argument18 【Chasing For "6" Score]第二次作业

fainting_robinUID: 2336582

ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 607     TIME: 00:60:00          DATE: 2008-3-14  
Giving some facts and assumptions, the author concludes that the sales of Whirlwind (w) video games are probable to rise up dramatically in the next few months. The conclusion seems somewhat convincing at first glance; however, further scrutiny reveals that the statement suffers from several flaws.

To begin with, the reliability of the survey is open to doubt in the following aspects. The author provides no information about how the survey carried out. Does the sample choose at random? Could it represent the opinion of potential buyers? Does the questionnaire convey enough items of video game features? Does the result contain adequate respondents to attain the conclusion that lifelike graphics is the most important element of video games?
Before answering these questions, the author can not convince us that the survey has found out the lifelike graphics as the most significant factor on buying.

Even if we concede that the survey is reliable, it is still too rash to hold the assumption that games with lifelike graphics introduced by W will be welcome. First, as the author mentioned, such kind of game require the most up-to-date computers; however it's quite possible that there are few people could afford these expensive computers. Without the up-to-date computers to play on, the players are not going to buy these video games. Moreover, W's game introduction is designed towards people 10 to 25, for they are the most like players of video games. However, the W company forgets that the buyers are not always the players. Our 10 years old children would not have enough money or freedom of buying video games. It is their parents who decide whether nor not to buy video games and which to buy, and who would prefer the practice of intelligence to lifelike graphics. So at least, part of advertising may be a waste of money. Third, the author does not exclude the possibility that the market of this kind of video games is already covered by other strong competitors. Then, the decision of entering this market must be reconsidered. If the video games produced by W do not exceed a lot of others in quality, then there may be a price battle. Finally, even if W's new games could be sold out, would it bring benefits or losses to W? It's hard to say. Thus the author fails to take into account some alternatives which would undermine his assumption of the popularity of this kind of games.

Last but not least, the conclusion that the declined sales of W is about to be reversed in the next few months remains questionable. Assuming that the decrease of the sales is due to other facts, such as financial shortages, a wrong market strategy, management problems, and technique difficulties, then before figuring out and solving the problem causing the sales decline, it may be impossible to have a reversal. Even if the former problem is solved, the recovery of sales may need more than "a few month". As a common sense, people's buying habits are consistent in a period of time. It requires a long time to win back the lost customers during the last two years, and to recover the status in the sales market.

Finally, granted that the author is able to exclude a myriad possibilities leading to the failure of W's lifelike graphics video games, he still can not convince us about the conclusion above. To substantiate his conclusion, the author must point out the specific causes of the sale's decline and provide solid evidences to prove the success of such kind of video games will effectively save the W company in current condition.

problem\ technique\ figure\statues\financial shortage\difficulty\video\exceed\practice\significant
econsider\ further\scrutiny\potential\adequate\ questionnaire

xmubitUID: 2362643

Giving some facts and assumptions, the author concludes that the sales of Whirlwind (w) video games are probable to rise up dramatically in the next few months. The conclusion seems somewhat convincing at first glance; however, further scrutiny reveals that the statement suffers from several flaws.


To begin with, the reliability of the survey is open to doubt in the following aspects. The author provides no information about how the survey carried out. Does the sample choose at random? Could it represent the opinion of potential buyers? Does the questionnaire convey enough items of video game features? Does the result contain adequate respondents to attain the conclusion that lifelike graphics is the most important element of video games? Before answering these questions[连续使用反问确实很炫，但一定要在反问之后给出自己的看法，原句感觉似乎有些弱 Without supplying us with more reliable evidence], the author can not convince us that the survey has found out the lifelike graphics as the most significant factor on buying.


Even if we concede that the survey is reliable, it is still too rash to hold the assumption that games with lifelike graphics introduced by W will be welcome. First, as the author mentioned, such kind of game require the most up-to-date computers; however it's quite possible that there are few people could afford these expensive computers. Without the up-to-date computers to play on, the players are not going to buy these video games. Moreover, W's game introduction is designed towards people 10 to 25, for they are the [most like most probable potential] players of video games. However, the W company forgets that the buyers are not always the players[去掉两个the : buyers are not always players.]. [Our貌似有些不地道]10 years old children would not have enough money or freedom of buying video games. It is their parents who decide whether nor not to buy video games and which to buy, and [who would they may] prefer the [practice games] of intelligence to [the ones with] lifelike graphics. [So at least, part of advertising may be a waste of money.  没有必要在这儿留下余地So it is possible that WC’s advertising may be a waste of money not to mention helping improve its sales.] Third, the author does not exclude the possibility that the market of this kind of video games is already covered by other strong competitors. Then, the decision of entering this market must be reconsidered. If the video games produced by W do not exceed a lot of others in quality, then there may be a price battle. Finally, even if W's new games could be sold out, would it bring benefits or losses to W? [It's hard to say. 貌似有些不地道 Finally, even if WC’s new games could be sold out, we cannot be convinced that WC would earn enough profits in the end without more detailed information.] Thus the author fails to take into account some alternatives which would undermine his assumption of the popularity of this kind of games.[一般一个大点里分述两个小点即可，这一段堆积了三个小点多了些，而下一个大点却太单薄。另外第三小点论证了价格战问题，无论结果如何得利的都是players，这与alternatives which would undermine his assumption of the popularity of this kind of games 并不太契合]


Last but not least, the conclusion that the declined sales of W is about to be reversed in the next few months remains questionable. Assuming that the decrease of the sales is due to other facts, such as financial shortages, a wrong market strategy, management problems, and technique difficulties, then before figuring out and solving the problem causing the sales decline, it may be impossible to have a reversal. [Even if the former problem is solved, the recovery of sales may need more than "a few month". As a common sense, people's buying habits are consistent in a period of time. It requires a long time to win back the lost customers during the last two years, and to recover the status in the sales market.  a few month本身已经做了恰当的让步了，在这一点上穷追不舍比较牵强。可以把上一段第三小点挪到这儿]


Finally, granted that the author is able to exclude a myriad possibilities leading to the failure of W's lifelike graphics video games, he still can not convince us about the conclusion above. To [better]substantiate his conclusion, the author must point out the specific causes of the sale's decline and provide solid evidences to prove the success of such kind of video games will effectively [help WC get rid of the current predicament.]save the W company in current condition.


Well done! 写得很好，可以开始限时了，我比较挑剔些，勿怪哈：）
Add oil~~~

fainting_robinUID: 2336582

多谢多谢：）
拍砖是王道~~
限时在30分钟内还很困难，但是基本上一遍写下来，不回头改动。