[2007.11.22]The candidates Mike Huckabee

ewe33d64UID: 2644935

[2007.11.22]The candidates: Mike Huckabee
候选人：麦克.哈克比

Faith, Hope and populism
信仰，Hope与平民主义

Nov 22nd 2007 | WHITEFIELD, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition



Is another former governor of Arkansas the answer to conservative prayers?
另一个前阿肯色州州长会成为保守的祈祷者们的答案吗？

WPN


“THERE are no perfect candidates. We had one 2,000 years ago, but we crucified him,” says John Stemberger, a family-values enthusiast from Florida. That pretty much captures the mood among socially conservative voters. If you think abortion on demand is a holocaust and gay marriage threatens to undermine the conventional sort, you are unlikely to back a Democrat. On the other hand, none of the leading Republicans thrills the religious right either.

“没有完美的候选人。2000年前曾有一个，但我们把他钉上了十字架。”John Stemberger，一位来自佛罗里达州的家庭价值热衷者这样说。这种说法的确准确捕捉到了保守派投票人的心态。如果你认为人工流产是大屠杀，而同性恋婚姻威胁到传统习俗，你不大可能会去支持一个民主党人。另一方面，也没有一个领先的共和党人会去刺激宗教信仰。


Rudy Giuliani is pro-choice on abortion. Fred Thompson lacks gumption. Mitt Romney is a Mormon. John McCain tells a moving story of his time being tortured by godless communists: one of his Vietnamese guards secretly loosened the ropes that trussed him and, by way of explanation, drew a cross in the dirt with his foot. But Mr McCain has long riled religious conservatives, once calling the late televangelist Jerry Falwell an “agent of intolerance”.

Rudy Giuliani支持堕胎。Fred Thompson缺乏进取心。Mitt Romney是摩门教徒。John McCain讲述了一个动人的关于他被不敬上帝的共产主义者们所折磨时发生的故事：一个越南看守偷偷地松开了绑着他的绳子，并且，为了解释自己的行为，用脚在尘土中划了一个十字。但是McCain先生已经惹恼了宗教上的保守派们，有一次他称呼最近的电视福音传道者Jerry Falwell是“偏狭的代理人”。


Enter Mike Huckabee. A couple of months ago, few people had heard of him outside his native Arkansas, where he was governor. This week a poll put him a close second among Republicans in Iowa, the crucial first-voting state. He came within four points of the leader, Mr Romney, and has trebled his support since July, leaping from 8% to 24%. Twice as many evangelical Protestants in Iowa backed Mr Huckabee as backed Mr Romney, with the rest of the field nowhere. Pundits now have to take Mr Huckabee seriously.

Mike Huckabee出场了。几个月以前，除了他出生的阿肯色州（他曾是该州州长）很少有人听说过他。这个星期的一个民意测验表明他在衣阿华州（第一轮投票的关键州）共和党人中的支持率已经非常接近第一名。他以4个点的弱势紧跟共和党领导人Romney先生。并且从7月以来他的支持率已经翻了两番，从8％跃到了24％。衣阿华州支持Huckabee先生的福音派新教徒是支持Romney先生的两倍，其它地方的情况还不知道。专家们现在不得不认真对待Huckabee先生了。


His core appeal is to “values voters”, as they sometimes call themselves. Pro-lifers and evangelical Protestants immediately sense that he is one of them. He is a Baptist minister. He can cram eight Bible stories into a single paragraph. He can say things like “it's important that the language of Zion is a mother tongue and not a recently acquired second language” without it sounding contrived. (Pious audiences know this is a dig at Mr Romney, who only became pro-life when he was thinking of running for president.) He can even link abortion with illegal immigration: would America need to import so many workers if it hadn't let multitudes die in the womb?

他的主要吸引对象是“价值观投票者”，就像他们有时自称的那样。反堕胎者和福音派新教徒立即意识到他是他们其中一员。他是个浸礼派牧师。他能够在一段话中塞入八个圣经故事。他能够说出类似这样的话“重要的是天国的语言是母语而非最近才获得的第二语言”，而不让人听了觉得虚假（虔诚的听众知道这是Romney先生的缺陷所在，他仅在考虑竞选总统时才成为反堕胎者）。他甚至能将非法移民和堕胎联系起来：如果不让群众死在子宫里，美国有必要引进这么多工人吗？


If social conservatives were to coalesce around Mr Huckabee, that would throw the Republican primaries into utter confusion. The candidate they back tends to win the Republican nomination. Their record turnout in 2004 helped George Bush beat John Kerry. Yet social conservatives are only a small minority of the national electorate, so they have to pick a candidate who also appeals to others. Some think that Mr Huckabee might be that candidate.

如果社会保守派聚集到Huckabee先生周围，这将使共和党的初选陷入极大的混乱。他们支持的候选人将赢得共和党的提名。他们2004年创记录的投票率帮助Georgy Bush打败了John Kerry。然而社会保守派只占全国投票者的一小部分，因此他们不得不挑选一个也能获得其他人支持的候选人。一些人认为Huckabee先生可能就是那个候选人。


Largely, this is because of his personality. On the campaign trail, he is approachable, chummy and eloquent. He talks about hunting. He plays the bass guitar with school bands. He plays up his endorsement by a bearded action-movie star: “My plan to secure the border? Two words: Chuck Norris.” As the son of a fireman and the first man in his family to finish high school, Mr Huckabee embodies the American dream in a way that Mr Romney, the big-businessman-turned-governor son of a big-businessman-turned-governor, cannot hope to.

主要地，这是由于他的个性。在竞选活动中，他随和、友好、雄辩。他谈论打猎。他跟校乐队玩低音吉他。他用一位大胡子电影明星来强调他的观点：“我守卫边界的计划？两个字：Chunk Norris。”（译注：Chunk Norris代表超级超级厉害的角色）作为一名消防队员的儿子和家族中头一个完成中学学业的男人，Huckabee先生实现美国梦的方法是Romney先生，一位从大商人成为州长的人的儿子，自己也是从大商人成为州长的人，不可能希望的。


He cracks corny jokes. He admits they are corny, yet crowds love them. On a recent stop in New Hampshire, he suggested that Jesus doesn't approve of air travel. “He said: ‘Lo, I am with you always.’ But He said nothing about up high.”

他讲老掉牙的笑话。他承认它们是老掉牙的，然而人们喜欢它们。最近在New Hampshire的一次停留中，他说耶稣不赞成空中旅行。“他说：‘看哪，我永远跟你们在一起。’但是他没有说在上面高处。”


Another man from Hope
另一个来自霍普市（Hope）的人

Like Bill Clinton, he hails from Hope, Arkansas. (“Give Hope a second chance,” he quips.) Also like Mr Clinton, he has humanising flaws. He was once colossally fat. Feeling unwell, he asked his doctor what the problem was. “You're fat,” said the doctor. Mr Huckabee said he wanted a second opinion. “OK, you're ugly, too,” came the reply. Mr Huckabee got a grip, lost 100lb (45kg) and now runs marathons. He wrote a diet book: “Quit Digging Your Grave with a Knife and Fork”. At a dinner in New Hampshire, he offered your correspondent his sticky pudding.

与Bill Clinton一样，他来自于阿肯色州，霍普市。（“给Hope第二次机会”，他风趣地说。）也跟Clinton先生一样，他有感化污点。他曾经非常肥胖。感觉不好，他问医生出了什么问题。“你肥胖，”医生说。Huckabee先生说他想要第二个选项。“好吧，你也很丑。”回答说。Huckabee先生恢复自制力并改进行为，减掉了100lb(45kg)，而且现在跑马拉松。他写了一本节食的书：“停止用刀和叉自掘坟墓”。在New Hampshire的一次晚餐中，他递给通讯记者他黏糊糊的布丁。


Many voters find this appealing. Values voters, typically poorer and less well-educated than other Republicans, sense a kindred spirit. Heck, plenty of Americans can relate to a man who has wrestled with extra rolls. Plenty applaud a candidate who seems so straightforward, too. In a poll by YouGov/Polimetrix for The Economist (full results here), Republicans rated him the most honest candidate and Americans rated him the most moral of either party (see chart: Hillary Clinton was rated the least honest, and, after Mr Giuliani, the least moral).

许多投票者发现这很动人。价值观投票者，与其它共和党人相比通常都是比较穷和受过较少教育的人，他们能感觉到谁是与自己意气相投的人。真见鬼，大量的美国人能理解一位从extra rolls奋斗过来的男人。也有大量的人支持一位看起来如此坦率的候选人。在YouGov/Polimetrix为The Economist所做的一次民意测验中，共和党人认为他是最诚实的候选人，美国人认为他是两党之中最道德的人（见图表：Hillary Clinton被认为是最不诚实的，以及，排在Giuliani先生之后，最不道德的）。



Mr Huckabee's weakness is the worry that he may be a lightweight figuratively as well as literally. It is fine for his 12-step weight-loss plan to be simple. “Eat less and exercise more” is good advice. But his 12-step plan to “restore America's greatness” is worryingly populist.

Huckabee先生的弱点在于对他可能是个思想深度不够的人－从比喻的意义或字面上来说都是这样－的担心。他减掉体重的12步计划很简单，这没有问题。“少吃并且多锻炼”是个好建议。但是他“恢复美国的伟大”的12步计划令人担忧地是平民主义的。


Take trade. Mr Huckabee calls himself a free-trader, but on the stump he does not sound like one. He rouses nativist crowds by fretting that America cannot be secure unless it is self-sufficient in food, energy and military hardware. “I don't want to see our food come from China, our oil come from Saudi Arabia and our manufacturing come from Europe and Asia,” he says. “There is so much foolishness in that one sentence it is hard to unpack,” comments Rich Lowry, a conservative columnist. America hardly imports any food from China. Mr Huckabee's promise of energy independence within 10 years is impossible. And cheap imports benefit precisely the cash-strapped folk Mr Huckabee purports to champion.

谈谈贸易。Huckabee先生称自己是一个自由贸易者，但在巡回演讲中听起来他可不像是。他鼓动本土主义者，说美国不可能安全，除非它在食物、能源和重型军事装备上自给自足。“我不想看到我们的食物来自中国，我们的石油来自沙特阿拉伯，我们的制造业来自欧洲和亚洲。”他说。“那一个句子里就有这么多的愚蠢，很难把它们一一分解开来。”一名保守派专栏作家Rich Lowry评论说。美国几乎没有从中国进口任何食品。Huckabee先生10年之内使能源自给自足的承诺是不可能的。并且廉价进口的受益者正是那些缺钱的Huckabee先生声称要维护的人们。


Mr Huckabee's tax plan is as radical as it is ill-thought out. To achieve a populist goal—abolishing income tax—he proposes a federal sales tax. To make up for lost revenue, it would have to be a stiff one, and levied on practically everything. Mr Huckabee says a rate of 23% would suffice, but this is a sleight of hand. Calculated the way sales taxes usually are, the rate would have to be at least 30% and possibly much higher. This would be horribly regressive. Mr Huckabee says he can solve that problem by giving monthly rebate cheques to those who need them. But to track Americans' income month by month would require a bureaucracy nearly as intrusive as the one Mr Huckabee hopes to abolish by repealing the income tax. The plan is a non-starter.

Huckabee先生的税收计划荒谬得就像它是被恶意设计出来的。为达到平民主义目标－废除收入税－他提议一种联邦销售税。为弥补损失的税收，就不得不有一个严厉的税，而且几乎在所有事情上征收。Huckabee先生说23％的税率足够了，但是这里耍了一点小手腕。按照销售税的通常计算方法，新税率至少达到30％，而且还可能高得多。这将可怕地对穷人比对富人有更大的影响。Huckabee先生说他能够通过每个月将退税支票给与那些需要它的人们来解决这个问题。但是为了一个月接一个月地跟踪美国人的收入，就需要一个政府机构，该机构几乎跟Huckabee先生希望通过取消收入税来废止的机构一样令人恼火。这是个决没有成功机会的计划。


On green issues, he is all mood and little substance. He says God wants us to look after the earth, and touts his own use of a flex-fuel car. But he has no serious plan to reduce greenhouse gases. A carbon tax, he claims, sounds too much like a tax. And a cap-and-trade system sounds “a bit like buying indulgences from the ancient church,” he told the Wall Street Journal.

在环保问题上，他所有的只是态度而没有实质。他说上帝要我们照看好地球，并宣扬他自己对混合燃料汽车的使用。但是没有严肃的计划去减少温室气体。碳释放税，他声明说，听起来太像一种税了。而总量管制与排放交易系统听起来“有点像从古代教堂买恕罪券。”他告诉《华尔街日报》。


Mr Huckabee's ideas on health care are considerably sounder, and he sells them deftly. He understands that costs are out of control. “We have to change a system that happily pays $30,000 for a diabetic to have his foot amputated, but won't pay for the shoes that would save his foot,” he says. He warns, wisely, of the looming budgetary calamity when baby-boomers start claiming Medicare (public health care for the elderly). Or as he puts it: when “all the old hippies find out that they get free drugs.” He touts the benefits of prevention, citing his own life-saving weight loss as an example.

Huckabee先生在医疗保健方面的想法则要好得多，而且他灵巧地推销它们。他了解费用失去了控制。“我们不得不改变一个系统，该系统乐意为一个糖尿病人支付30000美元以让他的脚被截肢，却不愿意为能够拯救他的脚的那双鞋付钱。”他说。对于当婴儿潮的一代开始申请Medcare（对面老年人的公众医疗保健）时出现的使人畏惧的预算灾难，他明智地提出警告。或者像他说的那样：当“所有的老人高兴地发现他们可以获得免费药品时。”他宣扬预防的好处，以他自己救命的减肥为例子。


Weighed in the balance
悬而未决

Overall, though, Mr Huckabee is a less rounded candidate than his chief rivals. He has little or no experience of foreign policy. His support among self-described moderate Republican voters in Iowa is negligible. He was not a bad governor of Arkansas—he fixed up the state's roads and schools. But his success was hardly as dramatic as Mr Giuliani's in New York, nor has he anything like Mr Romney's breadth of executive experience. The website for the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think-tank, lists the various candidates' positions on a range of foreign-policy areas: on an embarrassing number of them, including defence, North Korea, Africa and India, Mr Huckabee's position is listed as “unknown”.

然而，总的来说，Huckabee先生与他的主要对手比较是个不那么完美的人。他只有很少或者没有外交政策经验。他在自我描述为温和的共和党投票人中的支持微不足道。他不是一个Arkansas州的坏州长－他修好了该州公路和学校。但是他的成就没有Giuliani先生在纽约的那么使人印象深刻，他也没有Romney先生的那么深厚的行政管理经验。外交关系委员会，纽约的一个智囊团，在它的网站上列出了各候选人在外交政策的各个领域上所处的位置：在多得令人困窘的各个领域里,buy wow gold，包括国防，朝鲜，非洲和印度，Huckabee先生的位置被列为“未知”。


And as people start to take Mr Huckabee's presidential bid seriously, he will face the sort of hostile scrutiny he has so far mostly avoided. The Club for Growth, a lobby for economic conservatives, assails him for hiking sales and petrol taxes in Arkansas, and for his attacks on industries he accused of “price-gouging”. The Club says that nominating him would be “an abject rejection” of the free-market, limited-government principles for which the Republican Party stands. The Cato Institute, a libertarian think-tank, gave him a “D” grade for fiscal policy. Salon.com, an online journal, recently published a long list of ethical complaints about Mr Huckabee compiled by a reporter from Arkansas.

随着人们开始认真对待Huckabee先生的总统竞选企图，他将要面对迄今为止几乎都避免了的那种敌意的审查。增长俱乐部，一个经济保守派的游说团体，攻击说他提高了Arkansas州的销售和汽油税，而且说他指控企业犯有“价格欺诈”。俱乐部说提名他为候选人将是对共和党坚持的“自由市场，受限政府”原则的卑劣抛弃。Cato研究所，一个自由意志主义者的智囊团，在财政政策上给了他一个“D”。Salon.com，一份在线杂志，最近出版了由来自Arkansas的记者收集编撰的一份有关对Huckbee先生的道德上不满的抱怨清单。


Nationally, voters still think Mr Huckabee likeable and godly. That is probably not enough to win him the Republican nomination. But he might easily peel enough values voters away from Mr Romney to hand the race to Mr Giuliani, which might in turn prompt pro-lifers to support a third-party candidate in the general election. With five candidates still very much in the frame and no one convincingly ahead, the Republican primaries will certainly not be dull.

从全国范围来说，选民们仍然认为Huckbee先生是可爱和虔敬的。要赢得共和党提名，这也许还不够。但是他可能能够轻易从Romney先生那儿剥走足够多的价值观投票者，从而将竞争机会交到Giuliani先生手中，这样反过来将促使反堕胎者在大选中去支持一个第三方候选人。由于五位候选人仍然都有胜出的机会，而且无人拥有令人信服的领先优势，共和党人的初选将肯定不会沉闷。



[ 本帖最后由 7colorwolf 于 2007-12-2 16:35 编辑 ]