Argument190 [奋斗0806G]第五次作业 求拍!

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The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.
"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."

     In this letter the author recommends that Glenville feature morden music, especially the music of Richerts, at its summer concerts in order to boost advances ticket sales and attendance. To support this recommendation, the author alleges that the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, and unpredictable wheather in the past few years cannot be the reason for the decline because “many people attended the concerts even in bad weather”. The author concludes that the organizors of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. However, this argument is flawed in several respects.
       First of all, the decline of the number of people who have purchased advance tickets doesn’t guarantee that the sales of tickets has declined. It is possible that because the average number of tickets bought by each purchaser is increasing that the total amout of sales of tickets is not declining at all. Wihout ruling out this possibility, the author can’t convince me that Glenville Summer Concert series has a ticket-sale problem in the first place.
    Secondly, even if the amount of tickets sold in advance has been declining, the author concludes too hastily that the weather is not the reason for this decline. Maybe the accuracy of weather-forecasting service has been promoted greatly, and the residents in Glenville can know what the weather is like on that day they plan to attend the concert. Thus, the author cannot conclude that weather is not that reason for sales declining without ruling out this possibility.
     Thirdly, even assuming that weather is responsible for the decline in ticket sales, the author still cannot attribute this decline to choice of music. This “either-or”argument is fallacious in that it ignores other possible causes of such decline. It is entirely possible that the residents in Glenville are getting more and more busy because of the ever-growing economy. For this matter, the author provides no substantial evidence to convince me that choice of music is the only reason for this decline.
    Finally, even if that choice of music is indeed the primary reason for the decline in advance tickets sales, the author fails to provide adequate evidence that adding more modern music to concerts, and Richerts’ music in particular, will boost sales and attendence.
Maybe Glenville residents prefer recorded modern music, including Richerts’ compositions, to live concerts. Lacking evidence that this is the case, the author cannot convince me that the proposed course of action will bring about its intended results.
   In conclusion, this argument is flawed in several critical respects. To strengthen it the author must show me that the sales of tickets is indeed declining. and this decline cannot be attributed to bad weather and other reasons. And the author must also provide adequate evidence that adding mordern music can indeed promote tickets sales and attendance.

[ 本帖最后由 神奇的光 于 2007-10-21 15:48 编辑 ]

神奇的光UID: 2398821

:confused: 怎么还没有人帮忙改啊？