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发表于 2009-6-10 23:16:25
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本帖最后由 彩虹沙漠 于 2009-6-11 13:01 编辑
ARGUMENT65: The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
According to their newest store's sale result, citing the result of the survey directed by a magazine, the author draws the assumption that the domestic cheeses are more popular than the imported ones. Then he/she holds the points of view that the best way to improve profits in all of their shores is to discontinue stocking many imported cheeses and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. However, the conclusion is unfounded because of the unfair assumption and his/her poor argument.
Firstly, just grounding on the newest store's sale result, it's hasty and unreasonable for the author to draw the assumption that all their store's situations are the same to the newest store's. The fact that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses can only indicate that the domestic cheeses were more popular than the imported ones in the site where the newest store locates. However, it's entirely possible that the other stores' customers prefer the imported cheeses. Therefore, due to the unfair assumption, the author's recommendation is not reliable at all.
Secondly, the resent survey cited by the author cannot give powerful support to the conclusion either. First, the survey is directed among the magazine's subscribers, but the author takes advantage of the result of the survey to indicate all stores' customers' preference trend without showing any evidence to substantiate that the subscribers' preference can represent their customers'. Through this aspect, the author's conclusion according to the survey is not credible. Second, even if the subscriber' taste is the customers' taste, an increasing preference for domestic cheeses can only indicate a trend, but doesn't account to the fact the domestic cheeses are more popular than the imported ones. Totally possible is that the number of the customers who prefered the domestic ones was very small in the past, so the imported chesses are now more popular than the domestic ones in spite of the domestic ones being more and more popular. Consequentially, the author's recommendation doesn't have enough reason to be adopted.
Finally, granted that the above assumption is sound, there's no evidence to buttress that changing the stock strategy is the best way to improve profits. Indisputably, it's a mix-factor that makes influence on the profits of the stores. Even if the author's stores shift their emphasis from the imported cheeses to domestic ones, nobody can say they will be profitable. Maybe their competing companies also change their strategy and make a cheaper price available. In that case, it's too hard to promise a success. So the author's conclusion seems too assertive and undependable.
To sum up, more information is needed to confirm the crucial assumption that the domestic cheeses are popular than the imported ones. In addition, to strength the author's recommendation, he/she should also rule out the other possible factors which will influence the profits of the stores. |
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