【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】1.31作业

lilianliUID: 2437378

ISSUE184
"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."



Is it a grave mistake to theorize before one has data? In my point of view, admittedly, data is significant when a theory is set up especially in the realm of business and society. However, in some realms theorize before one has data is necessary as well as indispensable.

Data which is more convincing can provide more evidences when a theory is built up. Examples to prove the view are abundant with the following foremost. In the realm of commerce, producers who want to share the market should know the psychology of consumers. What can show people’s will is the survey on the basis of a series of data. The statistical data which can clearly indicate the needs of consumers, the money they can pay for the product and so forth contributes to the form of a marketing theory. The theory to adjust the strategy of a company would be useful due to the comprehensive data. Similarly when building up a common theory accepted by populace in order to solve some social problems, data plays an indispensable role. Consider the environmental issue, data makes vast majority of people recognize the importance of environmental protection. The quantity of lost forests vigorously shows the seriousness of deforestation to populace. The area of melting glacier draws people’s attention to the greenhouse effect. Through these data, the consequences can be predicted and theory replying to these problems can be easily admitted by people.

However, waiting for data instead of building up a theory sometimes deters resolving the emergency. Dealing with the epidemic likes SARS is a case in point. When the case came out, instead of waiting for the agencies to collect data about the quantity of cases, the government rapidly set up a theory to investigate the cause and fact, console the populace as well as treat the patients. Because of the timely theory before data which guided people to face the disaster, the casualty was minimized.

Also, in the realm of science, some right theories are brought without data and at the same time can’t be proved by data. For instance, the principle of relativity, a classical theory in physics, is hardly to theorize with data. However, this principle revolutionized modern thought on the nature of space and time and became the prerequisite of many theories and researches in other fields and finally this principle is proved by the observation in astronomy.

All in all, theory which serves to human beings is set up through duly and deeply thinking by people. And whether the data is needed before theorizing should be considered case by case.