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本帖最后由 家家☆yoonjae 于 2009-6-14 20:08 编辑
Argument 6
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
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Grounding on the nearest jazz club is still quite far away from Monroe and then synthesizing the three circumstances sustain the popularity of jazz music, also the nationwide study which indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment; the author accordingly suggests that the new jazz club cannot help but make money. However, after carefully examination of this supporting evidence, it reveals that it lends little credible support to the author’s suggestion.
Firstly, the arguer claimed that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away from Monroe, thus the new jazz club would have the local market all to itself. It’s really cursory and unilateral for him to conclude this conclusion. The nearest jazz club is 65 miles faraway, doesn’t mean there is no other kind of club which also plays jazz music even if it is not a special jazz club. And the new club needs to attract more consumers; only geographical advantage is not enough, music quality, management, decoration, alcohol & beverages, etc. all these factors can affect the amount of consumers.
Secondly, the arguer concluded jazz is extremely popular in Monroe according to three circumstances: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Although there is quite a lot of people attended Monroe’s jazz festival, we are still not sure whether this trend will continue or not in this year. It’s true that several well-known jazz musicians live locally, but they may have very tight schedule and can spend no time in the new jazz club or ask for a huge amount of performance fees. 'Jazz Nightly' which is the highest-rated radio program cannot strongly support the evidence of very popular jazz in Monroe, because maybe there is few people listen to the radio. Even if jazz was really very hot in Monroe as the author concluded, we cannot find the link of popularity and expense; a person may like jazz music very much but this doesn’t mean he would like to spend other money on it, he can choose some free ways of enjoying jazz such as radio program.
Thirdly, the author cited the nationwide study which indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment to prove the new club will earn a lot of money from those jazz fans, this is also irrational. There are several different choices for a jazz fan to spend money on jazz entertainment, jazz tapes, jazz CDs, famous jazz musicians’ concerts, jazz instruments, jazz magazines and so on, so a jazz fan spend such money on relevant jazz things doesn’t mean a lot of high benefits of opening a jazz club. Even though jazz fans would spend a lot on jazz club, we cannot say the new jazz club C note would earn a lot without consider the cost problem; rent and operating expenses probably to be extremely high in Monroe.
To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more information concerning the cost of opening a jazz club in Monroe and the approximate potential consumers to better evaluate the argument, we need more concrete evidence that people who live in Monroe is willing to spend money on jazz club, otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable. |
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