Argument53--Thrive小组第6次作业，欢迎榴莲

z12y12l12UID: 2452277

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

In this argument, the author argues that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. The conclusion seems reasonable at first glance, however, the existence of several critical fallacies and logical faults marked this argument unconvincing.

The first thing that I want to point out is that the author does not succeed in establishing a causal relationship between the conceiving season and the infants' signs of such stress. There is a possibility that every infant in their age would show just the same signs as this group of 25 infants do; or we would ask a question that is 25 infants a enough sample for the experiment? Without a controlled experiment and a detailed inspect on this issue, the author's assumption that the infants who have been conceived in early autumn is more likely to show such a sign of distress is open to doubt.

Turing to the next, even some study proved the above assumption, the author's statement, that it is the melatonin which caused such distress, is not proved by the author. The only evidence that the author provided is that in early autumn mothers’ production of melatonin would naturally increase. However, he did not realize any possible alternatives that would cause such a distress. It could be simply other hormones that would be the case, or simply the born time of a baby that would cause the same effect. Without ruling out such alternatives, the author's conclusion is not as persuasive as it stands.

Further more, the author cited an unconvincing follow-up study. The study says that more than half of these children indentified themselves as shy. Nevertheless, it is entirely possible that the most teenagers in their age would indentify themselves as shy, even they are not shy at all. And no evidence was provided to support that these teenagers in the experiment are as shy as shy as they define themselves. The author's assertion that more than half of these teenagers are shy is not proved.

The last but not the least, the author provided no evidence to support his conclusion that this kind of shyness will continues into later life. Again, the author did not consider other factor, such as the circumstances in which a person lives, that would affect people's character. Even some people are shy in their childhood, they could get rid of shyness when they became adult.

To sum up, without some more convincing evidence and studies, the author's conclusion that melatonin before birth is the main reason of shyness is unreasonable.

最近对argument有些感觉了，但是有些表达法积累的还不够，另外字数还是400左右，并没有像某些牛人那样洋洋洒洒500字，说明问题还没有分析全面，或者能够使用的好的句型还是没有弄出来。
这篇430字，不伦不类的限时50分钟，其实应该40分钟可以搞定的，但是前10分钟写的全都删了......

westwindyiUID: 2453478

个人意见：已经在文中给出，仅供参考。我猜楼主是思考过原argument的论证过程的，然后想根据它的论证过程加以反驳，如果加上一些连接词会有较好的效果。比如“即使。。成立。。”
In this argument, the author argues that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. The conclusion seems reasonable at first glance, however, the existence of several critical fallacies and logical faults marked this argument unconvincing.（有的写法说可以考虑添加上原文的论证过程，至少凑个字数，嘿嘿）

The first thing that I want to point out is that the author does not succeed in establishing a causal relationship between the conceiving season and the infants' signs of such stress. There is a possibility that every infant in their age would show just the same signs as this group of 25 infants do; or we would ask a question that is 25 infants a enough sample for the experiment? Without a controlled experiment and a detailed inspect on this issue, the author's assumption that the infants who have been conceived in early autumn is more likely to show such a sign of distress is open to doubt.（这段，呃，我个人觉得原文并没有在怀孕时间上存在错误，作者只是指出发现了这样的现象，并不是下结论说这个怀孕时间会导致shyness。质疑这个研究的credibility是可行的）

Turing to the next, even some study proved the above assumption, the author's statement, that it is the melatonin which caused such distress, is not proved by the author. The only evidence that the author provided is that in early autumn mothers’ production of melatonin would naturally increase. However, he did not realize any possible alternatives that would cause such a distress. It could be simply other hormones that would be the case, or simply the born time of a baby that would cause the same effect. Without ruling out such alternatives, the author's conclusion is not as persuasive as it stands.

Further more, the author cited an unconvincing follow-up study. The study says that more than half of these children indentified themselves as shy. Nevertheless, it is entirely possible that the most teenagers in their age would indentify themselves as shy, even they are not shy at all. And no evidence was provided to support that these teenagers in the experiment are as shy as shy as they define themselves. The author's assertion that more than half of these teenagers are shy is not proved.

The last but not the least, the author provided no evidence to support his conclusion that this kind of shyness will continues into later life. Again, the author did not consider other factor, such as the circumstances in which a person lives, that would affect people's character. Even some people are shy in their childhood, they could get rid of shyness when they became adult.

To sum up, without some more convincing evidence and studies, the author's conclusion that melatonin before birth is the main reason of shyness is unreasonable.