0910AW 同主题写作第七期 ARGUMENT101 by 尾羽

尾羽UID: 2482591

TOPIC: ARGUMENT101 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals.
"In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers."

主张：要增强WO的豆类蛋白含量，来吸引注重健康的潜在消费者，从而增加销售量
结论：这样做，既为公司增加产值，又有助于顾客健康。
Support:一个study说，一周至少吃五次大豆的人的胆固醇指标明显低于不食用豆类产品的人。

提纲：
1.        study中，（1）被调查者的人数、年龄、健康情况都没有给出信息，无从得知他们是否具有代表性。(2)对被调查者的观测时间是多长？也许大豆对降低胆固醇的效果只是一时的，并没有持续性效用。（3）胆固醇指标低就意味着对身体有利吗？

2.        在没有对消费者进行调查之前，不能断定他们一定会购买“改良”之后的WO。因为，注重健康的消费者不一定都关注胆固醇指标，也许，有的关注产品是否天然绿色无公害，有的关心吃了是否会引起肥胖，有的只在意是否会恶化对自己的慢性病（比如糖尿病）

3.        在study中，胆固醇明显降低的人是直接食用大豆的，WO属于soy products，大豆经加工后还会有降低胆固醇的效果吗?存疑。

尾羽UID: 2482591

In this memo, a president claims that one of cereal products for breakfast made by his or her company named Wheat-O cereal should be fortified with soy protein, in order to attract more consumer to increase sales. To substantiate this claim, the president also provide a recent study showing that subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects ate no soy products. Accordingly, the president asserts that the new Wheat-O will be benefit to the company profits and keep their consumers health. As it stands, this memo is unconvincing for several critical flaws.

First of all, the president fails to present any information concerning all details that may affect a correct conclusion made from the study. For instance, there is no information about the number of investigated people, how old they are and their original health condition. The representative role of subjects in this study is worth considering. Similarly, the president also ignores to lend the fact that how long the subjects were observed during the experiment. It is entirely possible that the cholesterol level declines significantly and temporarily after the subjects ate soybeans, and a temporary effect may not be good to health. Additionally, we are not quite sure that a low level of cholesterol is possibly having benefit to our health. Thus, to improve efficiency, the president must offer more information like something above, or it would cause suspicions to the reliability of study.

What further weakens the conclusion made by the president in the memo is the fact that whether the effect of descending cholesterol level is same when people eat soybeans or soy products like fortified Wheat-O cereal. In other words, the component from soybeans that will decline the level of cholesterol might be destroyed during the manufacture process of making new version of Wheat-O. That is to say, the new cereal would have no positive impact to consumers’ health as the president promised in memo.

Moreover, the president’s conclusion also based on a questionable assumption that the fortified Wheat-O cereal will attract additional consumers to increase sales. Nevertheless, how can the president make such an assertion without a survey about consumers’ desire? Because, even if the consumers concern their health condition, it might be in many different aspects, not in respect of cholesterol only. It is likely to be that some consumers mind about whether food they ate is green, pollution-free and organic; others care about the calorie level or some ingredient in food that would lead to fat and exacerbate the situation of their chronic disease. Therefore, the assumption will not be supported sufficiently before the president provides more details of evidence.

As it stands, the memo is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the president would have to demonstrate a scientific study with solid fact and appropriate deduction. Such as, the specific experiment details like the age, number, and original health condition of the subjects. Furthermore, the president must also provide evidence to rule out all the mentioned-above possibilities that might weaken the conclusion.

yangguang_86UID: 2414818

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