题目:ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
1 某一家商店的销量不能代表全国的情况。
2 订阅杂志的人的喜好不能代表全国的情况。
In this argument, the president recommends that all of their stores should stop stocking imported cheese and concentrate mainly on domestic cheese. To suppose his argument, the arguer cites the strong sales of domestic cheeses at their newest store, and shows a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazine which reveals an increasing preference for domestic cheeses. After a scrutiny of the evidences provided by the president, I cannot be convinced for several respects.
First, the impressive sales at the newest store do not necessarily indicate that the customers throughout the country show the common preference for domestic cheeses. It is entirely possible that the residents in that particular place share such a distinctive flavor that it could hardly be consistent with that of the people in the whole country, which is more reasonable if that place where the newest store is located is adjacent to Wisconsin and thus customers find the flavor of these cheeses more familiar and acceptable. In addition, the arguer fails to provide detailed circumstances of that newest store. Perhaps the imported cheeses sold there are insufficiently stocked and less available to customers, which can also lead to the specious evidence that domestic cheeses sell better. In other words, the high sales at the newest store can hardly demonstrate the local preference for domestic cheeses, let alone that of the whole population.
Second, the result of the recent survey is based on the assumption that the subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine are representative of the cheeses consumers all over the country, which is unsound as it stands. There is scant evidence that the respondents participating in this survey stands for the whole population. Nor is the magazine proved to be authoritative and credible.
In sum, lack of sufficient and relevant evidence, the arguer cannot make hasty conclusion and recommend the company take the risk. To justify his recommendation, the arguer needs to provide more substantial evidence about the preference of the whole population, and to affirm that both the newest store and the cheese magazine are representative.