a53 马上就要考了 大家帮我拍拍啊

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53. Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers’ production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown sighs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

The argument is relatively sound, but it is not well-espoused in some aspects. Merely based on unfounded assumptions and dubious evidences, the author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth is the cause of shyness during the infancy and this shyness continued into later life. To bolster this conclusion, the author quotes the consequences of a recent study in support of this recommendation. The paragraph seems somewhat cogent at first glance. However, while it only scratched the surface of this phenomenon, a careful analysis of the study reveals that none of them lend credible support to this conclusion.
The first question I want to mention is about the study cited in this argument. The researchers conducted the survey taking a group of 25 infants as a sample. But the author provides no evidence that the study’s result is statistically reliable. Moreover, a group of 25 infants can not be the representative of all the infants. Lacking evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, the author cannot justifiably rely on the study to draw any conclusion whatsoever.
Yet, there is no guarantee that it is necessarily the case and absent evidence is provided to confirm this assumption. So it is possible that the melatonin has nothing to do with the shyness of the infants, or the shyness of the infants is determined by the other factor such as nationalities or gender. Without considering ruling out these and other alternative explanations, the author cannot support the recommendation.

The last but not the least important, even if the evidence turns out to support the foregoing assumptions. the author fails to consider the shyness will eliminate as soon as the study is over and will not continue to their later life. It is reasonable to doubt that what the author grants will not happen in reality. It is just as possible that the interviewers have affected these children to some extent. For example, the interviewer is the opposite gender of one of the children. It is possible that this child will be shy. To reach the cited conclusion, the author must explain either why none of these alternatives is available or why none of them is able to sustain.
Overall, the reasoning behind melatonin leading to the shyness seems convincing and persuasive since a study has been conducted. Nevertheless, before any final decisions are made about the shyness of infants, the author should evaluate all the possible alternatives. Besides, the argument could be improved by more concrete or further information about the study, which will surly conduce to enhance the stringency of this argument.

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