Argument53【0806G desperado小组】第十一次作业by坐照

wangyu0920UID: 199396

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 450      DATE: 2007-12-21 0:08:01

1.         研究数据不可信。样本量太小，没有交待背景，因此不具有代表性
2.         荷尔蒙与对味道和声音的敏感没有因果联系
3.         忽视了孩子成长的环境，13年的时间太长，影响因素太多，未必是荷尔蒙导致他们害羞
In this argument, the arguer asserts that melatonin would cause shyness to infants and this shyness would continue into their later lives. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a study which shows that 25 infants who have been conceived in early autumn showed signs of mild distress to unfamiliar stimuli. In addition, he assumes that most of these children show signs of distress identified themselves as shy according to a follow-up study 13 years later. However, I find this argument insufficient as it stands in several aspects.

To begin with, the result of the study upon which the argument relies is statistically unreliable. On the one hand, the number of the infants contributing to the study is too small to be representative. On the other hand, without knowing more information about the infants such as the sex, birth places, parents' backgrounds, we can not accept the arguer's conclusion.

Moreover, there is no convincing research result, however, to support any causal relationship between melatonin and the infants' signs of mild distress. It is entirely possible that it was the unusual odor and unknown voice led to the distress which probably had nothing to do with the melatonin. Or perhaps other kind of hormones that affect some certain other functions caused the signs of mild distress rather than the melatonin. Without further study that proves the cause-effect relation between melatonin and distress, any claims made about them are doubtful.

Finally, even if it was the melatonin that caused the distress, the arguer fails to take into account that the follow-up study lends little support to the argument because its own credibility is suspect. Obviously, the arguer ignores other likely factors that affect the characteristics of the children. It is possible that the circumstance under which the children grew up led to their shyness. In addition, 13 years is such a long period that numerous of things would happen to affect their characteristics. Any further linkage between melatonin and children's shyness requires more information and therefore is not acceptable by the evidence so far available.

In conclusion, the argument is not well supported as it stands. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more evidence that (1) the study of the 25 infants is statistically reliable and logically convincing, and they are representative of all the infants (2) further study of the linkage between melatonin and infants' distress to make sure that there was indeed causal relationship between them (3) the circumstance under which the children grew up, such as where do they live, what kind of education they receive, who are their friends, making sure that nothing but the melatonin cause their shyness

hongdanUID: 2228730

In this argument, the arguer asserts that melatonin would cause shyness to infants and this shyness would continue into their later lives. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a study which shows that 25 infants who have been conceived in early autumn showed signs of mild distress to unfamiliar stimuli. In addition, he assumes that most of these children show signs of distress identified themselves as shy according to a follow-up study 13 years later. However, I find this argument insufficient as it stands in several aspects.

To begin with, the result of the study upon which the argument relies is statistically unreliable. On the one hand, the number of the infants contributing to the study is too small to be representative. On the other hand, without knowing more information about the infants such as the sex, birth places, parents' backgrounds, we can not accept the arguer's conclusion.这段很简洁，可以稍微在每个可能性之后加上一句分析的话。

Moreover, there is no convincing research result, however, to support any causal relationship between melatonin and the infants' signs of mild distress. It is entirely possible that it was the unusual odor and unknown voice led to the distress which probably had nothing to do with the melatonin. Or perhaps other kind of hormones that affect some certain other functions caused the signs of mild distress rather than the melatonin. Without further study that proves the cause-effect relation between melatonin and distress, any claims made about them are doubtful.我觉得有这种可能性，可是感觉很单薄，可以稍微详细一些。

Finally, even if it was the melatonin that caused the distress, the arguer fails to take into account that the follow-up study lends little support to the argument because its own credibility is suspect. Obviously, the arguer ignores other likely factors that affect the characteristics of the children. It is possible that the circumstance under which the children grew up led to their shyness. In addition, 13 years is such a long period that numerous of things would happen to affect their characteristics. Any further linkage between melatonin and children's shyness requires more information and therefore is not acceptable by the evidence so far available.

In conclusion, the argument is not well supported as it stands. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more evidence that (1) the study of the 25 infants is statistically reliable and logically convincing, and they are representative of all the infants (2) further study of the linkage between melatonin and infants' distress to make sure that there was indeed causal relationship between them (3) the circumstance under which the children grew up, such as where do they live, what kind of education they receive, who are their friends, making sure that nothing but the melatonin cause their shyness

主要错误都已经找出，结构框架很清楚。这篇argu开头结尾写得很好，分析得很详细，但是在考场是不是要花费很长的时间呢？我想问一下开头结尾你大概花了多长的时间？我现在觉得写个开头都要花上大概5分钟，很愁呀。

但是，我觉得你按照北美模板来写argu，里面很多分析的不是很透。建议看看官方范文，看看里面的评分标准。我也正在学习当中。

wangyu0920UID: 199396

我也差不多要5分钟的时间，现在相当愁，今天的这篇全力想写快一些，可还是用了45分钟
我觉得有一个矛盾，要想分析的透彻一些，字数很轻易就超过了500，这样的话30分钟真的很难完成啊，你怎么看呢？

hongdanUID: 2228730

我觉得很有可能完成，我尝试过了。可以完成的。因为argu只要把意思表达清楚，我觉得用不着推敲语言，只要把意思表达清楚就行了。你可以尝试一下，我就是觉得开头总结原文花的时间比较多。