argument45[jet]小组第三次作业

O--honeyUID: 2452493

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


字数：442  时间：08.2.5
The arguer relates the decline in arctic deer populations to the global warming trends, and he listed his reasons as follows: the arctic deer seek for food by moving over ice from island to island on which sustain the food they feed, but the global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt, so the deer are unable to cross the island over the ice, in this case, the decline in arctic deer populations is just because of shortage of food, after a close examination of his reasons could reveal how groundless his argues are.


Firstly, the decline of the arctic deer may not only related to the global warming, several other possibilities also account, what if the warm trend in the weather condition has caused a serious uncomfortable factor that arctic deer can not adopted to, so hundreds of them are dead on this, or what if global warming have nothing to do with it, but other factors do, such as the food on the island have been too short to support all of the arctic deer, so most of them are dead due to shortage of food, or some disease flow over the deer family that raised serious declination and so on. If the arguer can not eliminate those possibilities, he can not give the hasty conclusion that it is the global warming commit this crime!


Secondly, the arguer just point out that the global warming could have caused the ice to melt, but he did not observe the ice—melting condition on the way the arctic deer have to cross from, there is also a possibility that those ice on that live—way are not melting at all, even if we admit that the ice have melted, the reasons may not be they can not get over to the food-island, it can be that the melting ice cause a raising of sea level which severely result in the sinking of the island and drunk of the arctic deer.

Thirdly, the arguer did not point out the exact time when this decline has happened, he only say the time when the report has been published is the same with the trend of the global warming, there is also a possibility that the report has been published long after the arctic deer have been declined, or the process of declination is very long, even long before the trend of global warming have even happened!

In sum, only if the arguer ruled out those possibilities, and give some evidence to eliminate those possibilities, he can not just assess the coincidence is the only reason that caused the decline of arctic deer!

cascadeUID: 2454141

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


字数：442  时间：08.2.5
The arguer relates the decline in arctic deer populations to the global warming trends, and he listed his reasons as follows: the arctic deer seek for food by moving over ice from island to island on which sustain the food they feed, but the global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt, so the deer are unable to cross the island over the ice, in this case, the decline in arctic deer populations is just because of shortage of food, after a close examination of his reasons could reveal how groundless his argues are.


Firstly, the decline of the arctic deer may not only related to the global warming, several other possibilities also account, what if the warm trend in the weather condition has caused a serious uncomfortable factor that arctic deer can not adopted to, so hundreds of them are dead on this, or what if global warming have nothing to do with it, but other factors do, such as the food on the island have been too short to support all of the arctic deer, so most of them are dead due to shortage of food, or some disease flow over the deer family that raised serious declination and so on. If the arguer can not eliminate those possibilities, he can not give the hasty conclusion that it is the global warming commit this crime!


Secondly, the arguer just point out that the global warming could have caused the ice to melt, but he did not observe the ice—melting condition on the way the arctic deer have to cross from, there is also a possibility that those ice on that live—way are not melting at all, even if we admit that the ice have melted, the reasons may not be they can not get over to the food-island, it can be that the melting ice cause a raising of sea level which severely result in the sinking (我觉得应该是被淹没而不是沉没)of the island and drunk of the arctic deer.

Thirdly, the arguer did not point out the exact time when this decline has happened, he only say the time when the report has been published is the same with the trend of the global warming, there is also a possibility that the report has been published long after the arctic deer have been declined, or the process of declination is very long, even long before the trend of global warming have even happened!(你这段应该是想说可能在报告之前鹿的树木就开始减少了,从而说明可能有别的原因使鹿的数量减少. 但是这不能排除现在global warming 是主要因素。所以我觉得这段的力度不够。)

In sum, only if the arguer ruled out those possibilities, and give some evidence to eliminate those possibilities, he can not just assess the coincidence is the only reason that caused the decline of arctic deer!（结尾也比较简单，可以再深化一点）