Argument235 永不言弃第十九次作业 by stgzhao 7#

stgzhaoUID: 2583165

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
WORDS: 493          TIME: 00:23:56          DATE: 2009-2-25 20:44:13

This argument is well-represented, however not well-reasoned. The mere facts that older people in listening area has increased while the total number has declined and recorded music sales have decreased are insufficient to conclude that KNOW radio station should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Let alone the weak reasons that continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been successful and people are interested in politics during the recent election.
To begin with, the argument provides no evidence to connect the fact that older people in their listening area has increased dramatically while the total number of listeners has declined with the conclusion. The assumption that older people dislike rock-and-roll is unwarranted, let alone the assumption that they will be surely fond of continuous news. Perhaps older people is just the main market of KNOW radio station's rock-and-roll programming. In addition, the argument also fails to explain why the total number of their listeners has recently declined. Perhaps people are getting tired of the KNOW, and it is also possible that recently there is a fad of listening to I-pod instead of radio broadcast.
Nevertheless, the fact that music stores in their area report decreased sales of recorded music does not lead to the conclusion that less people are going to listen to rock-and-roll programming. Lacking such evidence it is entirely possible that an increasing number of audiences of the rock-and-roll programming is the very reason for the declination in recorded music sales.
Moreover, the argument unfairly assumes that due to the success of continuous news stations in neighboring cities KNOW radio station will have a larger number of audiences if they shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Maybe citizens of the cities nearby are mostly consist of businessmen and politicians, who are more likely to focus on continuous news other than rock-and-roll music while citizens of the city where KNOW locates are fond of rock-and-roll. If so, the conclusion that KNOW should shift its programming to continuous news format seems unpersuasive.
Last but not least, citizens growing interest in politics occurs during the recent election, which weakens the representativeness of the fact. Every thoughtful man can realize that people are interested in becoming better informed about politics during the election because of their wishes to have a better knowledge of the candidates so that they could vote more correctly. After all, something relevant to themselves will surely draw more attention of the citizens.
In sum, I find this argument logically flaws in several aspects talked above. The conclusion that KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to continuous news format is unwarranted. To better evaluate the argument I need to know the exact reason why there has been a declination in the number of audience of KNOW radio station and if the audience who are fond of music is decreasing. Lack of such explanations I will remain unconvinced by the argument.

MYcoltingUID: 2563080

This argument is well-represented, however not well-reasoned. The mere facts that older people in listening area has increased while the total number has declined and recorded music sales have decreased are insufficient to conclude that KNOW radio station should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Let alone the weak reasons that continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been successful and people are interested in politics during the recent election.

To begin with, the argument provides no evidence to connect the fact that older people in their listening area has increased dramatically while the total number of listeners has declined with the conclusion. The assumption that older people dislike rock-and-roll is unwarranted怎么跟我的理解正相反啊 ＋＋！！, let alone the assumption that they will be surely fond of continuous news. Perhaps older people is just the main market of KNOW radio station's rock-and-roll programming. In addition, the argument also fails to explain why the total number of their listeners has recently declined. Perhaps people are getting tired of the KNOW, and it is also possible that recently there is a fad of listening to I-pod instead of radio broadcast.  argument第一段应该充分展开的，据说第一段很影响分数

Nevertheless, the fact that music stores in their area report decreased sales of recorded music does not lead to the conclusion that less people are going to listen to rock-and-roll programming. Lacking such evidence it is entirely possible that an increasing number of audiences of the rock-and-roll programming is the very reason for the declination in recorded music sales. 我感觉这里犯的是定义不清 唱片销量下降并不意味着r&r销量下降

Moreover, the argument unfairly assumes that due to the success of continuous news stations in neighboring cities KNOW radio station will have a larger number of audiences if they shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Maybe citizens of the cities nearby are mostly consisted of businessmen and politicians, who are more likely to focus on continuous news other than rock-and-roll music while citizens of the city where KNOW locates are fond of rock-and-roll. If so, the conclusion that KNOW should shift its programming to continuous news format seems unpersuasive.

Last but not least, citizens growing interest in politics occurs during the recent election, which weakens the representativeness of the fact. Every thoughtful man can realize that people are interested in becoming better informed about politics during the election because of their wishes to have a better knowledge of the candidates so that they could vote more correctly. After all, something relevant to themselves will surely draw more attention of the citizens.

In sum, I find this argument logically flaws in several aspects talked above. The conclusion that KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to continuous news format is unwarranted. To better evaluate the argument I need to know the exact reason why there has been a declination in the number of audience of KNOW radio station and if the audience who are fond of music is decreasing. Lack of such explanations I will remain unconvinced by the argument.

在xdf时 老师说argument关键在分析错误 模板都差不多 出彩的地方就应该在分析 另外就是要注意让步

MYcoltingUID: 2563080

https://bbs.gter.net/thread-921368-1-1.html   让步的帖子

kittiejiangUID: 2508507

对第一个错误的理解：

The mere facts that older people in listening area has increased while the total number has declined provide little evidence to the manager’s recommendation. First, the manager seems to assume that older people are more interested continuous new programming, and if KNOW implement the shifting plan, its listeners would increase. Yet, the manager fails to provide evidence to substantiate this assumption. It is possible that older people are enthusiastic about RAR music because they liked listening to it when they were young.
Second, the manager unfairly assumes that it is the current RAR music programming format which was responsible for the decline in the total number of listeners. Perhaps, this decline is just seasonal and would not last long. Perhaps this decline is due to the fact that the signal transmitters have something wrong recently, which make music sound terrible. Moreover, even if the manager can substantiate the two foregoing assumption, the recommendation still has problem. The manager fails to provide the accurate numbers of the increased older people in listening area and the declined listeners, perhaps the both number are all very small, and if so, it indicates that most listeners are content with the current programming format, which render the recommendation fully unfounded.



简洁写：
To begin with, by relying on the fact that older people in listening area has increased, whereas total listeners has declined, the manager seems to indicate that the older people are more inclined to continuous news format, and if KNOW commits the shifting plan, the number of its total listeners would increase. Yet, the manager fails to provide evidence to justify older people are interested in news program. Moreover, the manager also indicates that some listeners are becoming less interested in current programming of RAR music. Nevertheless, the manager does not provide evidence to substantiate this point. Maybe listeners are still interested in current programming of RAR music. Further, even if the manager is right, if the total number of the increased older people and the decreased listeners is much less than those who are still listening the current RAR music, the recommendation also does not work.