argument166 飞跃dreams小组-第三次作业

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Argument166.
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The arguer believes that Cold-Away is more effective than Coldex for the simple reason that it has been on the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. However, the conclusion is not quite convincing as it seems.

The first flaw that weakens the argument is that the fact that Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer cannot lend strong support to that it is more effective. It is true that only the good can be left by the effect of time, but it is nonsense to use it here for the time we consider is too short. As is well known to all, the effect of a new medicine usually outweighs that of an existing one as a result of the improvement of technology. And nobody can neglect the fact that if a new thing wants to compete with the existing ones, it must be better than the older ones or it can never find room in such a competitive market. In either explanation, the Cold-Away is less effective, which is just opposite to the arguer’s opinion.

The second flaw that I want to mention is that although Cold-Away is used in more hospitals it does not necessarily have better effect. Since it has been on the market for a longer time, it is natural that the medicine is more popular with the hospitals and doctors. Besides, it is not only the effect that influences the choice of the hospitals; the profit of the medicine may also have some effect on it. Considering all these possibilities, it is not so clear that which medicine has a better effect.

Before I come to my conclusion, I want to point that it is almost natural that the competition between these two brands will lead each one to exaggerate the side effect of the other, and the existing fact cannot give convincing reasons that one is better than the other.

To sum up, the conclusion the arguer reaches is of little credibility. Any result comparing the effects of the two medicines only based on the existing fact is too hasty and unconvincing. In order to get a credible comparison of the two medicines, a research concerning the effects, rather than the existing time or the population, of them should be taken.