argument提纲 =August Rush=小组第5次作业 by 尾羽

尾羽UID: 2482591

作业贴~A提纲
090727：2楼A1-A5；3楼A6-A10
090810：4楼A11-A15; 5楼A16-A20; 6楼A21-A25; 7楼A26-A30
090811：8楼A31-A35; 9楼A36-A40; 10楼A41-A45; 11楼A46-A50

尾羽UID: 2482591

1The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics有氧运动 classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

1.即使NW在当地的营业状况确实非常好，也不能通过那个report得出，NW在P很有发展前景
（1）跑步鞋和运动衣的销量持续居高不下，真的是当地人自己消费的嘛？还是拿去倒卖了？值得怀疑，因为那个report是merchants report.
（2）也许P的居民只热衷运动，而不相信health food or products的功效。
（3）health club在五年前几乎倒闭，虽然现在客源很满，但是作者没有给出导致5年前没有生意的原因，如果这些因素仍然没有消除，那么再一次倒闭的可能性也就仍然存在。例如：服务态度不佳（开始顾客还能接受，但越来越觉得无法容忍）
2.即使根据report得出NW确实应该在P开新店，但是开发新一代消费者的计划也是没有根据的
（1）health food是否会影响学生的正常发育
（2）如果当地学生的总体健康状况不错，有必要使用health related products吗？
------------------------------
2The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

1. B涨房价可能还有其他原因。（1）B所处市中心，地源紧张，即使不统一外墙颜色也会涨房价（2）在刷墙的同时，当地人对房子进行了翻修，价格就涨了（3）当地新建了工厂，增加了就业机会，很多外地人为了工作来买房，人多房少，价格就涨了
2. 即使B房子涨价确实是因为同一刷墙了，那也不能证明DA这样做，房子也会增值
（1）B涨房价是7年前的事情了，在现在这个方法不一定使用。也许7年前，人们买房很看重房子的外观形式和颜色，而现在，可能人们注重的是房子所处的区域、质量和价格是否实惠
（2）也许会来DA买房的人，根本就不喜欢统一的墙色，他们喜欢有个性的，与别家不同的
3.这个建议的可行性。也许B地区的很多房主都是炒房的，而DA的大部分房主都是自己住的，因此，为了房子增值而大动干戈，对于DA的房主来说是没有必要的，因此他们不会接受这个建议。
------------------------------
3The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.
"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."

1.进入大公司就职的法律毕业生人数下降也许除了job satisfaction，还有别的原因
（1）招聘要求严格苛刻（2）工作压力大（3）在那三年间，大公司爆出丑闻，形象评价直线下降，学生自然也不愿意去工作
2.对大一学生的调查不能代表毕业生的想法
3.法律领域的情况不能说明所有行业的就业问题。
------------------------------
4The following was posted on an Internet real estate地产 discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

1.员工的比较，不能说明AR superior
（1）AR有40个agent，而FR是25个，并且其中很多是兼职。那么工资的开支肯定是AR比FR大，也就是AR的利润成本比FR高，那么售房的价格也相对高。而人们总是愿意在质量特性相当的情况下，选价格低的商品。
（2）也许兼职的员工比agent更加努力工作,因为他们是兼职，通常有一定的经济压力，所以更珍惜这份工作
2.资产情况的比较，也不能说明AR superior，
（1）没有给出这两家资产中的负债情况。
（2）平均售房价格不能说明，总收入
3.售房的例子也不能说明AR superior
（1）一个是十年前，一个是去年，十年间，会发生很多变化。
（2）出售的是两套房子，这两套房子的情况可能会相差很多，也许十年前卖的那套比较破，比较难卖。
（3）两次比较即使能说明卖的速度，也不能说明good price
------------------------------
5The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis关节炎 is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical制药的 companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent专利 on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical临床的 studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

1.关节炎患者会增加，制药企业的效益不一定也会增加
（1）在未来20年中，可能会出现别的手段来带地吃药治疗关节炎。比如医生可能改进技术，通过做手术来治疗关节炎，而手术的疗效可能会比药来的快，来的好
（2）人们得到这个消息之后，更加重视对自己关节的保护，反而减少了未来几年内患者增加的人数
2.临床研究不足以证明PP的Xylan能比BECTON的XENON创造出更多的利润。
（1）重度关节炎患者的用药选择也许和普通关节炎患者的选择是不一样的，重度关节炎患者的用药量大，因此他们可能会选择PP的XYLAN，而重度患者在所有关节炎患者中的人数比例又没有给出数据。因此即使他们会选择PP的X也不能说明PP的X能比BECTON的XENON更赚钱。
（2）临床调查的十个人，不具代表性
------------------------------

尾羽UID: 2482591

6The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

1.Cnote不一定能有本地市场
（1）最近的爵士酒吧在65英里以外，只能说明65英里以外的那个地方有市场，而无法说明M有市场。也许就是Monroe当地人并不热爱爵士，所以此前一直没人来开爵士酒吧
2.说明爵士乐在M流行的证据不够充分
（1）100,000个人中，有多少是当地居民呢？也许大多数都是外地人，因此，不能说明爵士乐在当地人中受欢迎
（2）爵士乐家居住在M，有很多原因，也许是房价便宜，居住环境舒适，交通方便，不一定是这里的爵士乐气氛好
3.全国性的调查研究所得的情况不能说明Cnote能挣钱
（1）如果M这个地方的人，根本就不是typical jazz fan，那么他们也许不会再jazz方面多花费一毛钱。
------------------------------
7The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

1.选市长，不能只考虑环境保护问题，选AG不一定好
（1）AG可能只擅长环境保护，但作为一个地区的领导人，平衡各方面向着积极的方向发展才是首要任务
（2）GEC只是环保组织，而town council是政府部门，从这点上来看，FB的政治领带能力可能胜过AG
（3）town council的现任成员不保护环境，并不代表这FB个人的意愿，FB只是a member没有说FB在town council里有决断权。因此他个人也许是赞成环境保护的
2.举的例子不能说明是town council成员不保护环境
（1）工厂的数量翻倍，只能说明增加了就业量，不是所有工厂都会造成污染的，也许他们在增加厂房的同时，也新增了治污设备
（2）空气污染不一定是当地新增工厂造成的，也许临近地区的工厂或者汽车尾气，由于地势原因聚集在clearview
（3）医院里呼吸病患的增加，也许是因为别的地方污染加剧，而clearview有好医生，所以都来这里治疗了。
3.即使clearview的污染确实很严重是因为管理不到位，没有证据表明AG能治理。因为除了说她是GEC的成员以外，没有列举任何她以往的成绩
------------------------------
8The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."

1.没足够证据表明，MF具有强有力的发展潜力
（1）去年利润增长20%不能说明在未来MF仍然会继续保持盈利性增长
（2）DS在过去的三年的销售业绩都有增长，也不能说明在未来它仍然会增长
（3）DS的业绩数据也不能说明MF整个公司的盈利情况，或许他们的负债高于收入
2.即使MF这个公司是有发展潜力的，也不能说明他们的产品就适合OMNI的收购。虽然OMNI的目标人群是喜欢吃小吃的14-25岁的年轻人，而MF正是出产小吃产品的公司，但并没有证据说明MF生产的小吃产品一定就是年轻人喜欢的。
3.也没有证据表明，DS在全国会受欢迎，因此OMNI不一定要只注重这款产品。MF也许只在某些地区销售DS，而DS的口味非常符合那些地区的饮食习惯
------------------------------
9The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated充气的骄傲的膨胀的; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."

1.分数变高和平均分变高不一定是因为老师想讨好学生而产生的结果。可能是老师受到学生监督以后，改进了教育方式，使得学生成绩提高
2.没有足够证据表明，OU的毕业生就业情况不如AU，就是因为雇主觉得OU成绩不真实。就业情况不好可能有很多原因
（1）即使OU的成绩有所提高，但是在成绩上，仍然比不上AU的学生，因此，雇主更倾向AU的学生
（2）OU的财政状况不如AU，所提供的实习岗位不如AU多，雇主更加青睐有实际工作经验的AU学生
3.没有充足理由说明，停止学生对老师评价，OU的学生毕业就业状况会好转。也许，停止学生对老师评价后，老师的工作积极性可能降低，造成教学质量下降，因而导致学生成绩的回落，雇主就更加不看好OU的学生
------------------------------
10The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive过多的多分的过度的 profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

1.从奶场数量的增加和EFM的价格增长不能说明奶农会receive excessive profits
（1）更多的奶场会加剧竞争，这就包括了价格竞争，因此，这也许会压低奶场的利润，而非挣钱跟多
（2）一个市场的价格涨幅，并不能代表整个地区的价格情况。也许整个地区的整体价格是在降低的
2.即便奶农会获取暴利，没有足够证据表明，是因为他们供应给当地更多的牛奶
（1）也许他们是把牛奶和乳制品卖到了外地
（2）也许他们自己建造了乳制品工厂，供应的是乳制品，而非牛奶
3.即使奶农会因为当地的牛奶需求增加而获取暴利，也没有证据表明，政府控制了当地的牛奶零售价格就会阻止奶农继续过分的获利
（1）奶农可以把奶卖给乳制品生产商，不会受当地的牛奶零售价格的约束，可以继续获取利润
4.没有考虑政策的可行性

尾羽UID: 2482591

11The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."

1.前几年铝和纸的回收并不能说明在今后的几年垃圾的总体数量会有所减少。
（1）没有证据表明铝和纸在垃圾的总体数量中占有很大比例
（2）垃圾中还有很多其他material，比如塑料plasitcs、废铁scrap iron
2.下个月的回收资金有双倍~并不代表今后都能保持在这个资金水平
（1）因为回收费用太贵，而只能支撑一个月
3.调查不足以说明被访问者会有效减少WE的垃圾数量
（1）respondents不等于residents
（2）有了意愿，不一定会去做~
4.完全没有提到此前的回收效果
------------------------------
12The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts（轮班） are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."

1.AM和PI没有可比性。AM是工厂，有大量劳动力；而PI可能大多都是机械化操作，工人很少，本来就不太会出事故。
2.没有证据表明出事故一定是疲劳导致的（1）工人喜欢闲聊（2）工人对报酬不满意，所以干活不认真。即使是疲劳的缘故，也没有证据表明，缩短一个钟头的当班时间就能缓解工人的疲劳
3.无理推论，工人睡饱了也不一定能增加业绩。（1）监管不到位，工人会偷懒（2）产品营销不到位（3）产品售后服务不到位
------------------------------
13The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."

1.前三本畅销书和第一本书的电影卖的好并不能说明SP的VG也能卖得好
（1）没有证据表明，SP会一如既往的好卖，也许SP写的不如前三本
（2）也许读者的口味已经变了~不再喜欢SP这类的书
2.没有证据表明，有了受欢迎的人物和故事情节之后就能减少成本
（1）因为人物太受欢迎，导致设计人员压力加大，对人物设计的要求提高，导致人力物力的支出加大
（2）故事情节需要删减或增加，以符合消费者的高要求
3.即使这两个原因都成立，也无法说明，这个公司的这个项目投资是有回报的，并且能缓解资金紧张的状况。因为总的支出仍然可能大于收入
（1）没有考虑宣传推广费用（2）作者的版权费（3）员工工资开支
------------------------------
14The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

1.全国性的调查不足以说明当地消费者对种植越来越有兴趣
（1）调查只说明了消费者对超市的蔬菜质量感到不满意，也许只是抱怨，以期待超市能提高蔬菜的质量，并没有任何态度表明想要自己去种
（2）全国性的调查结果不能说明地区性的意愿
2.杂志在当地卖的好也不能说明居民就有兴趣自己种菜
（1）大家可能对种花草来美化院子有兴趣
（2）如果这个杂志是月刊，那么三个月的销量并不能说明问题，也许大家的兴趣只有三个月
3.即使大家有兴趣，也没有证据表明扩展种子的种类就能增加盈利。当地也许有更好的种子公司，品种更多，价格更便宜，大家不会去GTGC买种子。屯了货卖不出去，只会造成亏损deficit
------------------------------
15The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

1.市面上有很多高脂肪高胆固醇的产品都是ODI生产的，不能说明他们公司产品的销量和利润就会减少。
（1）调查只是对人们意愿的调查，也许大多数人希望少吃，但仍然无法抵挡诱惑，仍然在购买和食用ODI的双高产品
（2）ODI也许在生产双高产品的同时，也生产低脂肪低胆固醇的食品，而双低食品的生产量和销量比双高食品的还要多的多
2.即使当前的事实确如调查所说，但是建议持股人抛售股票和建议投资人不要购买仍然是理由不充足的：目前状况不好，并不代表将来会不好：他们长远期的规划就是逐步将双高产品淘汰，向双低食品方向发展。如果有较好的前景，那么更加应该低价买入
（3.对调查的质疑）

尾羽UID: 2482591

------------------------------
16The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."

1.在每个小学生上的花费多和拥有医疗保障的人多，并不能说明是L的乐透使L的教育系统和医疗保障达到高水平
（1）L的就业率可能很糟糕~因为没钱给大学生实习，而这时教育系统中相当关键的一步
（2）也许L的人口本来就比I的多很多，因此，自然的有医保的人也就多了
2.没有证据表明，乐透在L对教育系统和公共医疗有好处，在I也会有好处
（1）乐透可能会导致I学生无法专心学习~只想着中彩票
（2）人们不专心工作~导致事故频发
3.没有证据表明新乐透在I会成功
（1）调查只正对capital city，不够代表性
（2）人们对赌博感兴趣，不能说明对彩票感兴趣
4.即使新乐透会成功，也不一定就能改善教育系统和公共医疗
（2）教育和医疗除了设施，人很重要，而好医生和好老师不一定有钱就能请来
------------------------------
17The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ—which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks—has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."

1.town council选ABC除了价格以外，也许还有其他考虑。ABC的垃圾处理的方式很环保，而EZ只是填埋
2. EZ的涨价可能是不合理的，给出的EZ涨价能提高服务质量的依据不充分。
（1）一礼拜收两次，并不代表EZ的服务就好。也许ABC一周收一次的效果和EZ一周收两次的效果同样好
（2）增加卡车数量不是理由，因为ABC也是20辆卡车，一个月2000的费用没动，那么EZ也没有理由因为把卡车增加到20辆而涨价
3.调查只是说明了人们对EZ在过去的表现，并不能证明EZ要继续被聘用
（1）十年的设备和处理垃圾的理念可能在现在看来是落后了
（2）调查没有涉及到居民对EZ涨价问题的态度
------------------------------
18The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."

1.证明PC的限速是不成功的证据不充分
（1）PC的驾驶员超速并非因为限速降低，而可能有其他原因：PC的人喜欢飙车、PC的超速处罚力度不够
（2）事故有了下降，可能正是因为限速的结果，如果不限速，可能会发生更多事故
（3）没有给出任何在一段时间内PC地区交通事故发生率的具体的比较数字
2.说明BC的措施有效的证据也不充分
（1）把去年的事故数量和5年前的情况比，不具说服力。因为可能BC地区在5年间私家车的数量可能猛增了几倍，这就直接导致了去年的事故数量要比5年前要多得多
3.即使BC的措施是成功的，也不表明在PC适用
（1）可能PC的居民喜欢喝酒，宽阔的道路和平滑的路面会更有利于他们超速行驶或者造成事故
（2）重新回到55mph，可能会造成驾驶员限速意识减弱，事故发生率直线上升
------------------------------
19The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."

1. 没有足够证据表明乐队在M越来越受欢迎
（1）作者说去年所有演唱会的票平均要24小时售完，那么也就是说有的地方多余24小时，有的地方少于24小时。而作者没有提供去年在M的票用了多久卖光，所以有可能是少于12分钟的。
（2）乐队在全国范围内是受到14-25年轻人的追捧并不表明在M也会受到追捧，也许M是个以中老年人为主地方。
2.即使乐队确实在M地很受欢迎，没有丝毫证据表明是AL广告的作用
（1）也许M是乐队成员的家乡，不用广告，人们自然会来捧场
3.即使AL广告在M的确很管用，但是不能证明复制到全国都有效
（1）AL是本地公司，对本地资源的利用和调配很在行，但离开了M就不行了
（2）在M受欢迎，并不代表在全国都受欢迎。

------------------------------
20The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

1.在B岛上，行人和车的事故发生率增高的主要原因也许不是租车数量问题
（1）行人不遵守交通规则，喜欢在快车道上走路
（2）道路路况不好
（3）大家都自己买车
2.T岛上事故发生减少50%不一定就是减少租车数量的结果
（1）T岛上的人都去大城市打工了，人口大幅度减少，自然事故也就少了
（2）因为污染太厉害，T岛对私有的车进行了管制
3.T岛上的成功不一定在B岛上也能成功
（1）B岛是以旅游业为主的岛，租车减少，造成交通不便，游客都不愿意来
（2）B岛租车业受限，造成公交系统不堪重负~道路堵塞严重

尾羽UID: 2482591

21The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

1.关于新羊毛供应商的信息不够，不足以证明可以恢复这种大衣的生产。5年前是什么原因导致中断羊毛供应的？如果是供应商供应的羊毛质量问题，那么现在新的供应商解决这个问题了吗？
2.证据不足以说明这种大衣现在会卖得好
（1）竞争对手放弃不再继续生产的原因就可能是这个大衣不好卖
（2）近几年消费者的爱护动物意识增强，皮草不再受欢迎，人们根本没有这类需求，更不会花高价买了
3.即使会卖的好，也不一定会为企业向5年前那样增加效益
（1）羊毛的成本增长的太厉害
（2）5年间，当地的污染税猛增
------------------------------
22The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."

1.人口增加和家庭收入增加比全国水平快，并不能说明当地人就会买价格在$150,000以上的房子
（1）许多人长大后会因为求学或工作的关系离开自己出生的地方，因此当地人口增加并不意味着购房需求会增加
（2）就算购房需求在增加，家庭收入比全国水平快也不能说明他们会愿意买高价房。作者没有给出确切的家庭年收入数据。也许即使他们的收入增长的快，但仍然无法支付高额的购房费用。
（3）全国性的调查结果并不能说明SC的区域性情况
2.即使应该把重心转向高价房，也没有证据表明有必要去雇佣更多的工人去造更多的房子
（1）已经盖好的房子是否已经卖完
（2）现有工人的数量是否可以完成更多的造房任务，也许去年他们没有抓紧时间
3.即使增加工人和转移经营重心都是有必要的，也不能说明公司利润就会提高
（1）造房材料价格是否上涨、增加工人的工资是否可以承担
（2）购房需求是否会持续升高
------------------------------
23A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.

1.没有足够证据证明新的BC海鲜餐厅会受欢迎。
（1）消费的增长，并不能说明海鲜市场需求在增加，可能是因为最近五年捕捞技术发达了，捕上来的海鲜更加鲜活~捕捞量也更大，因此供应充足，并不是当地有更多人喜欢海鲜了
（2）以前一直没有海鲜餐厅可能是有原因的：可能当地人不喜欢把海鲜当主菜
2.证明新开一家海鲜餐厅会盈利的证据不充分
（1）全国的调查不能说明BC这个地方的情况，也许BC的双收入家庭很愿意在家里做饭吃
（2）双收入家庭通常都很忙碌~没有闲心去享受海鲜大餐；他们宁愿把钱花在孩子的教育上，也不愿意放在吃上
------------------------------
24The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.
"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."

1.没有证据表明关掉小厂去造一个大厂会为企业带来成本上的节省，可能会耗资更厉害
（1）人员遣散费severance pay（2）拆房\造房费
2.证明G作为理想地点能为企业减少成本的理由不充分
（1）当地成年人的文化程度是否适合在高科技工厂工作，如果当地人文化层次较低，还要对他们进行培训，不仅花费更多，而且也耽误了开工时间
（2）以前的工资水平低，可能意味着他们的工作能力也低
（3）前三年不收城市税，是否有其他税收的比较高导致总的收税比别的地方高，比如环境税
（4）G的地理位置偏僻，产品销售运输费高昂
------------------------------
25The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

1.没有证据表明，OV的税收增长主要是因为造了高尔夫球场和度假酒店，作者没有提供高尔夫球场和酒店的具体经营状况。
（1）游客增加可能是因为去OV在这两年开通了高速路，交通很方便，完全可以当天来回，不用住酒店
（2）OV的消费水平低~人们去是为了亲近大自然，而非物质享受，因此高尔夫球场的吸引力并不大
2.也没有证据表明，新企业的开办和由他们带来的税收增加是高尔夫球场和度假酒店的功劳
（1）企业的开办重在成本的节省和产品销量的增加，和高尔夫球场、度假酒店有何关系
3.即使两个项目的确为OV带来了税收的增加，未必在H能有同样效果
（1）H没有OV那样美丽的风景，H是典型的工业城市，人们根本不会来H旅游
（2）H当地本来的税收就高，新企业不愿意进驻

尾羽UID: 2482591

------------------------------
26The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.
"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."

1.说明CS个人教学能力的证据不充分。
（1）SC高中的乐队赢得的是区域性比赛，如果他们没有和S在同一个区域比赛过，不能说明他们就比S的乐队好
（2）CS先生是SC高中的music ditector，而获奖的乐队可能是由SC高中的专门管乐队的音乐老师教的，他们得奖并不是CS先生的功劳
（3）当地排练设施和乐器的质量明显提高并不一定是因为乐队获奖，更不能说明CS先生的能力。也许是因为SC有更加厉害乐队在过去的五年迅速蹿红或者是SC高中近五年特别重视乐队的培养。
2.即使是因为CS的个人能力促使SC高中的这些成就，也不能说明他来S就能有同样的好效果
（1）CS先生可能只擅长教乐队，而对general music education不在行
（2）S的学生也许对音乐没那么大的兴趣，天赋也没SC高中的好
------------------------------
27The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles.
"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."

1.没有证据说明A的员工离开去了S完全是因为工资的原因
（1）也许S的福利保障更加好（2）也许S建了一个学校，能解决子女就学问题（3）S的工作环境好
2.即使已经离开的员工是因为工资的问题，没有证据表明，给出双倍工资就能留住A的best staff
（1）best staff也不是因为工资的问题
（2）best staff可能认为要三倍或是更高的工资才能留住自己，因为他们是最好的
3.没有证据表明A在未来会持续的失去员工
（1）没有说明S会在该州新建一个又一个的工厂
（2）也许两家企业的经营项目并不同，所需工人的种类也不同。
------------------------------
28The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school day."

1.没有充分证据表明吃早餐能有效减少学生旷课和迟到或是精神萎靡
（1）旷课可能是因为学生身体不好，经常生病，而作者没有直接给出证据说早餐对预防疾病有什么好处
（2）迟到可能是因为当地的交通状况不好，总是塞车或是天气状况恶劣，总是下雨降雪
（3）也可能是课业负担太重schoolwork burden，导致学生睡眠不足
2.即使旷课和迟到和没吃早餐有关，但没有证据表明吃早餐能提高academic performance学业成绩，这可能是多方面的：（1）兴趣（2）努力（3）天赋（4）教学水平（5）家庭环境
3.给每个学生每天提供早餐是否可行（1）学校要承担所有学生食品安全的责任，鼓励家长给孩子做早餐是否更妥当（2）学校的开支是否承受的了，如果因此影响了正常的学术教学活动，那就得不偿失了，学校毕竟是以教学为主的
------------------------------
29When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.

1.为什么IM在四年前败选，而且输得那么惨？作者没有给出任何原因，所以也就不能推论出，她在环境保护方面的努力就一定会帮助她在这次竞选中当选

2.P的环境问题得到解决和当地生活质量的改善，也许AY在P禁止机动车进入公园并不是主要原因
（1）也许AY在禁止机动车进入公园的同时也封掉了很多污染严重的工厂并鼓励大家多使用公共交通，减少总的排放量
（2）AY可能新建了几家具备环保设施的工厂，减少污染的同时，又增加了就业率，提高了人们的收入
3.没有证据表明AY在禁止机动车进入公园的举措会赢得LC民众的广泛好评
（1）AY在P只是听取了小部分人的建议，说明此举措只有小部分人可能受益，那么也许在LC，本来公园的数量就很少，因此并不是很多居民都能体会到环境正在变好
4.即使受到好评，也不能保证IM能够当选
（1）即使大部分市民都参与了环保回收项目，但并不表明他们对市长在关于提升当地经济和政治上的建树，毕竟作为市长，环境保护不是惟一的工作重点。
------------------------------
30According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who travel to Eliottown has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year before. Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly.

1.机场和火车站的数据不足以证明，来E的游客人数在过去的几年有明显的增长
（1）有很多人是来中转的，他们的目的地并不是E
（2）有很多人不是游客，而是商人、学者或政客
2.即使游客在增长也不能推论出是由于新的中央公园和现代艺术博物馆
（1）也许是因为E的自然风景好，且新开通了航线flight course和新修了铁路railway
（2）E推出了其他促进旅游的举措：加大广告力度、降低酒店房价hotel rates、特产商品local and special product促销
3.即使游客增加是因为公园和博物馆，也没有必要特别加大拨款
（1）公园和博物馆如果是收费的，那么门票收入也会随着游客的增加而增加，根本不必拨款

尾羽UID: 2482591

------------------------------
31The following appeared in the editorial section of a newsmagazine.
"Some states are creating new laws that restrict the use of of handheld cell phones by drivers of automobiles. Such legislation, however, is sheer folly. Although some people with cell phones undoubtedly cause problems on the road, including serious accidents, the majority do not. Besides, problems are also caused by drivers who are distracted by any number of other activities, from listening to the radio to disciplining children. Since there is no need to pass legislation restricting these and other such activities, it follows that there is no need to restrict people's freedom to use a device that they find convenient—or helpful in emergencies."

1.大多数人不会因为手机造成事故，并不表示手机对开车没有坏影响
2.而且，把手机和照看孩子与听广播来做比较是不公平的。即使其他动作也会分散开车人的注意力，也不能说明手机不应该被禁止。
（1）照看孩子是必须的，而手机可用可不用
（2）听广播不会影响人们肢体上对车辆的操纵，而打手机会占用一只手
3.作者只是片面的看到这些动作对开车人的便利，而完全忽视了他们的负面影响
------------------------------
32Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.

1.人们开始通过邮件或网上订购商品，并不能说明开车购物车辆的数量会减少
（1）那么网上订购的增多就会导致送货用车的量在增加
（2）人们可能没有减少开车购物的数量，只是额外增加了在网上购物的数量
2.即使开车购物的用油量在减少，并不等于所有车辆的油消耗会减少。人们可能会增加旅游的次数
3.即使现在的用油量在减少，没有证据表明这种现象会持续
（1）也许没多久人们就觉得网上购物并不那么方便~相反，它会惹来很多麻烦
（2）人们向往去商场买东西的购物感受
------------------------------
33The following report appeared in an archaeology journal.
"The discovery of distinctively shaped ceramic pots at various prehistoric sites scattered over a wide area has led archaeologists to ask how the pots were spread. Some believe the pot makers migrated to the various sites and carried the pots along with them; others believe the pots were spread by trade and their makers remained in one place. Now, analysis of the bones of prehistoric human skeletons can settle the debate: high levels of a certain metallic element contained in various foods are strongly associated with people who migrated to a new place after childhood. Many of the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the metallic element. Therefore, it must be that the pots were spread by migration, not trade."
1.作者并没有给出充分解释除了食物以外还是否有其他原因会导致人们在小时候移居到一个新地方时会与高含量的金属有关

2.对骨头的研究不能充分说明罐子的大范围分布是因为迁移引起的
（1）不会做罐子的人也许骨头上也会有高含量的金属，也就是说罐子并不是那些骨头上有金属的人带来的
（2）并不是在全部的地方都发现了罐子附近的骨头上有金属含量，即使作者的前面一步推论成立，也不能说明罐子都是因为迁移引起的，因为有些地方并没有在罐子旁边发现有金属的骨头
3.仍然有可能是由交易使得罐子分散的，作者并没有理由否定这点
------------------------------
34Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis（骨质疏松）, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.


1也没有充分理由说明乳制品不能减少骨质疏松.
（1）既然说osteoporosis是环境和遗传有关~那么作者并没有给出任何关于被调查者遗传方面的信息，有可能那些持续食用乳制品的样本很多都是遗传引起的osteoporosis
2. 没有充分理由说明乳制品在增加骨质疏松
（1）是否还有其他外因可能导致样本的骨折的几率升高
3.也许人们的想法是错误的，牛奶和奶制品里含有大量维他命D和钙与直接食用牛奶和奶制品能防止骨质疏松没有直接因果关系，有可能人体无法吸收直接的钙和维他命D，作者基于这样一个不可靠的依据，得出的结论也是不可靠的

------------------------------
35The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.
"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."

1.没有足够事实证明把S作为防腐剂的商业行为会直接导致头痛人数减少
（1）防腐剂一些成分有可能对健康有害~所以防腐剂人们一般是不吃的，那么如果人们不把含有S的防腐剂吃下去，又怎么减少头痛呢？
（2）也许人们在通过别的途径治疗头痛，比如在二十年间，发明了更好的手术、或是其他药物
2.即使S作为防腐剂会减少头痛人数，没有证据表明S作为添加剂也能有同样的效果
（1）由于化学作用或加工问题，S与添加剂中其他成分发生反应后就失去了治疗头痛的功效
（2）人们对有S作为添加剂的食品感到反感distaste，因为加了添加剂之后味道很怪

尾羽UID: 2482591

------------------------------
36The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."

1.从小孩更父母说更多的话不能判断出小孩究竟是被父母养的，还是整个村子
（1）这两者并不矛盾contradictory，即便小孩被村子养，仍然可以和父母说更多的话
（2）作者也没有给出明确定义，究竟怎样算是被父母养，怎样算是被村子养，因此没有得出结论的根据
2.即便小孩确实是父母养，作者也不能说DF对T的文化结论是错的，更不能说以观察为基本的研究方法是错的
（1）文化包含很多方面，光凭一件事不能说明问题
（2）即使作者的访问方法在这件事上是有效的，也不能说观察法是错的。也许观察法在别的文化研究上是有效的
3.没有理由说访问法在别的岛的文化研究上也是有效的
（1）访问法基于语言沟通，别的岛的语言可能完全不通，沟通会有障碍
------------------------------
37Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity(附近地区) of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river—the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.

1.除了船，P人可能以其他方式过B河
（1）砍树搭桥（2）像泰山一样晃过河（3）他们可以游泳，可能古时候B河还不是那么深那么宽
2.即使P人过不了河，不代表篮子过不了河~篮子可以从河上飘过去传到L的

3.也许古时候根本没有B河，B河是在P人消失后才因为地震而出现的，P人和L人本来是一个部族的
------------------------------
38The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

1.EM的鱼消费量上升和EM因感冒而就诊的次数少没有直接因果关系
（1）也许EM的人注重锻炼身体，从而提高了对感冒病毒的免疫力
（2）鱼的消费量上升不一定是本地人消费的，可能是EM对外打了广告说EM的鱼新鲜且价格便宜，导致外地人纷纷来购买
2.即使鱼消费量上升是去看感冒的次数减少的原因，也不能说明鱼能预防感冒
（1）也许鱼能增强体质，缓解感冒症状，却不能预防
（2）也许EM地方的人认为生病是老天的惩罚，而吃鱼能赎罪。同时他们也吃感冒药
3.即使鱼能预防感冒，也不能说明I就能预防感冒，也许是鱼里的其他成份
4.即使I确实能预防感冒，也不能说会降低旷课旷工率
（1）也许人们只是把感冒当成借口，实际上还有很多其他原因导致旷工旷课：1.偷懒2.得了难以启齿的病
------------------------------
39The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits（赤字） at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

1.OU长线课程的入学人数上升，并不代表全校的情况，也许全校的入学总人数与去年相比是在下降的。教室与宿舍费用支出的下降，也可能是因为全校人数的下降，而不是因为视频教学。
2.没有提供任何关于OU财政状况的信息。也许，长线课程的入学人数增加带来的收入仍然不能填补OU原有的财政亏空。因此长线课程并不能弥补赤字。
3.OU的数据情况是去年，而HC的却是过去三年。也许在三年中，OU也是亏的，而HC在去年有可能是盈利的。

------------------------------
40The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.
"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."

1.E对自己的顾客进行调查不能说明所有市场的顾客对食物是否有杀虫剂和残留的化学药剂
（1）E的顾客不能代表所有顾客的意愿，也许E的顾客中有一部分也是天然食品商店的顾客，没有证据表明天然食品商店的顾客数量在增加
（2）有些顾客可能更注重味道好不好，作者没有排除这点
2.在展会上，75%的人会索要免费有机水果的样品，并不代表人们会去购买有机食物
（1）人们觉得价格太贵，而免费当然是可以接受的（2）并没有给出人们在尝试之后的态度，也许他们并不喜欢有机食物，觉得味道不够好
3.没有证据表明全面铺开有机食物市场能给E带来利润
（1）作者完全没有考虑竞争对手的细节情况，低价战会导致利润下降甚至亏损
（2）成本问题完全没有考虑：货源供应、运输费用、宣传推广费用

尾羽UID: 2482591

41The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution company with food-storage warehouses in several cities.
"Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse（仓库） in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services."

1.上个月损坏食品的价值比较不足以说明AF不好
（1）两地warehouse的总价值没有说明，也许￥2000只占了PC仓库的1%而￥10000却占到了W仓库的80%
2.价格上也不能说B占优势
（1）没有具体说明FA的价格比B低了多少，如果FA和B的价格差距比两家公司造成损失的差价要多的多，那么FA也是可以接受的
（2）没有说明两家公司对损坏货品的补偿compensation，也许FA公司是双倍赔偿的
3.即使以上两点都不成立，作者也没有给出任何B在PC可以做的比AF好的证据（1）PC和W的气候可能差别很大，PC潮湿温度偏高，容易易于虫子生长

------------------------------
42The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income（人均收入） in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."

1.作者不能因为生态旅游为B地增加了人均收入就推测在P推广生态旅游也会增加人均收入
（1）P地是否自然景观可供游人进行生态旅游，如果P是工业城市，根本不会有人愿意来旅游
（2）P可能过于落后，没有饭店、机场、公交系统等来接待大量游客。而为了实施旅游项目，必须先把基础设施建好。可是等建好这些之后发现，已经没有钱再搞旅游项目了，居民也因为之前的建设而缴纳了过多的税，更加穷了。
2.作者没有说明B地的生态旅游对当地生态环境造成的结果，因此说在P推广生态旅游一定能保护环境是没道理的。B地名义上是生态旅游，但事实上可能因为游人太多而对环境造成了不可挽回的严重后果
3.为了广告的成功要请B的旅游局来活动顾问是没有依据的
（1）没有事实表明B地的广告宣传成功是B地旅游局的功劳，可能他们完全包给某个广告公司做
（2）B旅游局并不一定了解P地的情况，以他们的经验照搬过来可能是没用的
------------------------------
43The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto Theater.
"Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex."

1.没有证据表明A剧院在有了那些豪华设施以后的收入如何
（1）根据作者给出的调查来看，也许A剧院因为票价卖的高而生意惨淡
（2）再加上A剧院在城外，可能交通不便导致生意不好
2.没有证据表明R剧院在提供和A一样的设施后，就会reflourish
（1）作者没有明确是什么原因导致R剧院如果不改进就会倒闭，也许是播放的影片都太老，而豪华设施无法弥补recuperate这个缺点；85%的受访者只是说新发行影片的票价过高，而并没有说他们不会去看影片，因为电影上映会有一段时间，可能只有前几天的票价会比较高
（2）如果R剧院豪华之后，增加了成本，也会常年卖高价票，导致消费者无法接受
（3）没有比较两家剧院的常客的类型，也许R剧院的都是年龄偏大的消费者，他们不喜欢豪华的装潢decorate，只喜欢那种怀旧nostalgic的气氛
------------------------------
44The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.
"Monarch Books should open a café in its store to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened a café. Monarch, which has been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer following because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Opening the café would clearly attract more customers. The café would require relatively little space. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will likely become less popular given that the last national census indicated a significant decline in the percent of the population who are under age ten."

1.没有证据表明MB开咖啡店能吸引更多的顾客
（1）没有说明RB开咖啡店有为RB吸引顾客的效果
（2）没有考虑顾客的感受，也许顾客只是愿意在MB买书而不愿意在MB边喝咖啡边看书
2.没有充分理由证明为了造咖啡店而撤销儿童书籍的区域是值得的
（1）全国性的调查不代表地方现象
（2）撤销儿童书区就背离了MB的特长——拥有数量齐全的各类书籍
3.没有考虑开了咖啡店后的运作成本
------------------------------
45The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

1.没有充足证据表明，鹿的数量在减少
（1）猎人的报告是否准确：猎人不是专业研究人员，他们对鹿的数量的统计也许不科学，有误；猎人的活动范围是有限的，而鹿的活动范围要大得多
（2）即便他们不能迁徙，没有证据表明鹿群不迁徙就会大量死亡
2.没证据表明驯鹿数量减少和全球变暖直接因果关系
（1）全球变暖导致冰融化并不能说明北极地区给鹿走的冰在融化，也许还没波及那些区域
（2）其他原因：过度认为捕杀、传染病

尾羽UID: 2482591

------------------------------
46Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears—often similar in color, but much larger—were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled（受惊吓） and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.

1.语言和传说不能够提供足够的信息说明那里确实同时存在有grizzly bears和黑熊
2.作者没有提供信息说明Innu的其他信息：他们可能从远处移民过来
3.其他因素：这项研究的信息没有提供，可能对Innu的语言理解有误；以及探险者的详细记载，可能那一只并不是grizzly熊

------------------------------
47Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

1.没有记录并不表明flash不存在，可能人们还没有发现证据，因为时间太久远了，所以也有可能是撞击导致了冰川时期
2.有记录的火山爆发并不能说明，当时火山爆发就导致了冰川时期，可能火山只是普通的喷发。历史上有记录的火山爆发有很多次~按照作者的逻辑，那是否每次有记录的火山爆发都会导致地球的冰川时期？
------------------------------
48The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

1.没有足够理由证明用电脑不是导致身体变差的原因
（1）正因为人们知道用电脑对身体不好，因此拥有最多电脑的地区的人们最注重身体健康，也最懂得如何通过锻炼来增强体质
2健身产品和服务的花费特别低，并不能说明当地人的身体健康状况好。
3.没有证据表明健身产品和花费低是因为经济不好
4.没有证据表明人们的健康状况会随着经济复苏而好转
------------------------------
49The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newsletter on health issues.
"For the past decade, most health experts have advised teenagers to avoid eating greasy（油腻的） foods in order to prevent acne（粉刺） and related skin conditions, but the number of teenagers who sought medical help for these skin problems has actually risen over the same period. In a recent study, teenagers who avoided greasy foods for a month reported approximately as many outbreaks of acne and related skin conditions as did those who ate an average of two servings of greasy food per day. Such data indicate that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne and related skin conditions. Therefore, health experts should no longer recommend that people avoid such foods."

1.因为去看医生的小孩不一定都是因为油腻食物引起了他们的粉刺和皮肤问题
2.调查没有给出关于受调查人的细节情况，导致调查结果不可信
3.即使调查结果可信，只能说小孩可以对油腻食物不忌口，而不是所有人。
------------------------------
50From a draft textbook manuscript submitted to a publisher.
"As Earth was being formed out of the collision of space rocks, the heat from those collisions and from the increasing gravitational energy of the planet made the entire planet molten, even the surface. Any water present would have evaporated and gone off into space. As the planet approached its current size, however, its gravitation became strong enough to hold gases and water vapor around it as an atmosphere. Because comets are largely ice made up of frozen water and gases, a comet striking Earth then would have vaporized. The resulting water vapor would have been retained in the atmosphere, eventually falling as rain on the cooled and solidified surface of Earth. Therefore, the water in Earth's oceans must have originated from comets."
1.作者没有提供确实有彗星撞击过地球的证据
2.作者说任何水分都会被地球蒸发，那么彗星的水也会被蒸发，而不是形成大气层
3.作者没有考虑其他产生海洋的原因

wisleUID: 2578616

说下你的A46
中心在说Innu的两种针对熊的语言讨论：
正文首段：
1.语言和legends并没说一种就是G熊，可能是其他种类的
2.即便是G熊，可能thousands of years, the ancestors of Innu immigrated from the west.
正文第二段：
1.旅游者出错

感觉这篇这么写的话要写上420字必须详细详细论述，否则很难
这类题目实际上很具有挑战！

wisleUID: 2578616

加油
我属于从绝望中寻找希望，没过题库只是按这高频看了前60+一些
估计过了也记不住，但过了还是很好的
努力！

尾羽UID: 2482591

说下你的A46
中心在说Innu的两种针对熊的语言讨论：
正文首段：
1.语言和legends并没说一种就是G熊，可能是其他种类的
2.即便是G熊，可能thousands of years, the ancestors of Innu immigrated from the west.
...
wisle 发表于 2009-8-12 09:42

是啊~~过题库才发现A里的科学研究类都比较难找到攻击点。。。以前都没写到过这类的。。
今天去找范文观摩观摩，别人的提纲拿来看总感觉不对头~说的不在理儿