Argument147 【0806G desperado小组】第一次作业by坐照

wangyu0920UID: 199396

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 409       DATE: 2007-12-7 17:06:35</font><br />

提纲：
1．调查在统计上不可靠并且不一定具有代表性
2．广告面向的群体（10-25岁）未必有能力购买游戏，即使有能力买，也未必买Whirlwind的产品
3．产品销售下降的原因并未说明，或许还有管理、服务、价格等其他因素，如果这些不得到改善，销售依然无法提高

In this argument, the arguer attempts to prove that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely reversed to increase dramatically in the next few months after a two-year decline. This recommendation is based on a recent survey of video-game player who prefer games that require most up-to-date computers. Meanwhile, the author cites the fact that Whirlwind has introduced several such games directed at people 10 to 25 years old, and he also assumes that this age-group is most likely to play video games. However, I find the evidence presented throughout the argument is insufficient and logically unconvincing in several respects.

First of all, the author provides a statistically unreliable survey on which the argument depends. Perhaps the respondents come from only one city or be in the same age, or the sample amount is too small to ensure the survey widely convincing, which means they can not represent other game players whose interests might be different from them.

In addition, there is no convincing evidence to prove that the people 10 to 25 years old will buy video games from Whirlwind soon after the advertising campaign. As we all know, people at this age usually are short of money, which means many of them can not afford the costs of the video games although they wish to buy. Even if they got the money, perhaps they would choose products from other companies instead of Whirlwind because maybe other advertisement is more attractive.

Finally, even if the advertisement attracts customers to buy the games successfully, I remain unconvinced that the sales would increase dramatically in the next few months. Since the arguer has not analyzed why there was a decline in sales over the past two years. Perhaps the result was led by other factors, such as poor management, bad services, or unreasonable price. And the sales will not be increased if all these factors exist and not be improved. So I can not accept the conclusion unless there is further information to illustrate the running problems during the last two years in Whirlwind.

In sum, the argument is not well supported as it stands. Because the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the market and sales. To bolster the argument, the author must provide more clear evidence that (1) the survey is representative and statistically reliable (2) the advertisement attracts the player to buy the video-games effectively (3) what caused the decline during last two years.

[ 本帖最后由 wangyu0920 于 2007-12-7 18:39 编辑 ]

hdofrucUID: 2434623

In this argument, the arguer attempts to prove that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely reversed to increase dramatically in the next few months after a two-year decline. This recommendation(用conclusion会不会好点 ) is based on a recent survey of video-game player who prefer games that require most up-to-date computers. Meanwhile, the author cites the fact that Whirlwind has introduced several such games directed at people 10 to 25 years old, and he also assumes that this age-group is most likely to play video games. However, I find the evidence presented throughout the argument is insufficient and logically unconvincing in several respects. （感觉第一段有点长...）

First of all, the author provides a statistically unreliable survey on which the argument depends. Perhaps the respondents come from only one city or be in the same age, or the sample amount is too small to ensure the survey widely convincing, which means they can not represent other game players whose interests might be different from them. （这一段是不是可以多写一句）

In addition, there is no convincing evidence to prove that the people 10 to 25 years old will buy video games from Whirlwind soon after the advertising campaign. As we all know, people at this age usually are short of money（是不是太通俗了一点，嘿嘿）, which means many of them can not afford the costs（expenses） of the video games although they wish to buy. Even if they got the money, perhaps they would choose products from other companies instead of Whirlwind because maybe other advertisement is more attractive.(这一段感觉条理不是特别清楚，或者可以跟绿松石那样分成两块写 )

Finally, even if the advertisement attracts customers to buy the games successfully, I remain unconvinced that the sales would increase dramatically in the next few months. Since the arguer has not analyzed why there was a decline in sales over the past two years. Perhaps the result was led by other factors, such as poor management, bad services, or unreasonable price. And the sales will not be increased if all these factors exist and not be improved. So I can not accept the conclusion unless there is further information to illustrate the running problems during the last two years in Whirlwind.（这段分析好）

In sum, the argument is not well supported as it stands. Because the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the market and sales（这样的好句子我觉得应该在论政部分就给出，万一改卷的看了还以为你提出了新观点呢）. To bolster the argument, the author must provide more clear evidence that (1) the survey is representative and statistically reliable (2) the advertisement attracts the player to buy the video-games effectively (3) what caused the decline during last two years.

绿松石UID: 2427549

In this argument, the arguer attempts to prove that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely reversed to increase dramatically in the next few months after a two-year decline. This recommendationis based on a recent survey of video-game player who prefer games that require most up-to-date computers. Meanwhile, the author cites the fact that Whirlwind has introduced several such games directed at people 10 to 25 years old, and he also assumes that this age-group is most likely to play video games. However, I find the evidence presented throughout the argument is insufficient and logically unconvincing in several respects.

First of all, the author provides a statistically unreliable survey on which the argument depends. Perhaps the respondents come from only one city or be in the same age, or the sample amount is too small to ensure the survey widely convincing, which means they can not represent other game players whose interests might be different from them. （这段确实可以多写，很多模版呢）
In addition, there is no convincing evidence to prove that the people 10 to 25 years old will buy video games from Whirlwind soon after the advertising campaign. As we all know, people at this age usually are short of money, which means many of them can not afford the costs of the video games although they wish to buy. Even if they got the money, perhaps they would choose products from other companies instead of Whirlwind because maybe other advertisement is more attractive.

Finally, even if the advertisement attracts customers to buy the games successfully, I remain unconvinced that the sales would increase dramatically in the next few months. Since the arguer has not analyzed why there was a decline in sales over the past two years. Perhaps the result was led by other factors, such as poor management, bad services, or unreasonable price. And the sales will not be increased if all these factors exist and not be improved. So I can not accept the conclusion unless there is further information to illustrate the running problems during the last two years in Whirlwind.

In sum, the argument is not well supported as it stands. Because the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the market and sales（我倒觉得这个没什么问题，第三段就说这个呢）. To bolster the argument, the author must provide more clear evidence that (1) the survey is representative and statistically reliable (2) the advertisement attracts the player to buy the video-games effectively (3) what caused the decline during last two years.

三个递进用的非常好，我觉得这篇argu已经很好很好了，逻辑啊，比我强多了，简直没什么可改的。。。可能就是第一段和我一样太长了，ets明确说过不建议长的开头的，还有survey那里扩展一下更好