argument45

liuliu8389UID: 2432168

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the
course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according
to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends
that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


In this argument, the author concludes that being unable to travel over the sea because global warming leads to ice melt, the arctic deer population reduced. To support this conclusion, the author cites reports from local hunters that the number of arctic deer is less than before, and notes that this phenomenon is accord with the recent global warming trends. However, a close scrutiny of the evidence reveals several critical flaws with the author's argument.

First of all, the author provides no assurances that the reports from local hunters on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Perhaps these local hunters just have not seen as many deer as before and then asserted that the deer population declined. However, it is not necessarily the case. It is entirely possible that the arctic deer migrate to some district which have more food resources and better live conditions and then have not shown as much as before where the hunters used to see lots of them. Another problem with the reports is that since there is no specific information about how long the arctic deer have been diminished in number, there is chance that the change is very recent, and it is possible that insufficient data have been collected to draw any reliable conclusions.

Secondly, the author observes a correlation between deer population decline and global warming, then concludes that the former is caused by the latter. However, the author offers no evidence to substantiate this assumption. Perhaps the human population in the region where the arctic deer live have increased sharply in recent years and people tend to kill more deer for food or to exchange hunted deer for things they need. Or perhaps the sea has been polluted by some factories nearby the arctic region established within the last few years and the exotic exhaust from the factories caused the deer sick to die. Without ruling out such possibilities, it is unfair to conclude that deer number decreased because of the warm weather.

Finally, the author unfairly assumes that deer cannot obtain enough food since global warming leads to ice melt. Yet this might not be the case for a variety of possible reasons. It is possible that deer can swim across the sea and get as much food as before. It is also possible that with the warm weather, there are more food resources in one island which can totally satisfy the deer's needs and they do not need to travel from one island to another. Such evidence would serve to undermine the author's claim that warm weather render the deer unable to get enough food.

In conclusion, the author fails to convince me that the deer number decreased because they cannot across the frozen sea. To strengthen the argument the author must show that the reports the argument based on is reliable. The author must also assure me that global warming is the only explanation for the deer population decline. Finally, to better assess the argument, it would be useful to know that ice melt absolutely prevent deer seeking food from one island to another and cause the deer starve to die.

[ 本帖最后由 liuliu8389 于 2008-3-20 16:32 编辑 ]

rita_moyoUID: 2274069

In this argument, the author concludes that being unable to travel over the sea because global warming leads to ice melt, the arctic deer population reduced. To support this conclusion, the author cites reports from local hunters that the number of arctic deer is less than before, and notes that this phenomenon is （去掉）accord with the recent global warming trends. However, a close scrutiny of the evidence reveals several critical flaws with the author's argument.

First of all, the author provides no assurances that the reports from local hunters on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Perhaps these local hunters just have not seen as many deer as before and then asserted that the deer population declined. However, it is not necessarily the case. It is entirely possible that the arctic deer migrate to some district which have more food resources and better live conditions and then have not shown as much as before where the hunters used to see lots of them. Another problem with the reports is that since there is no specific information about how long the arctic deer have been diminished in number, there is a chance that the change is very recent, and it is possible that insufficient data have been collected to draw any reliable conclusions.

Secondly, the author observes a correlation between deer population decline and global warming, then concludes that the former is caused by the latter. However, the author offers no evidence to substantiate this assumption. Perhaps the human population in the region where the arctic deer live have increased sharply in recent years and people tend to kill more deer for food or to exchange hunted deer for things they need. Or perhaps the sea has been polluted by some factories nearby the arctic region established within the last few years and the exotic exhaust from the factories caused the deer sick to die. Without ruling out such possibilities, it is unfair to conclude that deer number decreased because of the warm weather.

Finally, the author unfairly assumes that deer cannot obtain enough food since global warming leads to ice melt. Yet this might not be the case for a variety of possible reasons. It is possible that deer can swim across the sea and get as much food as before. It is also possible that with the warm weather, there are more food resources in one island which can totally satisfy the deer's needs and they do not need to travel from one island to another. Such evidence would serve to undermine the author's claim that warm weather render the deer unable to get enough food.

In conclusion, the author fails to convince me that the deer number decreased because they cannot across the frozen sea. To strengthen the argument the author must show that the reports the argument based on is reliable. The author must also assure me that global warming is the only explanation for the deer population decline. Finally, to better assess the argument, it would be useful to know that ice melt absolutely prevent deer seeking food from one island to another and cause the deer starve to die.

总的来说，我觉得写得不错~

liuliu8389UID: 2432168

Thanks, rita:)