刨根问底看范文之argument篇--第一集交通事故的困扰

berninaUID：2503038

这个漏洞好像看不出来，注意原文并没有直接将Forestville与Elmsford相比，而是比较两地六个月前与六个月后交通事故的数量，所以你说的限速是否一样跟论证没什么关系。

感谢这位同学的提醒，我明白你的意思了 ，我再好好考虑下~~

comorainUID：192455

照我看，范文body1其实并不是很有说服力，题目主要比较的是Forestville和Elmsford六个月前与六个月后交通事故数量的变化，而这部分直接比较Forestville和Elmsford，显然是不合适的。

更有甚者，第一段说：

By making a comparison of the region of Forestville, the town with the higher speed limit and therefore automobile accidents, with the region of Elmsford, an area of a lower speed limit and subsequently fewer accidents, the argument for reducing Forestville's speed limits in order to decrease accidents seems logical.

这样，完全将Forestville与Elmsford的交通事故数量直接拿来对比。但我们题目中找来找去，掘地三尺也找不出“Elmsford的交通事故比Forestville少”的意思。事实上，完全有可能“Elmsford的交通事故比Forestville还多”。

人家只说了两件事实：1、Forestville提高限速标准6个月后，交通事故数量上升15%；2、同一期间，Elmsford限速标准维持不变，交通事故数量略有下降。通过这两个事实，他想表达一个因果关系：限速标准大小可以影响交通事故数量。只有Body2对这一关系的反驳才是真正有水平的。

comorainUID：192455

不过，你的分析思路也很好。对同一个argument，有不同的思路是很正常的。

sdwgdUID：2501451

re
分析的精辟啊！！~~
顶~！

comorainUID：192455

按我的理解，范文的思路是这样的：

在6个月的时期内，F地提高了限速标准，而交通事故数量上升了15％；E地维持限速标准不变，而交通事故数量略有下降。因此，要降低交通事故数量，F地应该学习E地，将限速标准改回从前。

要反驳上述论证，很显然，我们可以说：

1、F地和E地本质不同，因为没有可比性，盲目学习适得其反。Body1写的就是交通事故上升的其他可能原因（alternative），比如人、地形等。但他的失败之处在于，题目是讲6个月后交通事故比6个月前多，而不是讲F地的交通事故比E地多，所以你老讲F地新手比E地多没用，这个没法证明这6个月为何交通事故上升了。但可以说F地可能最近搞了一个驾驶员培训计划，因而马路上的新手比6个月前更多。

2、6个月期间可能很多情况都发生了变化，因而很难证明交通事故数量上升与限速标准提高有直接关系。Body2讲了3点很好：1、天气变化——最近6个月可能天气更糟糕，E地居民不愿意驾车或可以不上班，而F地由于工作要求却不得不驾车去上班；2、人口变化——最近6个月F地人口更多了；3、驾车时间变化——最近6个月F地居民更愿意在事故多发时段出来驾驶。

总之，我的意思是，一定要与6个月前相比，而不要直接将F地与E地相比。

thnstcUID：2465815

支持

Alex_2009UID：2616286

来晚了，bernina，不好意思啊，不过还是做了。:p

之前没完善好没来的及发上来。不过还是觉得这个完善还是需要一段时间的，我还是先把它贴上来，跟大家分享一下。

官方argument范文分析及学习

Six months ago the region of Forestville increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways by ten miles per hour. Since that change took effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15 percent. But the speed limit in Elmsford, a region neighboring Forestville, remained unchanged, and automobile accidents declined slightly during the same six-month period. Therefore, if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase.

一、题目分析：写的有点像记叙文，首先来分析一下

A干嘛了，A的结果
事件的
时间：Six months ago、Since that change took effect,
地点：the region of Forestville、on the region's highways
人物：government、drovers、citizens
事件的
起因：increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling by ten miles per hour.
经过：Since that change took effect, 发生该发生的
结果：the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15 percent.

B干嘛了，B的结果
事件的
时间：during the same six-month period
地点：the region of Elmsford（a region neighboring Forestville）
人物：government、drovers、citizens
事件的
起因：the speed limit remained unchanged
经过：during the same six-month period，发生该发生的
结果：automobile accidents declined slightly

题目的结论：要想得到和B一样的结果，A就要采取和B一样的措施。
       if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways,
       they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase.
目的：reduce accidents
措施：citizens should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase.（提示想到A和B的限速本身是不一样的，six months ago）

共同点：时间段一样、人物群一样
不同点：A和B不同地区，不同措施（起因），不同经过，不同结果。
1、不同地区（临近，说明不了任何问题）可以有很多不同影响因素
       地理方面：如气候、地形
       文化习惯：如两地的酒文化啊，开车的主要群体是年经人还是老年人啊
       工作环境：上下班时间安排啦，工作节奏啦
2、不同措施（提速和未提速）要比较的话：它们的速度一开始必须是一样的，才有可比性。
3、不同经过：可能有很多其它因素参与
4、不同结果：increased by 15 percent和declined slightly，没有提供A和B交通事故的数字六个月前的原始数据。所以没有可比性。

二、官方范文剖析：

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. By making a comparison of the region of Forestville, the town with the higher speed limit and therefore automobile accidents, with the region of Elmsford, an area of a lower speed limit and subsequently fewer accidents, the argument for reducing Forestville's speed limits in order to decrease accidents seems logical.

分析：

第一句：客套话，很好用，可以借鉴。

第二句：如果题目是比较“A和B”第二句可以用：换种方式复述论据

            By making a comparison of the … of A, A介绍，with the … of B, B介绍，

第三句：指出题目结论

the argument for …ing …… in order to …… seems logical（这个词用的很好与下面however构成转折）.

这里范文用巧妙地的一个“comparation”就避免了对题目错误长篇的复述（北美范文经常干的事）。

However, (1) the citizens of Forestville are failing to consider other possible alternatives to the increasing car accidents after the raise in speed limit. (2) Such alternatives may include the fact that there are less reliable cars traveling the roads in Forestville, or that the age bracket of those in Elmsford may be more conducive to driving safely. (3)It is possible that there are more younger, inexperienced, or more elderly, unsafe drivers in Forestville than there are in Elmsford. (4)In addition, the citizens have failed to consider the geographical and physical terrain of the two different areas. (5)Perhaps Forestville's highway is in an area of more dangerous curves, sharp turns, or has many intersections or merging points where accidents are more likely to occur.(6) It appears reasonable, therefore, for the citizens to focus on these trouble spots than to reduce the speed in the entire area. (7)Elmsford may be an area of easier driving conditions where accidents are less likely to occur regardless of the speed limit.
(1)本段TS
下面请注意，作者从常识角度，而非统计角度，举出他因
(2)(3)举出三个他因
(4)(5)以“In addition”从另一个角度开始继续举他因
(6) (7)站在作者结论的角度针对性的给出本段强有力的结尾，在这里作者另辟蹊径，提出了一个非常常识性的“focus”误区。
很赞！~~

(1)A six-month period is not a particularly long time frame for the citizens to determine that speed limit has influenced the number of automobile accidents in the area(当调查期限不足以得出结论时用这个句式). (2)It is mentioned in the argument that Elmsford accidents decreased during the time period. (3)This may have been a time, such as during harsh weather conditions, when less people were driving on the road and therefore the number of accidents decreased. (4)However, Forestville citizens, perhaps coerced by employment or other requirements, were unable to avoid driving on the roads. (5)Again, the demographics of the population are important. (6)It is possible that Elmsford citizens do not have to travel far from work or work from their home, or do not work at all. (7)Are there more people in Forestville than there were six months ago? If so, there may be an increased number of accidents due to more automobiles on the road, and not due to the increased speed limits. (8)Also in reference to the activities of the population, it is possible that Forestville inhabitants were traveling during less safe times of the day, such as early in the morning, or during twilight. (9)Work or family habits may have encouraged citizens to drive during this time when Elmsford residents may not have been forced to do so.
(1)本段TS
(2)举出了攻击对象：B的结果
(3)(4) 举出天气原因，给出两个相关的他因，一个“However”把这个天气他因论证的很彻底.
(5)为举出demographics of the population 的他因，(6)(7)(8)从这个他因的三个方面给予论证，(9)给了一个强有力的收尾，彻底~~~
这一段主要是针对A six-month period 提出“This may have been a time”的各种情况分类展开了讨论。

Overall, (1)the reasoning behind decreasing Forestville's speed limit back to its original seems logical as presented above since the citizens are acting in their own best interests and want to protect their safety. (2)However, before any final decisions are made about the reduction in speed limit, the citizens and officials of Forestville should evaluate all possible alternatives and causes for the increased number of accidents over the six-month period as compared to Elmsford.
结尾段两句：回应开头，很简洁。作者给出了一个很能让人赞同的常识性观点citizens are acting in their own best interests and want to protect their safety，赞~~~

三、分析过程的感想：

1、首先，对题目的分析很重要，像“庖丁解牛”一样，要有个方法。
    我拿到这个题目的时候，我觉得有点象记叙文，就用记叙文的事件的六要素展开分析的，然后对比各要素，找出共同点和不同点。先不看作者的结论，光凭A和B的六要素对比，我们能得出什么，我们会突然觉得很难得出什么结论，甚至可以猜到作者的结论，如果要得出很多结论就还需要补充N多前提。。。。（上面很详细了），organize一下就是你的文章。
   (这里我觉得Britana的建议不错，站在老师的角度去看这个东西，把题目当做你哪个马虎学生的作业，给他上堂逻辑课。)

2、其次，分析范文时，会发现很多好用的连词（在文中已加粗），呈现出作者很好的逻辑。最赞的是作者的论述手段，主要体现在bodyparograph的两段中，尤其是结尾处，收的很有力道，如最赞的地方：It appears reasonable, therefore, for the citizens to focus on these trouble spots than to reduce the speed in the entire area. 这个简直是必杀！！！这招要是学会了，哼！无敌了！花功夫学啊~~~

3、另外提一下小看法，这篇文章写得太好了，或者说举例太全面了，我想我写的时候只要取其一部分就知足，再套一些自己模板废话，嘿嘿ie，一篇好文。。。（小猥一下:lol ）

Alex_2009UID：2616286

看了bernina的分析，一个字“深”，感叹自己分析的太浅了，向bernina学习~~~

PassonChenUID：2614331

先占后看

archaeologyUID：2598252

红色：范文可以攻击的点
紫色：作者的逻辑词
绿色：好的表达，学习
蓝色：作者攻击的evidence

Six months ago the region of Forestville increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways by ten miles per hour.Since that change took effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15 percent.But the speed limit in Elmsford, a region neighboring Forestville, remained unchanged, and automobile accidents declined slightly during the same six-month period.Therefore, if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the incresing.


The agrument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. By making a comparison of the region of Forestville, the town with the higher speed limit andtherefore automobile accidents, with the region of Elmsford, an area of a lower speed limit and subsequently fewer accidents, the argument for reducing Forestville's speed limits in order to decrease accidents seems logical.
1
However, the citizens of Forestville are failing to consider other possible alternatives to the increasing car accidents after the raise in speed limit. Such alternatives may include the fact that there are less reliable cars traveling the roads in Forestville, or that the age bracket of those in Elmsford may be more conducive to driving safely.It is possible that there are more younger, inexperienced, or more elderly, unsafe drivers in Forestville than there are in Elmsford.In addition, the citizens have failed to consider the geographical and physical terrain of the two different areas.// Perhaps Forestville's highway is in an area of more dangerous curves, sharp turns, or has many intersections or merging points where accidents are more likely to occur. It appears reasonable, therefore, for the citizens to focus on these trouble spots than to reduce the speed in the entire area. Elmsford may be an area of easier driving conditions where accidents are less likely to occur regardless of the speed limit.
1
1
A six-month period is not a particularly long time frame for the citizens to determine that speed limit has influenced the number of automobile accidents in the area. This may have been a time, such as during harsh weather conditions, when less people were driving on the road and therefore the number of accidents decreased. However, Forestville citizens, perhaps coerced by employment or other requirements, were unable to avoid driving on the roads. It is possible that Elmsford citizens do not have to travel far from work or work from their home, or do not work at all. Are there more people in Forestville than there were six months ago?If so, there may be an increased number of accidents due to more automobiles on the road, and not due to the increased speed limits. Also in reference to the activities of the population, it is possible that Forestville inhabitants were traveling during less safe times of the day, such as early in the morning, or during twilight.Work or family habits may have encouraged citizens to drive during this time when Elmsford residents may not have been forced to do so.


Overall, the reasoning behind decreasing Forestville's speed limit back to its original seems logical as presented above since the citizens are acting in their own best interests and want to protect their safety. However, before any final decisions are made about the reduction in speed limit, the citizens and officials of Forestville should evaluate all possible alternatives and causes for the increased number of accidents over the six-month period as compared to Elmsford.
1

tcwzgmUID：2628118

开始学习 真是锻炼逻辑思维阿

家家☆yoonjaeUID：2646910

小B么~ 了解你的意思鸟~
这刨根问底儿的跟66那个heaven in flowers有异曲同工之妙丫~ 赞一个，看系列去，MUA

firefly1984UID：2507404

认真读了，感谢

stefanieluoUID：2779631

真是太好的东西了，比自己看的细多了！

秋雁北飞UID：2845442

太神奇了 这简直是刘心武读红楼梦之手法