Argument59 飞越dreams小组第二次作业

lyokaUID: 2451632

Argument59
Word:         384   Time: unlimited         
From the fact that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in years with heavy sunspot activity, the author draws the conclusion that people at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. However, there are some flaws which indicate it is not necessarily the case.

In the first place, the record only reveals that the worldwide flu epidemics occurred in those years in which the sunspot activity was heavy, but there is no necessary causal relationship between them. Maybe these concurrency happened just by accident. At the same time, the given examples are too limited, there may be tens of years during which the sunspot acted heavily, but only in those six years the flu epidemics were accidently worst. The author fails to establish a causal relationship between the two things. Before further information is present, the conclusion is lack of credibility.

In the second place, granted that the sunspot activities have something to do with the occurrence of the flu epidemics, there is no evidence that it was the prolonged exposure to the sun that caused the disease. The arguer even provides no information about how long the ill were exposed to the sun. There is equally possibility that it was the ones who always stayed in door that caught ill easier. And if this is true, people at especial risk for the flu should be encouraged to expose themselves to the sun, which is just opposite to what the author says.

Last but not least, the author only tells us that in the years with heavy sunspot activity the earth received significant more solar energy than usual years, but there is no sign that the energy was contained in the sunshine. It is completely possible that the change of magnetic field energy played a more important role, which has nothing to do with the exposure to the sun.

All in all, the conclusion accomplished by the author is too hasty and lack of credibility. The author should provide more to ensure the causal relationship between the occurrence of the flu epidemics and the activities of the sunspot. In the absence of any further information, the author can not rule out other possibilities, and also, the conclusion just can not be quite persuading.

shallinZUID: 2449645

From the fact that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in years with heavy sunspot activity, the author draws the conclusion that people at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. However, there are some flaws which indicate it is not necessarily the case.

(第一段写的很简洁)
In the first place, the record only reveals that the worldwide flu epidemics occurred in those years in which the sunspot activity was heavy, but there is no necessary causal relationship between them. Maybe these concurrency happened just by accident. At the same time, the given examples are too limited, there may be tens of years during which the sunspot acted heavily, but only in those six years the flu epidemics were accidentally worst. The author fails to establish a causal relationship between the two things. Before further information is present, the conclusion is lack of credibility.

(理由和例子都很简明扼要)
In the second place, granted that the sunspot activities have something to do with the occurrence of the flu epidemics, there is no evidence that it was the prolonged exposure to the sun that caused the disease. The arguer even provides no information about how long the ill were exposed to the sun. There is equally possibility that it was the ones who always stayed in door that caught ill easier. And if this is true, people at especial risk for the flu should be encouraged to expose themselves to the sun, which is just opposite to what the author says.

Last but not least, the author only tells us that in the years with heavy sunspot activity the earth received significant more solar energy than usual years, but there is no sign that the energy was contained in the sunshine. It is completely possible that the change of magnetic field energy played a more important role, which has nothing to do with the exposure to the sun.(感觉好像没写完!这段要加上能量上升为什么不会导致感冒)

All in all, the conclusion accomplished by the author is too hasty and lack of credibility. The author should provide more to ensure the causal relationship between the occurrence of the flu epidemics and the activities of the sunspot. In the absence of any further information, the author can not rule out other possibilities, and also, the conclusion just can not be quite persuading.

整篇写的简明扼要,要是例证在多些就更好,可能我是菜鸟找不出什么问题吧

欢迎回拍啊

[ 本帖最后由 shallinZ 于 2008-2-3 15:43 编辑 ]

纳兰馨儿UID: 2437109

Argument59Word:         384   Time: unlimited         

From the fact that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in years with heavy sunspot activity, the author draws the conclusion that people at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. However, there are some flaws which indicate it is not necessarily the case.

great~!

In the first place, the record only reveals that the worldwide flu epidemics occurred in those years in which the sunspot activity was heavy, but there is no necessary causal relationship between them. Maybe these concurrency happened just by accident. At the same time, the given examples are too limited, there may be tens of years during which the sunspot acted heavily, but only in those six years the flu epidemics were accidently worst.(最好举了例子之后要加个阐述：If so, the flu epidemics did not caused by the incommon sunspot.) The author fails to establish a causal relationship between the two things. Before further information is present, the conclusion is lack of credibility.

In the second place, granted that the sunspot activities have something to do with the occurrence of the flu epidemics, there is no evidence that it was the prolonged exposure to the sun that caused the disease. The arguer even(貌似不是很恰当) provides no information about how long the ill were exposed to the sun（病人暴露在太阳中？不是很通~是不是这个意思the relationship between the exposure time and the ill condition）. There is equally possibility that it was the ones who always stayed in door that caught ill easier. （语法上有问题）And if this is true, people at especial（special）risk for the flu should be encouraged to expose themselves to the sun, which is just opposite to what the author says.

Last but not least, the author only tells us that in the years with heavy sunspot activity the earth received significant more solar energy than usual years, but there is no sign that the energy was contained in the sunshine. It is completely possible that the change of magnetic field energy played a more important role, which has nothing to do with the exposure to the sun.

All in all, the conclusion accomplished by the author is too hasty and lack of credibility. The author should provide more to ensure the causal relationship between the occurrence of the flu epidemics and the activities of the sunspot. In the absence of any further information, the author can not rule out other possibilities, and also, the conclusion just can not be quite persuading(persuasive?).

结构和语言都不错，分析再多一点就好了~



[ 本帖最后由 纳兰馨儿 于 2008-2-4 18:13 编辑 ]

纳兰馨儿UID: 2437109

先下附件吧,发上来的有格式问题~~~~

[ 本帖最后由 纳兰馨儿 于 2008-2-4 17:45 编辑 ]