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发表于 2009-2-18 22:01:12
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The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
1,老年人不是都喜欢听新闻,何况也不一定听收音机(高速、大容量的新闻节目不一定适合老年人),因此这与听众下降无直接联系,也不能成为改版后所希望的拉拢观众的筹码。
2,CD销量下降并不代表居民对音乐兴趣减少,反之,他们可能更多的听电台音乐,因为这些是免费的。同时,报告没有指出摇滚音乐的销量是否减少了。
3,调查的时间特殊性不能客观反映群众的真实喜好。同样,邻镇的新闻频道受欢迎可能也是因为大选的举行。
By providing couples of facts, such as the decreasing number of audience, poor sales of music records and the success of some news reporting program in the neighbor town, the general manager concluded that the shift of KNOW radio station's programing style, which was formerly rock-and-roll, is necessary and the format should be changed into a non-stop news report. However, having been examined carefully, the evidences and assumptions listed above hardly have any causal relationship with the conclusion drawn by the author, besides, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies due to those misleading factors.
To begin with, the author's conclusion of shifting its broadcasting form is based on the growth of senior citizen. The suggestion, however, has nothing to do with the hope of regain their listener, for the olds may also bored of news report, which can be highly speedy and thus, is rather difficult for olds to follow. In addition, as the sense of listening weakened frequently among the aged, they may even lost their interests in radio, gardening and outdoor exercises, on the other hand, are more acceptable in terms of their health. Simply put, these dramatically increasing old people are not the main target of KNOW radio, while pay more attention on other groups may unexpectedly result in soaring number of audience.
Furthermore, the report which indicates the bad selling of CD's in this argument intends to lead us to believe the changing of the dweller's hobby: less people are devoted in music, which is also a urgent factor in shifting the KNOW's broadcasting style. Yet, this unease can be easily ruled out by simply altering the way of viewing the issue: Is the declining selling in recorded disk solely attributed to the loss of interest in music? It is entirely possible that the recession of economy made people's wallet tight, besides, this phenomenon may arouse a radio enthusiasm:it's free. On the other hand, there is no statistical data indicates the decreasing sales of rock-and-roll recording which is the daily theme of KNOW radio.
Finally, the survey of local citizen's views of hoping for better informed about politics seems powerful in supporting the manager's point, however, this may only occurs during the election days, as all the citizens have the right to vote and thus, are more concerning about the process of the election. The success of the news only radio station in neighbor city, on the other hand, may also be a short-term effect according to the political campaign.
In sum, all these seemingly solid evidence are lacking of further proof. The argument would be more convincing if provided with better organized logic statement, more detailed statistical data such as the ratio of the senior citizens in the total number of residents of the city, sales of rock-and-roll music among disk selling of all kinds. All these factors are vital in making the argument more persuasive. |
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