第2周argument习作（17，38，51）

LRENYUANXUID: 2529753

17The following appeared in a letter to theeditor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal(which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove forthe past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly feefrom $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the towncouncil is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice aweek, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ—which, like ABC, currently hasa fleet of 20 trucks—has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ providesexceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town surveyagreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."


From the newspaper, the argument conclude that Grove's town shouldcontinue EZ's contract
For reason that EZ provide more collectiontimes a week, own more trucks than ABC, and EZ's service reveal high percentageof support from the survey. But I can't agree with the conclusion from several followingaspects

Firstly,we must clarify the basic function of a garbage collection company is do theirbest to make our environment tidy and clear, but author unfairly relate thisfunction with how many times one company collect garbage. No evidence has revealedthat more collection times can make our condition better. Maybe more frequent collectiontimes only because EZ's employee is not as effective as ABC’s. In common sense,with the garbage collection times raised, our life disturbed more seriously, sotwice a week don't equal with we should hire EZ, but not ABC,even on the contrary, ABC is a fitter choice.

Secondly, the facts that EZ will add more truck to its fleet which meanEZ own more truck than ABC’s in brief, and the Newspaper recognize that is onemain reason why we should continue EZ's contract. Indeed, more trucks than ABCdon't represent ABC can serve better than ABC. Maybe ABC's trucks are biggerand their working efficiency is higher than EZ's original truck. Maybe EZimport new truck because they find their fleet can't satisfy their customers'need completely, and their original truck maybe eliminated after importing newtrucks, so we can justify whether we should hire EZ from its order additionaltrucks.

Thirdly, the survey result unconvinced me frommany respects. Although 80 percentage of the survey response satisfy with EZ,it's possible that only the person who consider EZ's service meet their needthen response the survey, meanwhile these person who unsatisfied with EZ Company'sservice may be response little. Admittedly, we don't acknowledge how the surveywas conducted, insufficient statistical data provided by the author and no onecan conclude reasonable and ration result that
EZ's service is good from it.

Insummary, argument can't convince me as it stands from above aspects. In orderto prove we should pay more money to employed EZ, author should ruling outother alternative such as EZ' frequency collection and higher payment couldbring better effect than ABC pr prove EZ' larger fleet will accomplish taskmore efficient than ABC.





38The following memo appeared in the newsletter of theWest Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises tosignificantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reportsthat in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visitthe doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly,eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are thereason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommendthe daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as agood way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."




In this memo, the author recommend people should daily use ofIchthaid, which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish. To support thispoint, the memo conduct that the East people who consume more fish coulddecrease the opportunity of catching cold, and which lead to less absenteeismof their school and workplace. At first glance, little evidence can convince mefor following reason.

Inthe first place, the study is based on the people who living in the east andit's unfair to conclude the result that it's also a fitter study for Western. Maybepeople in west have really different lifestyle in food component and so is theclimate in western. So the study can' represent condition of western, even onthe contrary, people who consume more fish are more likely to get cold.

Inthe second place, the memo indicates that the people who consume more fish willless frequency opportunity to meet doctor so daily use of Ichthaid could alsoprevent cold. In seems reasonable at first glance, however, indeed, Ichthaidmade of fish don't equate it will as effective as fish. The argument assumesthat the correlation between Ichthaid's component and Ichthaid's function of preventionof cold. As far as I see, this assumption is unwarranted. It May be the casethat fish can prevent cold because it contains some fresh that Inchthaid can'tachieved.

Furthermore, it is nonsense to relate absenteeism with cold. Even if eatfish can prevent cold, however, less chance to caught cold don't mean lessabsenteeism. In common sense, when it comes to absenteeism, we can recommendlots reasonable pretext including pretend to getting sick or got hurt inaccident or serious bad weather and so on. Absenteeism always related with lotsof other aspects as I mentioned.

Insum, in order to bolster author's statement, necessary evidence should beprovided such as people in west is similar to Eastern people in lifestyle and theirliving environment; ruling out another possible reason can lead to decreasecold and absenteeism. And the proof in statistical data is also needed in orderto attest efficiency of Ichthaid.




51The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep somepatients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis hasnow been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients.The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr.Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibioticsregularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average,40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, allbeing treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills,although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their averagerecuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients whoare diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as partof their treatment."



From the newsletter statement, we acknowledge that the author concludesecondary infections may keep patients from healing quickly after severe musclestain through a experiment made of two different groups of patients and twodifferent doctors. In my view, little evidence can bolster the above conclusionwell for many aspects.

Firstof all, Although two groups of patients were treated for muscle injuries, incommon sense we know that healing related with degree of injuries seriously. However,we know little about the condition of two groups of patients. Statistical evidenceweight a lot on this kind of argument. May be Dr,Newland's patients healingquicker than Dr. Alto's have something to do with Dr Newland's patientsinjuries not as seriously as Dr. Alto's
patients

Secondly ,as we know patients themselves play a key role of healingprocess, even if patients condition in two different group are similar to someextend, nevertheless, we don't know whether patients in different groups bothare cooperate with doctor's treatment and obey doctor's advice. It's possiblethat patients in Dr.Newland are more care about their injuries so theirtreatment can be processed well; by the contrast, Dr.Alto's patients are not asprocess doctor's advice well.

Moreover, doctors' special skills also contribute much to the healingtime of patients takes. Dr.Newland maybe more experience on how to heal apatients who get muscle hurt, meanwhile, Dr.Alto possible know little on this. Otherwise,because Dr.Newland and Dr.Alto come from different medicine domain, so itreally possible that they master discipline skill differently. From this point,it's unfair to assume take antibiotics can promote efficiency of healing.

Insummary, we must ruling out alternative possible such as I mentioned so that wecan prove that take antibiotics will make contribution to healing musclestrain. Meanwhile, we also need statistical evidence in medicine science andmore science experiment to justify the fact that muscle strain can be treatedwell through antibiotics.



附第2周作业argument提纲

097
  1.we must rule out other possible case which also can effect increasing number of TV audience
  2.Local people maybe disinteresting in sports coverage,we need statistcal evidence to bolster this assumption.
  3.Company's profit lies on many aspects,for instance ,the cost of rent and electric charge,taxes,staff's salary etc..

067
  1. few complaints on the merge of garbage site don't mean same case will occur in merging two libray.
  2. 20 pecent fewer users than previous can't equate few people go to the library,it is possible that the basic number
of people who went to library is very large; otherwise even if number of residents went to library disclines sharply during last year
that case can't represent this year.
3.no statistical substantial evidence  that closing the library can save money and improve service.  
036
1.it's unfair to equate twenty years research result with contempary reserch result,people's customer is not stable.
2.Many aspects lead to studying invalid,it's not mere decided by their interview-centered method.
3.no statistical evidence proved graduate studen's  working is more accurate than original studying method
4.Even we can establish a more accurate understanding  of child-rearing traditions in island of Tertia,no evidence
reveals that the method can also appliled in other island cultures in proportion