Argument170 [Jet小组] 第十三次作业

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题目：ARGUMENT170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
字数：456          用时：0:25:00          日期：2008/3/1

This argument assumes that Gulf Coast oyster producers will make great profits for scientists have devised a process for killing the bacteria which were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. This conclusion seems be reasonable, while after careful scrutiny, we can find that it contains several facets that are questionable.

Firstly, the author of this argument made a false 'cause-and effect' assumption that consumers in California chose to buy oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast rather than Gulf Coast oysters simply because of the fact that some harmful bacteria were found in a few Gulf Coast oyster. This is possibly a coincidence that happened in the same period of time. Since there's no evidence shows that consumers think that all Gulf Coast oysters contain such bacteria and therefore not to but them. Such as common sense, a consumer may care much about the taste of a food product, and price as higher as twice of that of Gulf Coast oysters may give them an impression that the more expensive, the better things are.

Besides, even though consumers give up purchasing Gulf Coast oysters for the bacteria thing, they may not change their minds after scientists devised the process for killing the bacteria. Consumers are usually strict about food and harmful bacteria may have already made a deep impression that Gulf Coast oysters are worse than Atlantic Coast oysters. Even they change their minds that willing to but Gulf Coast oysters, it is still unreasonable for them to accept such prices as high as Atlantic Coast oysters. At the same price, most consumers may still willing to choose those never have been examined to have harmful bacteria rather than those used to have but being processed. In this case, at the premise which is not guaranteed that consumers will buy Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters is even more incredible.

Furthermore, even consumers are likely to pay as twice the price as before, it is still doubtful that Gulf Coast oyster producers will make great profits. The author of this argument simply said that scientists have devised a process for killing the bacteria, while give no further details about how much it will cost to purchase bacteria-killing machines and how much should the producers spend on the whole process. If this process require high conditions, twice the price as before may be still not enough to make the ends meet, let along greater profits.

In conclusion, to make this argument more credible, the author should provide more information about how much the process for killing the bacteria will cost and whether consumers will pay twice as much as before for non-bacteria Gulf Coast oysters.