模考第五天-ARGUMENT14

wisleUID：2578616

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appearedin a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small businessserving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers arebecoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A nationalsurvey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfiedwith the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally,the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out atthe Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb GardeningCenter can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetableseeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS: 450
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-8-9下午 02:42:10

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The arguer sets up an ostensible logicallink between the conclusion-Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase theprofit by storing more various kinds of vegetable seeds and three parallelpremises: consumers' propensity of growing own vegetables, nationaldissatisfaction on the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarket, and goodsale of Great Gardens. However, it turns out that, if look critically, theseunstable buttresses weaken the conclusion.

At the first step, it is indispensable todiscern the central concept: the consumption of vegetable seeds will increasein this coming spring. A threshold suspicion arises from the national survey.It is reasonable to question that whether the situation in our area alsoreveals the same scenario in the national survey. Possibly, in other partswhere there are not enough lands to grow their vegetables, the consumers therehave to eat the vegetables in their supermarket, since the quality of thesefresh vegetables can be undermined by the transportation. On the other hand,our area maybe has enough lands to produce these fresh vegetables. Besides, thenational survey also aims at the people who live in the city. Thus they have tobuy the vegetable in the supermarkets. While our area is in the countryside, wehave adequate high quality fresh vegetables. As long as these concerns can beclarified, the assertion is more defensible.

Next, by checking up another premise that Great Gardenshas sold out three months in a raw at the Village News stand, we cannot helpassuming that whether this magazine concerns the vegetables. It is possiblethat the Great Garden is a magazine for plantingflowers rather than deals with the vegetables. Even if the magazine is aboutthe vegetables, it doesn't mean the consumers who buy this magazine would liketo grow their vegetables and buy the vegetable seeds in the coming spring.Maybe they just want to realize some knowledge about the vegetables. Moreover,the good sale during three months at the same stand cannot demonstrate thegeneral sale situation in our area. Without further explanation for thesepotential concerns, this assertion is crippling.

As the last step, another point worthpondering is that the propensity of growing own vegetable. It is still doubtfulthat whether the increasing interest in growing their own vegetables revealsthe increasing sale of the seeds. Possibly these consumers just dream aboutthat, but unfortunately they have no time to do so. Thus this assertion is afar cry from being proved.

Simply put, the evidences cited in thisargument are not competent for this conclusion. After all, an incorrectconclusion for Green Thumb Gardening Center to store more seeds will bring anunexpected loss rather than gain a big cheese.