince(convince who?) that it is volcanic eruption that cause the cooling of Earth, the author need to provide evindence to rule out the possiblity that a large meterorite collision happened in that time. And the author also need to present clear evidence the boom recorded in Asican historical records is volcanic eruption. To better assess the argument, I need the evidence that other factors cannot cause cooling of Earth in mid-six centruy.


整篇文章的逻辑比较清晰,题目里面的问题也都一一做了攻击,只是有些地方论证不够充分,而且文章里面还是存在一些拼写和语法错误.不过总体来说是一篇不错的文章.

以上只是我个人个看法,有什么不对的还请指教 呵呵


顺便拍拍我写的吧 呵呵 谢谢了  https://bbs.gter.net/thread-730938-1-1.html

[ 本帖最后由 ekintc 于 2007-8-30 14:14 编辑 ]