argu45求批改，谢谢

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45 The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.  "Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


正文：
The author attributes the decline in arctic deer populations to the melt of sea ice, over which the arctic deer move from island to island. However, the assumptions and reasoning behind the conclusion suffer from several serious flaws so that the editorial appears to be unreliable.

First, the author cites reports from local hunters showing that the deer populations are declining. However, the reports are probably not statistically dependable for the reason that the witnesses are just local hunters. Common sense informs us that local hunters always act in a relative small area, while arctic deer live in the whole Canada's arctic region. Thus, it is possible that the number of arctic deer in the region where those local hunters live is declining but the total number is conversely increasing. If the author cannot provide more evidence to prove that arctic deer populations are surely declining, the conclusion will be meaningless.

Even if these reports from local hunters are really representative, the author fails to identify other possibilities that give rise to the decline of arctic deer. For example, in these years, an unknown disease has been occurred in this species and it is the disease that causes the number of arctic deer to decrease. Or perhaps, laws to protect the deer are not as effective as before so that illegal hunters begin to hunt for the arctic deer in a large scale. Thus, the arctic deer populations are decreasing.

Finally, there is no evidence to suggest that the deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea and the sea ice cannot afford arctic deer to across. The author falsely assumes that the degree of global warming is similar all over the world. Perhaps, this region where arctic deer live in does not become warmer. If so, the deer can still move from one region to another freely. Moreover, as the argument has cited, the deer search for food during the course of a year and their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants. Therefore, it is possible that the degree of global warming is so appropriate that the area which arctic deer stay now is sustainable to feed them all year long. At the mean time, the ice can still allow the deer to across. Without ruling out the severity of global warming, the author cannot judge that the deer are unable to across the ice to seek food.

In conclusion, there exist several critical flaws which render the argument unconvincing. To bolster it, the author must make the report representative enough, exclude other factors that may also influence arctic deer populations and exhibit how serious the global warming is.

麻烦大家帮我看下我写的这篇argu，提点建议也好~雁过留声嘛

是寂寞UID: 2680526

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