Argument97 [飞跃dreams小组] 第三次作业

纳兰馨儿UID: 2437109

Argument97-"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
Time: unlimited

①survey。全国情况不说明地方情况。
②没有证据证明收视率增加是因为体育节目。时间顺序不说明因果联系。
3样本差异,错误类比。观众的爱好不同。


In this argument, the recommends an increase in sports broadcasts can help them to gain a larger audience and results in company profitability. The support evidences involve the result of the national survey of men’s favor on television and a similar change, which is successful in another station WACK. Yet, close scrutiny on the evidence reveals that it lends little credible support to the to the conclusion.

Most obviously, the survey at the beginning of the speech is lack of persuasion. Since the arguer makes a claim about men’s general favor in sports programs, samples for the survey should be represent in the content of the whole nation. However, from the survey quoted in this argument, we find no sign of such procedures for divisional samplings, and have good reasons to doubt if the sample is not representative enough to reflect the local altitude of sports programs.

Secondly, the author assumes that it is the expanding in sports broadcasts that caused the increase of the population of audience. This assertion commits the fallacy of assuming that just because the second event happened after the first one, then the letter one has been caused by the former one. The causal claim based on the correlation is premature unless the arguer can rule out other factors. For example, possibly a new range of thrilling operas was set out so that it attracted more young audience. Yet another possibility is that a popular emcee was hired, therefore the fans are more likely to switch to that channel. Unless the arguer confirm that the larger audience mainly came from the effect of the sports programs, this evidence is not worthwhile.

Moreover, although there are points of comparison, many dissimilarities are remained. The argument, thus ,relying on the assumption that the audiences of WACK is analogous to those of KICK, in all aspects, is so weak. It is , for example, possible that the city where KICK located is cater to industry that is most men here are more concern about economy and government policy, comparatively, granted that the survey is valid, people’s focus on  sports may result from a famous football team locally, such as Manchester. It is also possible that people do not like to watch TV, thus any change in the schedule is feeble. Therefore, only relying on such a simple mimicry of the two areas, there would be little persuasion.

Finally, given that all the above is efficient ,the author still assumes too hastily that the revision will necessarily result in company profitability. However, it is not the case. Considering that the two most important things concerning with profit are the income and the spent. Lack of any information about the advertiser’s possible reaction about such change and the cost on the new investments in sports broadcasts, we cannot safely draw any significant conclusion or prediction.

To sum up, this argument is not convincing as it stands. Not only does it leave out such key issues on the difference of the audiences, but also ignores the costs and results of this plan. To substantiate it, the author should provide sufficient evidence to prove the effectiveness of the new plan. To better evaluate this arguments, a further survey on the habits of the local people and the favor of the advertiser is needed.  

lyokaUID: 2451632

Argument97-"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
Time: unlimited

①survey。全国情况不说明地方情况。
②没有证据证明收视率增加是因为体育节目。时间顺序不说明因果联系。
3样本差异,错误类比。观众的爱好不同。


In this argument, the recommends an increase in sports broadcasts can help them to gain a larger audience and results in company profitability. The support evidences involve the result of the national survey of men’s favor on television and a similar change, which is successful in another station WACK. Yet, close scrutiny on the evidence reveals that it lends little credible support to the conclusion.
              开头很简洁明了

Most obviously, the survey at the beginning of the speech is lack of persuasion. Since the arguer makes a claim about men’s general favor in sports programs, samples for the survey should be represent in the content of the whole nation. However, from the survey quoted in this argument, we find no sign of such procedures for divisional samplings, and have good reasons to doubt if the sample is not representative enough to reflect the local altitude of sports programs.
              质疑sample is representative.

Secondly, the author assumes that it is the expanding in sports broadcasts that caused the increase of the population of audience. This assertion commits the fallacy of assuming that just because the second event happened after the first one, then the latter one has been caused by the former one. The causal claim based on the correlation is premature unless the arguer can rule out other factors. For example, possibly a new range of thrilling operas was set out so that it attracted more young audience. Yet another possibility is that a popular emcee was hired, therefore the fans are more likely to switch to that channel. Unless the arguer confirm that the larger audience mainly came from the effect of the sports programs, this evidence is not worthwhile.
              质疑因果关系，列举的其他因素不错

Moreover, although there are points of comparison, many dissimilarities (much dissimilarity, dissimilarity 不可数) are remained. The argument, thus, relying on the assumption that the audiences of WACK are analogous to those of KICK, in all aspects, is so weak. It is, for example, possible that the city where KICK located is cater to industry that is most men here are more concern about economy and government policy, comparatively, granted that the survey is valid, people’s focus on sports may result from a famous football team locally, such as Manchester. It is also possible that people do not like to watch TV, thus any change in the schedule is feeble. Therefore, only relying on such a simple mimicry of the two areas, there would be little persuasion.
              质疑类比，可能的差异找的很到位

Finally, given that all the above is efficient, the author still assumes too hastily that the revision will necessarily result in company profitability. However, it is not the case. Considering that the two most important things concerning with profit are the income and the spent. Lack of any information about the advertiser’s possible reaction about such change and the cost on the new investments in sports broadcasts, we cannot safely draw any significant conclusion or prediction.
              质疑increase profit,

To sum up, this argument is not convincing as it stands. Not only does it leaves out such key issues on the difference of the audiences, but also ignores the costs and results of this plan. To substantiate it, the author should provide sufficient evidence to prove the effectiveness of the new plan. To better evaluate this argument, a further survey on the habits of the local people and the favor of the advertiser is needed.  
              结尾总的概括要点并提出改进方案

              文章整体的思路明确，论述角度也很全面，各段的主题句比较明显。如果能在安排顺序的时候考虑一下各个漏洞的重要性会更好一些。例如，第一个质疑sample明显没有第二三个重要，如果改一下顺序会使文章重点更突出。

[ 本帖最后由 lyoka 于 2008-2-12 12:04 编辑 ]