argument7 eaglewatch NO.1 第一次作业 we are gters

eaglewatchUID: 2374680

7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

In the letter, the arguer claims that we should vote for Ann Green rather than Frank Braun with the "evidences" and "facts" that(1)the number of factories in Clearview has doubled;(2)air pollution levels have increased ;(3)the local hospital had treated 25% more patients with respiratory illnesses. At first glance , the argument appears to be somewhat convincing , but further reflection, reveals that it omits some substantial concerns that should be addressed in this argument. From the logical prespective, this argument suffers from several flaws as follows.

Firstly, the arguer attempts to prove that the doubled number of factories lead to the deteriorating environment. On the one hand ,there is no enough evidence offered that how many factories have been built there--if the base is low, it is entirely possible that the increasing number will not deteriorate environment at all, after all the environment can recover to some extent. On the other hand, even though the base is huge ,the arguer should provide more evidence referring to the types of factory. Obviously, the different types of factory have a different influence on environment--it is likely that the newly factories does not deteriorate environment at all. However ,the arguer ignores these possibilities to draw a false conclusion.

Secondly ,even if it is the new built factory that render the increasing level of air pollution ,there is no causal relationship between the assumption that the air pollution result in the growing number of patients with respiratory illnesses and the fact that the local hospital had treated 25% more. As a matter of fact ,this assumption is a poor one. A myriad of other factors including the improving technology. Even there is increasing patients suffered with respiratory illnesses , what causes this is also a problem. It is very likely that the infectious disease which can lead to respiratory illnesses happened in these years. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the arguer cannot justifiably conclude that it is the air pollution that cause the respiratory illnesses.

Finally,  even though current members are not protecting our environment and the deteriorating environment really causes a great number of problems ,voting for Ann Green is also untenable. Common sense tells that voting depends many factors including the charm of candidate and the ability of reign, not only his identification. Obviously , the arguer simply concludes that we should vote for the Ann Green ,a member of the Good Earth Coalition without a  thorough consideration about the other factors.

To sum up, this argument fails to stress his statement that  residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green rather than for Frank Braun, because the evidence cited in the argument does not lend strong enough support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more convincible ,the argur should offer more facts and details with regard to the factories. What's more, he would have to provide more information regarding the reason of increasing cases of respiratory illnesses. The last , the arguer had better give out other factors why we should vote for Ann Green. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above , it could have become more thorough and logically acceptable.

[ 本帖最后由 liyue24 于 2008-8-2 11:30 编辑 ]