Argument153【Aero小组】第1次作业

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Argument 153 The following is from an editorial in the MidvaleObserver, a local newspaper.
"Ever since the 1950's, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country of Altahas steadily increased. This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch violent shows. Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who indicated that prime-time television—programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9p.m.—should show less violence. Therefore, in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time."

The argument is well presented, but nothing thorough well-reasoned. The argument has demonstrated that following the popular of television and more and more violent scenes showing on it, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country of Altahas steadily increased. And the author ,according above, has make a conclusion that television programmers should reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time in order to decrease the rate of teenage crime in Alta.

However, the citizens of Alta have failed to consider other possible alternatives to the increased rate of crimes committed by teenagers. Let's pay attention to the evidences offered by authors.

To begin with, the author fails to establish a causal relationship between the fact that television sets appear in the average home and the claim the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country. It is very possible that because other media or methods, such as internet games which pose with a great number of violent scenes, very prevail during that period, leading to the higher criminal rate than before.

Secondly, the author has provided that results of several national studies are not sufficient to support his conclusion. It is not clear in this argument whether the conditions of those nations are the same as the Alts'. It would be like that most of teenage in Alta can control themselves very well and avoid the affection of violent scenes showing on the television while a few youthful can't, so that the increased rate resulting from their behavior.

Thirdly, sample for the survey should be statistically reliable. However, from the survey we find little sign of such procedures for sampling. The author only mentioned "the respondents of even very young children" without the number of the sampling. Thus it deserves to doubt whether the respondents constitute a sufficiently large sample as to be representative of the overall statement.

Further, the author only demonstrated that "in a survey conducted by the Observer" without point out whether the level of the observer deserves our reliance and whether the survey is admitted by relevant organization of nation. And "over 90 percent of the respondents" is possible that the total number of respondents is very small sample compared to the overall population of Alta. What is more, whether the method that decreasing the violence scenes showed on TV in prime time would produce desired results need to be considered. And during the prime time of television, teenagers may be doing their homework or learn lessons at their room instead of watching TV! If like that, obviously, the method could not bring anticipated results.
The argument could be improved by providing evidences that the correlation is indeed a causal relationship between the increased criminal rate and the violent scenes displaying on television. It could be further improved by pointing out the sampling is random and the sampling is sufficient to representative of the overall population of Alta. Also the statement about what time is the concentrated period for teenagers to watch TV.