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ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
In the memo, the president advocates that all of their stores should discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer points out that at their newest store, the best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheddar cheeses. Meanwhile, the arguer also cites the recent survey by Cheeses of the world magazine which indicated that more and more subscribers prefer the domestic cheeses to imported ones. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.
In the first place, the fact that at their newest store the five best-selling cheeses last year were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin can not prove that the customers prefer domestic cheeses to imported ones. On one hand, as a chain store with branches spread all over the US, the situation of newest store can not represent the stores all. It is entirely possible that in the other stores, the imported cheeses have a better selling than the domestic ones. It is equally possible that the newest stores’ five best selling domestic cheddar cheeses were all on sale last year, which will not last long. On the other hand, granted that the newest store can represent the selling of all the stores in US, we can not ensure that the domestic cheeses are preferred to imported ones. It is possible that the selling of last year is just an aberration, and in the coming years and before the imported cheeses have a better selling. The trend may be that the imported cheeses will be selling better in the next year according to the trend of past several years even though domestic cheeses have a better performance in the last year.
In the second place, for lack of validity, the result of the survey could not lend strong support to the arguer’s claim. First of all, in the absence of the data concerning the total amount of the subscribers of the magazine, the reliability of the results of the survey is open to doubt. It is entire possible that the subscribers of the magazine are extremely rich or poor, or merely represent a few people but not all. In addition, granted the groups of people are represented, perhaps the participants of the survey are not the consumers going to buy their cheese. Their preference does not directly influence the sell performance. Last but not least, the arguer fails to convince us whether the survey is justified. We could not exclude the subscribers who prefer imported cheeses forget to send the report back, or the people who indeed love the imported ones do not subscribe the magazine at all.
Finally, the advantage of domestic cheeses over imported ones in selling can not pledge an increasing profit in all stores by stopping stocking many of varieties of imported cheeses. The arguer fails to take into account other possible facts can promote the profits of the product which do not solely rely on the amount of selling, as the costs, the prices and the preference. Therefore, it is entire possible that the costs of domestic cheese are much bigger than imported ones because of more expense on advertisement, or it is equally possible that the prices of the domestic cheeses are low because of fierce competition. This may lead to domestic cheeses a much smaller profit margin than imported cheeses. If so, the profits of imported cheese will reduce to zero, if the company decides to stop stock it. Then the overall profits of stores may be reduced even the domestic cheeses experience a sharp increasing in the coming year.
To sum up, the arguer advocates a hasty conclusion, which neither to anatomize the valid of the survey, nor consider the representation of the newest stores’ experiences. A hasty decision will lead to lots of flaws which is harmful to a company’s developing. |
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