刨根问底看范文之argument篇--第一集交通事故的困扰

berninaUID: 2503038

Bernina 原创，转载请注明出处

Six months ago the region of Forestville increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways by ten miles per hour.4 l. u2 M, B; X* DSince that change took effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15 percent.9 {# F4 g; H7 J5 But the speed limit in Elmsford, a region neighboring Forestville, remained unchanged, and automobile accidents declined slightly during the same six-month period.2 `- U. j/ p; nTherefore, if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase.
大家想想我问什么要把这些词标出来，为什么用不同的颜色？答案随后揭晓~~


The agrument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. By making a comparison of the region of Forestville, the town with the higher speed limit and therefore automobile accidents, with the region of Elmsford, an area of a lower speed limit and subsequently fewer accidents, the argument for reducing Forestville's speed limits in order to decrease accidents seems logical.
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首段：看看范文的首段都交代了什么我们也就能知道我们应该怎么写了~~
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短文的大框架是什么，也就是它的目的是什么，且为了达到这个目的，它通过了什么手段，从红色的文字我们可以看出来。By... ；in order to...
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通过比较的方法，那谁和谁作比较，把比较的双方简单描述 注意：重要的是要写出短文推理的逻辑关系，即紫色字体： therefore; subsequently

这样就把这篇文章的目的，逻辑推理都总结出来了，所以我们在写首段的时候也要力争写出这些内容。

However, the citizens of Forestville are failing to consider other possible alternatives to the increasing car accidents after the raise in speed limit. Such alternatives may include the fact that there are
1less reliable cars traveling the roads in Forestville, or that the age bracket of those in Elmsford may be more conducive to driving safely.It is possible that there are more younger, inexperienced, or more elderly, unsafe drivers in Forestville than there are in Elmsford.In addition, the citizens have failed to consider the geographical and physical terrain of the two different areas.// Perhaps Forestville's highway is2in an area
of more dangerous curves, sharp turns, or has many intersections or merging points where accidents are more likely to occur. It appears reasonable, therefore, for the citizens to focus on these trouble spots than to reduce the speed in the entire area. Elmsford may be an area of easier driving conditions where accidents are less likely to occur regardless of the speed limit.

我标出一二的是作者提出的两种可能性一个关于人，一个关于地形，这两层关系中间的分割我用//给大家标出来了。大家在这里可以想想为什么作者要提这两个方面而不说别的？为什么在body 1 说这两点呢？答案随后揭晓~~~~
红色的是作者的比较词，大家有没有想过问什么作者要紧紧抓住比较不放呢难道仅仅是为了切题么？每位同学都来思考一下~~
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A six-month period is not a particularly long time frame for the citizens to determine that speed limit has influenced the number of automobile accidents in the area. This may have been a time, such as during1 harsh weather conditions, when less people were driving on the road and therefore the number of accidents decreased. However, Forestville citizens, perhaps coerced by employment or other requirements, were unable to avoid driving on the roads. It is possible that Elmsford citizens do not have to 2travel far from work or work from their home, or do not work at all. Are there3more people in Forestville than there were sic months ago?If so, there may be an increased number of accidents due to more automobiles on the road, and not due to the increased speed limits. Also in reference to the activities of the population, it is possible that Forestville inhabitants were 4traveling during less safe times of the day, such as early in the morning, or during twilight.Work or family habits may have encouraged citizens to drive during this time when Elmsford residents may not have been forced to do so.
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我标出来的1234 是作者给出的四个出行的不安全因素，大家仔细看看就能发现，1是说天气，而234都在说在路上的时间长，车多，而且还在危险时段。大家想想作者为什么这么说，为什么要在body2说这些而不在body1 呢？
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Overall, the reasoning behind decreasing Forestville's speed limit back to its original seems logical as presented above since the citizens are acting in their own best interests and want to protect their safety. However, before any final decisions are made about the reduction in speed limit, the citizens and officials of Forestville should evaluate all possible alternatives and causes for the increased number of accidents over the six-month period as compared to Elmsford.
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文章末段，作者先说了大家为了自己的安全要求限速这是合理的，但是在做这个决定前是不是应该尽量考虑周全呢？大家注意作者这里也用了一个should，是建议，而短文目的也是建议，仔细想想，作者的整篇文章并不是在批驳短文，并不是某些人说的简单的找错误，而是找出漏洞，哪里没有想到，我就帮你指出来，大家抱着这样的想法去写argument 也就不会写成抬杠的文章了。
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揭晓答案时刻：
红色的since和 therefore不就是短文的推理过程么？这不就是所谓的逻辑么？
本文是比较型，大体意思就是，别人做某些事情获得了某种效果，而我们也想要这样的效果，所以我们也这样做。大家可以看出第一段用蓝色标出来的词是什么么？就是作者认为的两者可以相互比较的关系词，其实作者的逻辑就暗藏在这里了，它假定了如果两地是neighbor的关系，而且同样的事情发生在same time 那么一个地区采取的措施也在另一地可行。（这句话说的很绕，大家自己好好想一想）
但是，很明显这是由逻辑漏洞的，我给大家画画图吧，这样清楚点~~
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这就是文章所谓的逻辑，我们来看看作者是怎么补漏洞的。

Body1我标出的蓝色的两点就是作者针对neighboring 这个词展开的漏洞补充，大家想想，一个neighbor能说明什么可比性？也许只有天气相同吧，可是造成车祸的原因不仅仅是天气不好，还有地形和驾驶人员的因素呢，好了第一点是不是说人，第二点是不是说地形？在举几个具体的例子，支撑自己的论点，body1 就大功告成啦~~~~
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Body2 轮到same time 受审了，大家在想，一个时间段两个地点什么能想同？还是只有天气，但是可能是坏天气，或者好天气，我们就先写坏天气的可能性，瞧瞧瞧瞧，是不是body2的第一点？ 再想想，如果是好天气，该怎么写？那不就是人驾驶时间长，路远，而且开车的人还多，这样不就增大了发生事故的可能性么，如果每人开车谁去发生事故啊？好了，这不就是2，3点说的么？再想想，什么时候开车危险，不是天没亮的时候么，来，再说一条。作者只想到这些，我们可以brainstorming一下，想到的都可以写，当然在合理的情况下啦你不能说f 下大雪路太滑，而e 大晴天，道路情况良好，这就很搞笑了；还有最好不要说f 太发达了，车多，所以事故自然多，但是e 穷，本身没有多少车，自然事故少，这样的理由也很牵强，毕竟人家给了neighboring 这个词，咱们视而不见也不太懂礼貌，是不是~~
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我认为：还有一个思维漏洞所这没有批，就是他假设了f 原来的限速和e 的限速一样！
因为这句话if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase.文章前面并没有说两者一样啊，也许你原来的限速还是比人家的高，那你不是白说了这么一大堆？你可以将限速改到和e一样。大家觉得对么？大家注意了，这篇的评语中并没有说The writer probes each questionable assumption and offers alternative explanations（这个评论在Claria university那篇提到了）说明也许他还有东西没有挖掘出来的，毕竟范文也不是非得十全十美吗~~~嘿嘿~~
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End 基于这篇文章是出于大家的安全考虑而提出的降低限速的建议，当然初衷是好的，但是考虑不周全，作者就是建议人的身份写出了这篇文章，我们在写的时候也要想想，它的目的是什么，那我们的应该和他一样的立场上，只不过我们要更有洞察力和全面思维的能力。
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berninaUID: 2503038

哎呀呀 好多地方不怎么好看，一会草木会帮我把那个可怜的图的原版发上来 嘿嘿

berninaUID: 2503038

:mad:　我怎么弄得乱七八糟的，晕～～～

草木也知愁UID: 2487572

我来帮你整理吧

irvine666UID: 2575525

啊呀嘿...我来顶了，有思想的同志，就是好同志！

sakuraanneUID: 2253519

支持！

berninaUID: 2503038

关于我自己说的那个逻辑漏洞大家有没有什么意见？

草木也知愁UID: 2487572

呵呵 占座 现在宿舍太吵 回头细说

ddcmj519UID: 176326

占。围观。

老实说我觉得二三段中间差个连接词/句的感觉。。每次看都要疙瘩一下。。。

zzz.321UID: 2600329

支持组长工作，组长辛苦，觉得分析得蛮好的，学习了～～

很同意你补充的逻辑漏洞，另外我还试着找了找其它原因，我觉得任何法律法规从生效到起作用应该都需要一定时间，六个月的时间可能还没有完全起作用，还有就是你说相邻的地区发展程度可能相似，这个我觉得不一定，即使发展程度确实相似，那也有可能一个地区较大，一个较小，也可能导致不同的结果。以上为个人观点～～

seiranzcc1UID: 2514067

Bernina的分析很透彻，尤其是破题方式，给我很大启发

对于contrast型的论断，有如下关键：

1、比较词。作者在比较的时候究竟考虑了哪些情况，是不是做出了不严密的假设？那么在实际情况下是不是还有其他因素在影响着题目中的情况？

2、逻辑连接词（就是什么therefore啥的）。这个在于找出作者逻辑链，看清楚作者究竟想说个什么。

橙色-主题句
蓝色-我的分析
紫色-我的想法
粉红-好句子，好词


The agrument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned.By making a comparison of the region of Forestville, the town with the higher speed limit and therefore automobile accidents, with the region of Elmsford, an area of a lower speed limit and subsequently fewer accidents, the argument for reducing Forestville's speed limits in order to decrease accidents seems logical.

However, the citizens of Forestville are failing to consider other possible alternatives to the increasing car accidents after the raise in speed limit. Such alternatives may include the fact that there are less reliable cars traveling the roads in Forestville, or that the age bracket of those in Elmsford may be more conducive to driving safely.It is possible that there are more younger, inexperienced, or more elderly, unsafe drivers in Forestville than there are in Elmsford. In addition, the citizens have failed to consider the geographical and physical terrain of the two different areas. Perhaps Forestville's highway is in an area of more dangerous curves, sharp turns, or has many intersections or merging points where accidents are more likely to occur.It appears reasonable, therefore, for the citizens to focus on these trouble spots than to reduce the speed in the entire area.Elmsford may be an area of easier driving conditions where accidents are less likely to occur regardless of the speed limit.(SPEAKER漏洞1、比较过程中客观因素考虑不全面。作者其实是假设了两地除了speed limit之外所有条件都一样。但针对不同的地方，哪怕是相邻，还是有若干客观因素要考虑：人，地理环境，公共设施等等。作者就是选取了两个最重要的点，人和自然地况去做分析。)
我觉得路况也是值得考虑的因素，虽然楼主大人说攻击击经济状况有点扯，但是两个邻近地区公路质量有点差距还是可能吧，这应该也是造成事故的原因之一

A six-month period is not a particularly long time frame for the citizens to determine that speed limit has influenced the number of automobile accidents in the area.It is mentioned in the argument that Elmsford accidents decreased during the time period.This may have been a time, such as during harsh weather conditions, when less people were driving on the road and therefore the number of accidents decreased. However, Forestville citizens, perhaps coerced by employment or other requirements, were unable to avoid driving on the roads. Again, the demographics of the population are important. It is possible that Elmsford citizens do not have to travel far from work or work from their home, or do not work at all. Are there more people in Forestville than there were sic months ago? If so, there may be an increased number of accidents due to more automobiles on the road, and not due to the increased speed limits. Also in reference to the activities of the population, it is possible that Forestville inhabitants were traveling during less safe times of the day, such as early in the morning, or during twilight. Work or family habits may have encouraged citizens to drive during this time when Elmsford residents may not have been forced to do so.（SPEAKER漏洞2、对样本的分析不周（我不是太会表达这个，我下面细说）。一来是调查选取的时间段不够长不具备太强参考性；另一个，也是这段最强调的：SPEAKER没有考虑“变化”，也就是实际情况下可能发生的包括天气变化、人口变动、职业和生活需求不同等因素。从SPEAKER的论断里可以看出来，SPEAKER是把交通放在了一个理想情况下考虑的，也就是“交通事故的发生只与速度有关”，speed limit 是唯一的变量。但实际情况当然不是如此，只要从可能变化的各个方面入手就可以了，作者就找到了“天气”“行驶路程”“行驶时段”这三点加以攻击。）

Overall, the reasoning behind decreasing Forestville's speed limit back to its original seems logical as presented above since the citizens are acting in their own best interests and want to protect their safety.However, before any final decisions are made about the reduction in speed limit, the citizens and officials of Forestville should evaluate all possible alternatives and causes for the increased number of accidents over the six-month period as compared to Elmsford.

tracywlzUID: 2522388

看到了啊。占座

艾尘草UID: 2591798

组长的这篇文章让我受益菲浅,逻辑思路很明确,对于NEIBOURING 和SAME TIME各个击破逻辑要点,开头结尾简明扼要~不愧是范文啊~~(感叹+佩服)
好的方面我觉得任何看过这个文章的朋友都能感受到,再次谢谢组长~
我还想补充一下我感觉到的逻辑漏洞,两个地区的道路状况的不同应该是个攻击点(限速应该是其中之一把~),例如道路的维修情况,危险标志的设置,包括限速的标志的设置,这个应该归与BODY1把~以这个同车辆以及地形做对比,可以增加逻辑漏洞,其实这个也与地方的地区的经济发展有关系,也可以与车辆的情况总结为一条~
这个应该算是读后感把~

justdoit!UID: 2533175

好感动啊。。。只是我的时间不多了。。。唉。。。