Argument提纲 @@A DREAM @@小组第1次作业 by robertxj

robertxjUID: 2645881

80：conclusion：

in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers.
但是，这个结论是建立在一个假设的前提条件下，那就是“cooking with water containing clormium 5” 和 “an increased incidence of
allergies and skin rashes”之间，存在必然的联系，这个联系，并不是必然的，作者并没有给与充分的论证，从这里进行驳斥。另外，可以让步，就算这个联系是存在的，作者又说，因为the costs of routine testing and purification are higher than many communities can afford.所以要replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers，这里的逻辑关系不对，不存在因果关系，就算这样做了，那么除了public buildings之外，其他地方的水的质量怎么办呢？这又是一个逻辑错误点。
82：
Conclusion：people who use wood as their primary fuel can,
without experiencing economic hardship, switch to charcoal and can thereby improve their health and preserve the environment.
Reason1：wood smoke can cause respiratory and eye problems,
Reason2：extensive use of wood causes deforestation
Reason3：less charcoal is needed to produce the same amount of heat
Reason4：charcoal, made by partially burning wood in a controlled process, is a fuel that creates less smoke than wood does
首先，结论分两部分，第一是switch to charcoal can improve their health,第二是switch to charcoal can preserve the environment.我们可以分别驳斥。第一，他说可以improve health的原因是creates less smoke，但是，烟的多少，并不是它影响人身体的唯一标准，烟的浓度，烟的成分等，都会对人的身体有影响，只单纯用烟的多少来说，站不住脚。第二，他说可以preserve the environment，他的理由是less charcoal is needed to produce the same amount of heat。可是，这里less charcoal并不意味着less trees，也就不意味着reserve the environment。
83：
Conclusion：Medicine Inc. is likely to continue to have increasing profits and should plan to open an additional drugstore next year
Reason1：when a nation's economy is weak, drugstores' profits are unlikely to decline appreciably.
Reason2：While consumers might put off some kinds of purchases
when the economy is slow, prescription and over-the-counter drug purchases are dictated by consumers' health needs, which are independent of the economy
首先，理由一说的是利润可能不会明显下降，即使他说的成立，不明显下降，那也是下降，下降多少，作者并没有说，最后所剩的利润，可能和别的行业比，已经算低利润率了，论据不够充分，没有说服力。
其次，在经济环境不好的情况下，顾客可能不会根据处方买药，会自己根据经济情况不买药，或者买便宜的药，这些都会影响到药店利润。
92
Conclusion：we should
therefore implement our own on-site childcare program. The program will undoubtedly reduce our unscheduled employee absences, resulting in significantly increased productivity."
Reason：ex：Bridgewell Corporation
这里将两个公司做了类比，将Bridgewell Corporation的例子，完全照搬的要移植到Techforce公司，可是两个公司的基本情况可能根本不一样，比如公司人员组成，可能Techforce会以未婚人士为主的年轻团队，这样，他们的家属，孩子，就会很少，自然，孩子不能成为缺席的原因。另外两个公司的地理位置，繁忙的时段，可能都不同，总之，不能不加判断的盲目照搬。
93
Conclusion：we should use Alpha Construction Company, rather than Zeta,for all future building projects.
Reason1：the two buildings had virtually identical floor plans, the building constructed by Zeta cost 30 percent more to build
Reason2：
its expenses for maintenance last year were twice those of the building constructed by Alpha
reason3：
the energy consumption of the Zeta building has been higher than that of the Alpha building every year since its construction.
Reason4：Alpha has a stable workforce with little employee turnover
首先，虽然identical floor plans，但是因为两个地方不一样，可能地质不一样，原料来源不一样，运输成本不一样，都会导致费用不同。
其次，维护的费用，可能也根两个地方的地理环境，气候，比如多雨，大风，沙尘等，都会影响维护费用
再次，两个地方energy价格可能不同，所以energy consumption不同。
最后，人员流动少，并不是这个公司好的充分条件，流动少可能是他们违约金高，又或者他们所在地区没有更好的工作，或者缺少竞争机制。
104
Conclusion：
the new head-mounted device should replace the older
device at all hospitals and research institutions.
Reason1：remain completely still，a very loud noise，measures eye movements rather than blood flow，allows
patients to move
首先，可以获得更好数据的前提是新设备比就设备获得的更精确数据，可是，作者只是因为新设备可以让人动而得出结论，新设备获得更精确的数据，这是片面的，因为可能旧设备测量血液流动的精密程度远比新设备测量眼睛的高。
另外，即使新设备更精密，但是可能很多地方不需要这么精确的数据，旧设备已经足够了，就不需要花钱无用的设备了。
115
Conclusion：
clothing manufacturers must find a way to reduce prices in order to keep their existing customers and maintain their businesses.
Reason：
Eighty-nine percent of the approximately 20,000 respondents reported that
they were either "dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with current
clothing prices
首先，调查的样本数量并不足够，没有说服力，另外，顾客满不满意并不能是公司调不调价的理由，可能只有很少一部分顾客可以承受这个价格，但是这个公司可能是奢侈品，利润高。
116
Conclusion：
we should change the pricing policy at all of our Oak City
stores from our current 'everyday low prices' policy to a 'high-low'
policy. This will increase the profits at all of our stores in Oak City
reason：Elm City的例子做类比
首先，两个地区的居民组成，居民的经济水平是不同的，不能盲目的移植过去，另外，Elm City有可能只是在居民刚刚到那里，对周围购物环境不熟悉的情况下，会被这种销售策略蒙蔽。
121
Conclusion：
Cyberell
should send only new employees to future retreats and should use the
resulting savings to double the length of the retreats so that the
retreats will be more likely to yield optimum employee performance.
Reason：
Cyberell's employee-performance study showed that the
retreat benefited new employees-those who have worked with Cyberell for
less than two years-far more than it did experienced employees
首先，培训时间和工作效益提高不一定是成正比的，不能说培训时间加倍了，工作效率也加倍，另外，只培训年轻员工，很可能引发年轻员工对加倍培训的不满，影响工作情绪，这样，就会降低工作效率。
122
Conclusion：
the best way to avoid this expense is to increase reimbursement to
residents for replacing energy-wasteful equipment. This will reduce energy
usage to the levels of five years ago.
Reason1：For ten years, spending on this program increased annually, and
annual total energy consumption declined
Reason2：But spending on the program
began to decline five years ago, and since then Pine City's total
electricity consumption has increased sharply.
首先 energy usage 并不是只决定于用电器是否是节能电器，还与用电器设备的数量有关，可能当今科技发展了，家用电器种类更加繁多，必然导致用电总量增加，另外，不同时间，居民的心态是不同的，你现在给居民补偿换节能电器，居民不一定会和以前有同样的积极相应。


126
Conclusion：
people should try to get seven hours of sleep, and
they should worry more about getting too much sleep than too little.
Reason1：
But a recent six-year study of adult sleeping
habits found that people who reported sleeping eight or more hours a night
had a higher rate of certain health problems than did those who reported
sleeping seven hours a night
Reason2：
People who reported sleeping five hours a
night also had an increased rate of the health problems, but this increase
was slight compared to that for people who reported sleeping eight or more
hours a night
首先，作者建议大家睡七个小时，七个小时，就算他的试验是充分的，正确的，七个小时也只是比大于八个小时和小于5个小时相比，更健康的，而其他睡眠时间，比如，睡八个小时，很可能会更好，所以建议睡七个小时理由不充分。另外，他的试验只是在成人中，这六年里的试验结果，而结论他却要所有人都这样做，显然不合理，小孩子，老人都不在他的实验中。
130
Conclusion：
we can expect an
increasing demand for products in all our stores nationwide, thus
increasing our profits in the coming year.
Reason1：
Current reports indicate that sales of new homes nationwide declined by 9
percent during the past year, while sales of existing homes increased by
16 percent. Thus we can expect that the percentage of homeowners who will
be making repairs or improvements to their homes will also increase.
Reason2：
people who buy existing homes will have more money left over
after the purchase to spend on home improvements.
Reason3：
people who buy
existing homes are more likely to make improvements themselves, as opposed
to paying someone else
首先，购买新房的减少，购买旧房的增加并不能推出making repairs or improvements to their homes will also increase，因为有可能买新房的人需要装修，而旧房的，直接就可以进去住了。其次，购买旧房很可能就是因为钱不富裕，没有多余的钱装修。最后，其实很少人能自己装修，大部分都要雇人干的。
138
Conclusion：
the bus
service we currently offer will continue to be sufficient to serve the
university
reason1：
Consider the results of the recent campaign
sponsored by the Environmental Club at Southside University: in a program
on the campus radio station, the club asked students to call in and pledge
that they would commute to school by bus instead of by automobile at least
one day per week. Only ten percent of the students called in and pledged.
首先，大家只有百分之十相应这个活动的可能有很多，比如就有可能是因为对现在公交车服务的不满，数量少，间隔时间长，质量差，所以大家才不愿意做公交车。另外，现在的公交车数量是不是足够为百分之十的学生提供服务也是不确定的。
139
Conclusion：
home
schooling is the best way to educate teenage children. Therefore, instead
of spending more money on public education, the government should provide
financial incentives so that home schooling is an option for more parents
reason1:
One study at Lee University found that first-semester grades of teenage
students who had always attended public, tax-supported schools were
slightly lower than the grades of students who had received some home
schooling instruction by parents at home,
Reason2：
children schooled at home receive more attention, since they
are taught by the best possible teacher: a parent who has a high stake in
educating them well.
首先，研究调查的结果只能说明家庭教育对学校教育的帮助作用，其核心还是学校教育，而当更加注重家庭教育，甚至以家庭教育为中心时，教育的效果好坏并不能确定。另外，has a high stake并不意味着能教育好孩子。
148
Conclusion：
voters nationwide tend to re-elect
people already in office, regardless of candidates' proposals
reason：
a
local survey after the election showed most people in Monroetown disagreed
with Mayor Brown's proposal. Clearly most people in Monroetown favor
improving education and therefore approve of Mr. Greene's proposal
大家选了Brown，没有选Greene，可能还有很多其他原因，比如其他方面的政策，人品，让大家看到的希望，而不能把选择谁完全看作依赖于对教育的政策。
170
Conclusion：
they are likely to be willing to
pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and
greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
Reason1：For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to
pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for
Gulf Coast oysters.
首先，Gulf Coastoysters的oyster安全性提高后，在市场上的oyster的总数会提高，供应会加大，所以价格会下降，另外，两面会竞争，所以最后的价格不会还是两倍于原价格。
183
Conclusion：
Many employees of major United States corporations are fearful that
they will lose their jobs in the near future ，this fear is largely unfounded
reason1：
a majority of companies expected
to make new hires in the coming year, while fewer companies expected to
lay off employees.
Reason2：
although it is very disturbing to be laid
off, the proliferation of programs and of workshops designed to improve
job-finding skills has made being laid off far less painful than it once
was.
首先大多公司会雇用新的员工不代表他不会裁掉旧的员工，因为新员工价格低廉，所以他们可以裁剪老员工，增加新员工。另外，在经济不景气的情况下，improve job-finding skills不能保证能获得工作。
196
Conclusion：
widespread negative images of businesspeople have been created
in large part by television.
reason1：although they make up
a mere 10 percent of the characters in dramatic roles on television,
businesspeople are responsible for about one-fifth of all the crime on
television shows
reason2：
in a recent survey of television producers,
only 35 percent of the television roles for businesspeople were viewed as
positive ones.
这些理由支撑论点有一个前提，那就是电视萤幕中的形象可以决定一个角色在现实生活中的形象，这显然是片面的，比电视中演的更重要的时，在现实生活中这些角色的表现。

197
Conclusion：
This will
surely result in improved programs at our university.
Reason：
When the replies come in, we can tabulate them and
formulate an official statement of our educational mission.
首先，这个调查对教学的帮助有多大并不能确定，就算有帮助，统计的准确性也无法保证。
231
Conclusion：they
are not concerned about promoting high-quality education in the arts in
our local schools.
Reason1：
student participation in the high school drama club has been declining steadily
Reason 2：
and this year the school board refused to renew the contract of the drama director, even though he had received many awards for his original plays
Reason3：

Meanwhile, over $300,000 of the high school budget goes to athletic programs, and the head football coach is now the highest-paid member of the teaching staff.
首先，参加高中戏剧俱乐部的学生数量逐渐下降不能说明他们不关心在我们地区学校促进艺术教育的质量，数量和质量是不同的，可以减少数量，提高质量。其次，校委拒绝与戏剧指导续约，可能有其他原因，比如待遇问题，年龄问题，健康问题，家庭问题，不一定是因为他们不关心艺术教育质量了。最后，橄榄球总教练现在是全部教员中薪水最高的人，不能说明不重视艺术，可能橄榄球总教练资历更深，更注明，能力更强，所以待遇高。