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发表于 2008-1-28 20:45:23
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
In this argument, the author recommends that since the company could reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of the stores is to concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses and discontinue to stock many of varieties of imported cheese. In order to support his recommendation, the author has cited some evidence that the situation of best-selling in their newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin and the recent survey by Chesses of the World magazine indicates an interesting preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. However, there are some crucial fallacies exist in the evidence.
First of all, whether a store could attain benefit is due to many elements, such as the demand and the supply. The author fails to provide the evidence to validate there is a great demand for domestic cheese from market indeed so that the recommendation deserves to doubt. Even if customers prefer to purchase the domestic, it does not mean the imported cheeses have lost its market. If there are stable groups who would like to buy imported cheeses for the special taste or other characteristic, the imported cheeses are still popular. Furthermore, if the interest from the imported cheese is a higher proportion compared to the domestic cheeses selling, it is afraid the recommendation could not produce anticipated result.
Secondly, the survey could lend little support to the recommendation. Firstly, the sample should be statistically credible, however, the sample of subscribers could not be random obviously, and the responses of them also could not present other customers’ who do not buy the magazine. Moreover, even if the preference of subscribers could represent other customers’ tendency, it is equal to that they would like to buy domestic cheeses. If most of subscribers only interested in the methods and program of making domestic cheeses, and comparing to buy cheeses from store, they prefer to do it by themselves. For that matter, the interest of the store could be improved by using the author’s recommendation.
In addition, the selling situation in the newest store could not support the author’s recommendation. It is entirely possible that the situation in newest store is individual, and very different from other stores where imported cheese is best-selling. Even though the fact is domestic cheeses are best-selling in most of stores, the recommendation is too rushed because the time is too short. In common sense, the situation formed in one year could not represent the developed tendency in certain field, especially in food industry for the taste of customers are formed in a long time. In the light of the state, the recommendation is unconvinced.
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. In order to improve the argument, the author should provide relative evidence to validate the recommendation would bring interest to the store indeed, and the tendency of purchasing domestic cheeses has formed. |
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