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本帖最后由 银落 于 2009-5-9 22:25 编辑
【INTO THE FIRE】 Argument14 by 银落(saya)
Argument14
The owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center recommends greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds for gardeners to raise profits. To support this recommendation the owner cites several facts such as dissatisfaction with the quality of fresh vegetable in supermarket by a national survey, good sales of Great Gardens, a gardening magazine, at the Village News stand in three months. Close scrutiny of each of those evidences reveals that none of them lend credible hand to substantiate the recommendation.
First, the survey might be problematic as the national majority cannot represents what most local people might conclude about the quality of fresh vegetable in supermarket. Depending on the national attitude of discontent, it is entirely possible that the fresh vegetable quality is quite different from the national ones, thus people in suburban town will be more willing to purchase their vegetable in local supermarket.
Next, even if local people are dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetable in supermarket, the conclusion that they would prefer growing vegetables themselves are not strongly substantiated according to the assumption. Perhaps consumers would stick to the vegetable in supermarket tolerating the bad quality, or turn to grocery instead. And alternative such as buying more food like fruit, milk, meat other than vegetable might also be a viable one. Without considering or ruling out these possible facts or some others, the recommendation cannot be confidently put forward that demand in vegetable seeds will rise locally.
Finally, the phenomenon cited by the owner that the gardening magazine, Great Gardens, has sold out at one stand cannot support the tendency of local people that growing interesting will be placed on buying vegetable seeds stored by Green Thumb Gardening Center. Perhaps, the stand do not offer many magazines, but a few, and coincidently Great Gardens is one of them sold at the stand, or it is totally possible that this magazine is not available elsewhere, or maybe Village News is the only stand in that suburban town. Moreover, given the evidence that readers are more attracted by the magazine, it also cannot better support the recommendation for the local will read this kind of magazine rather than growing vegetable personally. Lacking evidence that this is the case, the recommendation made by the owner can be seriously poor advice.
In a nutshell, the argument is logically flawed and therefore especially unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation, the owner should provide a local survey about whether people there are not satisfied with the quality of vegetable in supermarket, and the possible choice for consumers to get vegetable. We also need to know the whole sale of every gardening magazine in each stand located in town instead of that of one, the reason why people buy this magazine and the condition that if readers would accordingly have interests in growing vegetable on their own.
Saya.
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