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发表于 2009-8-12 21:47:38
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本帖最后由 bernina 于 2009-8-14 22:34 编辑
TOPIC: ARGUMENT137 - The following appearedin an editorial in the Mason Citynewspaper.
"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason Riverfor any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region'sresidents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as afavorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the qualityof the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because theythink that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: theagency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River.Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget forimprovements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."
(我帮你粘贴上来,下次别忘了发原文^^---bernina)
A137:
1, 没有证据说明居民很少利用M河来娱乐是因为水质的问题。投诉是否具有代表性,投诉时间是过去,现在不一定。
2,忽略其他可能性。可能(1)是天气变化河水变湍急,(2)城市建设了其他新的娱乐措施等。
3, 即使是因为水质问题,清理计划不一定能有效(机构宣布了计划,不一定河水就能干净,污染程度,还有工作效率,都不一定能达到标准)
4, 即使清理成功,人们愿意来娱乐,没有证据是否有必要改造河沿岸公共土地(是否很差?是否人们已经满意了?如果满意了只会是浪费钱)
Grounding on some facts and analyses, the author comes to the conclusion that with the purpose of attracting people taking water sports in M river, a clean-up plan is needed. In addition, it is necessary to increase the budget of improving surrounding environment along the river. While this argument seems plausible at first glance, the reasoning process is flawed in several major aspects.
Primarily, while the author ascribes the citizen’s avoid of river to the bane of poor water quality, no evidence available indicates a casual relationship between them. Firstly, we are not informed with whether M River is suitable for recreational activity or not. Perhaps the weather in M is too cold during most time of the year. Or perhaps too much vortexes in the river makes it dangerous to take water sports especially swimming and boating in the river. Secondly, what if it is surrounded with factories and tall buildings instead of parks and greenbelt? It is also possible that the river is remote from the city centre. Thirdly, maybe it is the companion of other recreation facilities such as swimming pools and amusement parks which led to M's out of fashion. If so,( If this is the case) the clean-up plan in order to drawing people's attention to have recreational activities in it will be useless. Let alone no solid evidence and scientific statistics are provided to convince me that the complaint is representative of the overall citizens.
Next, even assuming that pollution is the main problem we are now faced with. A plan cannot guarantee a consequence. Would the government surely take the plan into action? Would the river be purified to a certain level which is enough for people to have sports in? Would the citizen satisfied with the outcome of the plan? Only after we see the accomplishment can we conclude whether the recreational use of the river will increase.
Granted that the clean-up plan is helpful and more people are attracted to take water sports in M river, I still can not find what the author's recommendation to increase the budget on improving the publicity owned land is based on. Absent evidence there is, it is highly possible that residents who participate in water sports do not take much use of land along the river. After all, water sports happen mainly on the surface of river. On the other hand, suppose the environment along M river is good enough already, thus there is no use to make any improvement at all.
To sum up, the author's recommendation is unwarranted and hasty. To solidify it, the author should point out the feasibility of M as a place of recreation, and ensure the government’s plan would carry out successfully. In addition, he ought to inform us of the existing facilities along M river. Without the evidences mentioned above, I would suspend my judgment about the reliability of the argument. |
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