Argument5 (模考11) 请大家拍拍 （写的都还没有被看过呢好心人给看看）

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT5 - The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
WORDS: 460          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-9-3 15:50:36

The author, in the newspapaer, predict that the Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug  against arthritis will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in the ten years because the a study indicate 70 percent of patients suffering from the most extreme cases arthritis preffered this new drug and the patent on Xenon will expire in three years. The argument is problematic in several aspects, thus render it unconvcing as it stands.

First of all, it is unpersuasive that pharmaceutical companies that produce drug for the treatment of arthritis will be profitable base on the fact that the the increasing people will suffer from some form of arthritis. Drug is perhaps  not the only way to treat arthritis, a lot of people may prefer other form of treatment, such as running, or moderate activities in the sun, or swimming.

Second, even assume the people will chose to buy the drug, the Perkins Pharmaceuticals will not surely be the first or the only choice, though the author provide evidence that the patent best-selling drug treatment for arthritis will expire in three years and Perkins Pharmaceuticals is showed to be popular according to a study. First, Becton Pharmaceuticals can prelong their patent before the patent of their best-selling drug Xenon expire. Second, even the Xenon were out of market , there might be other drugs which provide the similar function as Xenon, then these drug will be popular. Third, the predition that Xylan, the new drug of Perkins Pharmaceuticals, will not surely be popular, because the respondents of the study is only the most extreme cases of arthritis. Common sense tells the extreme cases of one disease always take a small part of group, thus they are not representative to all the arthritis patient.

Finally, even if I were to concede that Xylan is the most popular drug for arthritis, it is not certian that Perkins Pharmaceticals will be profitable. Because the profits is not merely depend on market. There are other factors--rather than market--have to be considered. For example, the cost of Xylan. it can earn the trust of extreme cases patients because it is made of some special material which are more expensive than the other drugs, it profit will be lower than generaly expected. Also other factors such as price, advertise cost and the like.

In sum, to convince me that perkins Pharmaceuticals will be profitable in the ten years, the author need to provide evidence that using drug is the first and main choice of most arthritis patients. And author alos need to present evidence that Xylan is popular in all the patient not just in the one with most extreme cases. To better assess the argument, I need know the market can guartee them a good profits.

[ 本帖最后由 pinuo 于 2007-9-4 18:06 编辑 ]