Argument38--Thrive小组第4次作业 欢迎来拍，榴莲必回

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argument 38
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

正文：
  
In this memo, the arguer recommend that the daily use of Ichthaid which refers to a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil could significantly reduce absenteeism in West Merai’s schools and workplaces. To substantiate his point, he cited that people in East Meria seldom visit the doctor for the treatment of colds in that their fish consumption is very high. And colds are the main reason for the absenteeism, therefore reducing the rate of getting colds also result in the reducing of absenteeism. At first glance, the recommendation is well presented, but further inspection shows that it has many logical flaws.
  
First of all, the arguer flatly states, without any supporting evidence, that it is the high consumption of fish leads to the people’s low rate of getting colds in East Meria. Although the assumption is entirely possible, it also has many other alternative explanations. Maybe people in East Meria have a stronger and healthier body than people in West Meria, in which East Meria’s people have a better resistance to colds. Or East Meria’s Public Health Council establish a practice to force people there to inject colds vaccine very year. Without ruling out these possible factors, the arguer can not easily draw the assumption above.
  
Secondly,  even if the high consumption of fish is the reason for people’s low rate of getting colds in East Meria. The arguer falsely assume that the daily use of Ichthaid could prevent colds.While it suffers flaws in the following aspects: First, the arguer simply equates fish consumption with the fish consumption by people eating, however, there are other possible ways of fish consumption. For example, food processing industry in East Meria is well developed, therefore lots of fish are processed into fish can and sold into other places. Second, even if the fish is totally used for people’s eating. The arguer overlooks the difference between fish and Ichthaid, Ichthaid is only a kind of nutritions supplement derived from fish oil, common sense tells me that fish oil will loose lots of nutrition elements through the process from fish to fish oil , if the nutrition elements which could prevent colds is eliminated from the process, will the Ichthaid works to prevent West Meria people from getting colds? The answer is questionable.
   
Thirdly, even if daily use of Ichthaid could prevent colds, the arguer unfairly holds that if daily use of Ichthaid is an effective way to reduce absenteeism in West Meria’s school and work. Although colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, the arguer fail to provide much evidence to show how many people’s absenteeism is really caused by colds not use colds as a given excuse. Maybe many people have their own business which is not suitable to give as a excuse of absenteeism, therefore they just say they get colds instead. To make his assumption more convincing, the arguer should provide the information that if people’s absenteeism is really caused by colds.
   
To sum up, this recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To make the argument more persuasive, the arguer should provide more evidence that high consumption of fish could prevent colds and the Ichthaid have the same effect of eating fish. To better evaluate this recommendation , I would need more information of cold-cause babsenteeism’s real proportion.