格式错误，重新发【challenge yourself小组】第三次作业 argument239

superjiang001UID??2300426

ARGUMENT239（最新JJ排13位）
－The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.
"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew宵禁 four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter徘徊，闲荡 or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile少年的 delinquency犯罪 and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."

逻辑分析；
Dalton做了个决定：实施宵禁（结论）à因为宵禁能减少年轻人的犯罪行为（有错误，能减少年轻人公共场所的犯罪不等于能减少年轻人的犯罪），使人们免受伤害（有问题，能减少年轻人的犯罪不等于减少犯罪）（大前提）à为什么说大前提是正确的呢？à 因为邻村Williamsville四个月以前采取了宵禁后：1 十点以后犯罪率下降了27%    2公共场所 3 town square曾经犯罪率高不等于实施宵禁之前犯罪率也高，可能五十年前犯罪率高呢，原本四个月可能也没有犯罪事件发生

Before the conclusion that the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew as the neighboring town of Williamsville has been made, we should reconsider the facts provided by the author from several other aspects. The author who conducted the curfew study seems to have assumed that a curfew measure will surely diminish the juvenile delinquency and then protect people from being victims, which may mask other factors which are potentially difficult to detect.

First of all, there is absolutely no evidence provided that a curfew measure can lead to less juvenile delinquency. Another possibility to consider is this: after carrying out the curfew, maybe many young men commit crimes at some secret places, such as darkly corners around the street, backyard behind the abandoned factories, and so forth. In fact, it is primarily at such kind of places that most crimes happened. In addition, we can not guarantee that there will be less victims of crime even though we can control juvenile commitment. Maybe the high crime rate is not the contribution of young criminals, but paid tribute to some middle aged offenders, even the old men who could be grandparents according to their age. However, we just do not know.

Secondly, even if we accept carrying out curfew can effectively control young people’s crime and protect ourselves from being harmed, we can not assume the same measure will work in our town. In fact, some other possibilities should be taken into consideration. A quite probable possibility is that maybe young people from the town of Dalton are well-educated and most of the criminals are the older men, thus such kind of measures has a limited opportunity to reduce the crime rate. Further, perhaps most of the residents who live in Dalton earn a good sense of caution, and they rarely go out at night. In this type of situation, the measure of curfew can hardly play a significant role in diminishing crime rate of Dalton. To substantiate his argument, the author should provide more information about the town of Dalton.

Finally, the investigation is not accurate itself. On one hand, the town of Williamsville adopted the curfew only four months ago, is it long enough? Perhaps a severely murder case happens four months ago, and policemen increase the number of patrols during these mouths. Thus, the criminals become silent these months does not mean they will be quiet in the future. In addition, the Williamsville’s town square were once outraged at high crime rate, how to define once? Maybe this happens very, very long time ago, say, fifty years. Comparing to fifty years ago, the 27 percent decrease in crime rate can not explain anything. We need to compare the crime rate four months ago with the data now, and which makes sense.

In sum, before the conclusion about imposing a curfew in town of Dalton is reached, a more strictly controlled legitimate study is needed.


[ 本帖最后由 superjiang001 于 2008-7-30 17:17 编辑 ]

firhadayUID??2287086

你好,格式错误可以参考这个帖子
https://bbs.gter.net/thread-686856-1-1.html
按照里面的内容操作.斑竹自会尽快帮你解锁
谢谢配合~
Blessing!