argument45[desperado] 第十三次作业 by Grace

grace040802UID: 2348819

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 474          TIME: 00:30:41          DATE: 2007-12-22 23:03:48

提纲:
  1 全球变暖不一定北极鹿生存的地区变暖
  2 猎户的报告不是很可靠.
  3 两件是同事发生不代表有因果关系. 鹿数量下降另有他因.

The editorial asserts that the global warming trends, which have caused the sea ice to melt results in the decline of arctic deer populations, reported by the local hunters, on the assumption that the ice melting makes deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. This assertion is specious on the grounds, in three respects.

First, the fact that the global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt provides little support to the increasing temperature of the arctic region, where the arctic deer live. Perhaps because of its location nearby the pole of the North, the effect of the global warming is insufficient to cause most of the sea ice to melt, and there are still left enough ice for the deer to travel over it. Perhaps the local temperature decreases on the contrary. Without providing evidence that whether the temperature of those region, I hardly concede that the sea ice is melting.

Second, the reports from the hunters that the deer population is declining are not reliable. Perhaps the hunters who don't capture the arctic deer due to their mistaking the time when the deer come out for searching food and the place where come out declare that the number of the deer decreases. Yet, in fact, the total number of deer does not decline. Without the scientific data about the deer population, the assumption is unconvincing.

Third, even that the local temperature has already and the decline of the deer populations actually exists, it does not naturally warrant that the global warming trends has contributed, and thus is causal to such population decline. The observed phenomena, in fact, say little more than that these two events are synchronic to each other and that is all. Moreover, the arguer hastily generalize that the growing temperatures make the deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, thus resulting the death of deer. It is unwarranted that the environment change will lead to the living -patterns change of the deer-let alone the death. It is possible that the unduly hunting causes the decreasing of the deer population. Or perhaps for certain reasons, the gregarious deer migrate to other places for living altogether, due to the significantly decrease of the plants on which they feed. I am unconvinced that the linkage between the warming and the death of deer, unless the arguer rules out all of the possibilities and provides evidence about the relevance of the two phenomena.

In sum, the editorial is not well supported. To assert the conclusion, the arguer should provide the scientific number of the deer population demonstrating the decline, and the evidence that whether the climate changes to be warm. To better strengthen the conclusion, the arguer should list out the probable reason which might be dangerous for the deer.

hongdanUID: 2228730

前两个错误的分析显得稍微单薄了一些。而且如果能衔接好的话，可把两个错误融为一段，不过那样就更难写了。整体来说还是很不错的。

绿松石UID: 2427549

我觉得现在错误大家都能找出来，模版也都差不多，但是我觉得这样只能顶多拿4粉，如果没有丰富的逻辑层次与结构，象北美很多argu范文我觉得就很丰富，但是不知道为什么自己就写不出来呢 提出一下观点 大家可以讨论