Argument53 【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】第二周第一次作业 on susanner

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The author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life . To support the conclusion, the author cites a research in which 25 infants showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. The author also cites a follow-up study which shows more than half of these children identify themselves as shy after they grow up. I find the argument logically unconvincing in several respects.

First of all(全篇123数下去是否有些生硬呢？嘉文的作文书里习惯上也是123的数，这个问题老生常谈，我以为逻辑词如此分割无助于上下文的有机逻辑联系), a threshold problem with the argument involves the validity of the research of which the sample is too limited.The number of the participants of the reserch is insignificant(insufficient好些？) and lack of validity(为什么validity,我想楼主缺少支持论据，或深入些的探讨，比如反正之类的支持这个词。我会这么写，The researchers in the argument only include 25 babies, a number may be suitable for a recreative gamble game but quite inadequate for a serious research project, the result of the survey lacks credibility and therefore could not lend strong support to the arguer's claim. ), thus the research could not lend strong support to the author's conclusion. Whether most of the infants, or large portions of infants conceived in early autumn have the same symptom is open to doubt, in which case, the reserch is unlikely to have any effect on getting the conclusion.

Secondly，without any comparison with the corresponding group of infants born in other seasons ,no mater what behaviors the researched group has, the validness of the conclusion is under doubt. (validity换个说法，不跟上文重复。which would also renders the result of the survey meaningless.)

Thirdly, according to the statement, the conclusion relies on what might be a faulse analogy between mild distress and shyness.According to common sense, such distress is very likely to be out of instincts of self-protecting instead of the consequences of melatonin.

Fourthly, the survey does not provide complete information concerning the effect of melatonin.No evidence could indicate that melatonin increased in mothers will lead to the increasement in their babies let alone will cause the infants' shyness. (个人以为这一段的论点有些错误，红色这一句，作者正是通过这个实验试图证明M素跟shyness的关系，楼主所质疑的“No evidence”，文中作者已经给出了推断过程。楼主是在直接质疑原文结论，而没给出论证。这一段可以去掉)

Fifthly，the figure in the follow-up study -- more than 1/2 --will not suffice the conclusion in the sense of statistics.

Finally，without further in-depth analysis to rule out other factors which might contribute to the result of the follow-up study, I cannot accept the conclusion it is due to M. According to common knowledge, people’s character, to a large extend, should attribute to the milieu in which he or she grew up. The author should consider all the factors that can affect a child’s character before he makes the conclusion. (the mere fact that grow up generations who identified themselves as shy are relate with the melatonin. The teenager has been ten more years old and has so much experience in the society. Almost everything would affect one's characters and personalities, parents tempers, family atmosphere, peers and classmates relationships, and so on. It is not guaranteed that affirm the melatonin causes the problem without further in-depth analysis to rule out other factors which might contribute to the result.楼主为什么不深入的写呢？)

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the argument must show(口语词，indicate)--perhaps by way of a reliable study--that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between melatonin and the reactions of infants.To better assess the argument, the author also need to conduct a research of the specific function of the melatonin , and the factors which might affect the characters of participants.

楼主想了很多观点，不过没能深入的论证。

孙远《GRE写作》P10 第二条，摘录如下
“2) 对逻辑错误展开有效的攻击。仅仅抓住逻辑错误是不够的，你必须从逻辑的角度或至少是从常识的角度进行分析，论证原论述的不合理性，即说明其论证不足以支持其结论，其假设未得到有效的支撑。反过来，你也可以指出如何加强原论证。”