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- 声望
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发表于 2009-5-30 15:04:52
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ARGUMENT173
The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn.
'Our poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that they devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers.'
This argument presents three reasons supporting that the publisher should decrease their emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on their magazines covers. At first glance, this analysis seems a kind of specific and plausible. A deeper investigation, however, reveals it replete with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted claims in several aspects.
First of all, the publisher should identify what really caused the poorest sales of the magazine issues featured international news story on their front covers over the past three years. The argument claims that the international news story on their front covers was the reason. However, the story on a magazine cover is only one of the many factors that might influence the sales. The reason may lie in the fact that readers don't like the cover design of international issues, since, as we know, attractive magazine covers are more likely to stimulate readers to purchase. Or readers may actually like international stories in general, but the international stories provided by this magazine were not fitted to their tastes, they hence buy other magazines to read international stories. Unless the arguer recognizes and rules out these possibilities of the decreasing sales, his/her reason is not well grounded.
Furthermore, the action of competing news-magazines has little meaning to the conclusion unless the publisher is clear of the real causes behind the action or the final results after the action. The competing news-magazines decreasing the number of cover stories of international news over the same period may have realized that they didn't have the enough necessary resources, such as the high-caliber international correspondents, or excellent editors focusing on international affairs, to provide high quality international reports at that time, so they decided to concentrate on the domestic news for a while until they get enough resources in the future. If the Newsbeat's publisher has the enough resources to publish high-quality international stories, and there is still demand for international stories, it may be the time for Newsbeat to increase, instead of decreasing, the number of international cover stories to expand its market share, since the supply declined. Besides, even if the competing magazines reduced the number of international cover stories for other easonable reasons, the Newsbeat magazine should compare the sales before with the one after to inspect whether this action really boosted the magazine sales. Without considering this information, this arguer can't substantiate his/her conclusion.
Last but not least, even though the increasing cost is one of the important elements for the publisher to take account when making a choice, it alone can't suffice to support the conclusion. It's rational for us, when making a choice, to make the benefit-cost analysis rather than only the cost analysis. If the total benefit to display international stories on the magazine covers is still bigger than the total opportunity cost, even after the cost of maintaining the foreign bureaus has increased, the publisher should continue to run the magazine in the same way. Even if the total opportunity cost is bigger than the benefit, the magazine Newsbeat still needs to decide whether the trend of increasing cost will continue, and whether there are other alternatives to cut down the total cost, such as through the innovative way to reorganize the company structure, or by reducing the unnecessary management expenses. Factors such as these could influence the publisher's choice and undermine the arguer's explanations.
In conclusion, the argument, while it seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. The argument could be improved by ruling out the other possible reasons of the declined sells, and by providing the evidence explaining the real causes of the competing magazines' international story cover cut and the final outcomes of that action. It could be further improved by doing the benefit-cost analysis rather than the sole cost analysis. |
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