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发表于 2008-2-16 19:17:08
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
In order to support the author's recommendation, lots of evidences are provided, but all these evidences seem unsubstantial to bolster the author's assertion.
To begin with, the author cites that the people in nearby East Meria only go to the doctor once or twice per year for treatment of colds, and all these are due to the contribution of eating plenty of fish. There are two assumptions in this reasoning which may be not so convincing. (1). the author thinks that if people go to doctor for curing colds only once or twice, they would just catch colds for only once or twice. But this is unreasonable. Maybe when some East Meria people catch a clod, rather than receive a treatment in clinic, they prefer to eat some pills and get some rest at home. (2). the author assumes that the East Meria people catch fewer colds due to the large amount of fish-consuming . There is no specific evidence to support this assumption. Perhaps they catch fewer colds because the weather there are more comfortable and pleasant, or they get less stress in the their daily-life and working circumstance. In order to find the real reasons for the lower rate of catching colds in East Meria, more researches are needed. These researches would focus on ruling out all alternative explanations and building a causal relationship between eating more fish and catching fewer colds.
In addition, the author addresses that the colds are the most common reason for absences, but he does not notice the possibility that colds may just the excuses for not going to school or workplace. Perhaps many people is too exhausted to go to school because they have stayed up until the next day morning for playing games, or have spent a whole night in the bar, and so on. But they cannot tell the teacher or the manager the real reasons for being absent, therefore they make an pretexts, catching a cold, and pretend to be ill . In this case, even if people catch less colds, the reason most frequently given for absences could still be catching a colds.
Finally , even all the flaws above are been excluded, the newsletter's recommendation, that in order to get far away from the colds people should use lchthaid , is still unsubstantial. Lchthaid, produced by deriving from fish oil, is not equal to fish. Maybe some component in fish , effective in preventing colds, does not exist in the fish oil or been eliminated in the deriving process. In this case, the lchthaid would be useless in preventing colds. So the author recommendation cannot be convincing. |
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