Argument 45 求拍，大家帮帮忙，看看能给几分

ztr931UID: 2680321

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."



In the analysis, the arguer attempts to convince us that global warming leads to the decline in the arctic deer populations. The major evidence underlying the statement is that local hunters have reported about the declining of deer. Besides, he indicates that global warming may play an important role in the melting of ice. The argument is vulnerable in 3 aspects.

In the first place, the provided evidence does not suffice to prove that the deer populations are actually in the decline. The change of the population of certain species are supposed to be based on the investigation of experts with scientific method. The hunters lack the ability to do this. Therefore, they may only concentrate on a particular area where the deer had migrated to another area and ignore other areas where more deer exists. In addition, the deer may gain the ability to escape from the hunters' observation as time went by. That is to say, the data from the hunters is not persuasive.

In the second place, more evidence should be given to prove the ice have melted to the extent that the deer cannot travel over it. First, global warming only cause the temperature in the world goes up slightly. Perhaps the difference is not effective enough to cause the ice in the arctic to melt. Even if it melted, perhaps it is still thick enough for the deer to travel on it. If further evidence about the melting of the ice is given, the analysis will be more persuasive.

Last but not least, the argument is based on the assumption that no factors other than global warming cause the declining of deer population. The population is related to various factors. For one thing, the hunters mentioned in the argument might have killed many deer. For another, perhaps more wolves or tigers have come the place where the deer live. Without ruling out these possible factors, the arguer cannot reach his conclusion.

To sum up, the conclusion in the analysis lacks credibility. Because the arguer use invalid evidence and ignore the false assumption. The analysis will be strengthened if another investigation about other infectors that may influence the population of deer is per formed.

irvine666UID: 2575525

1# ztr931

时间有限，只给你看一段：

In the first place, the provided evidence does not suffice to prove that the deer populations are actually in the decline. The change of the population of certain species are supposed to be based on the investigation of experts with scientific method. The hunters lack the ability to do this. Therefore, they may only concentrate on a particular area where the deer had migrated to another area and ignore other areas where more deer exists. In addition, the deer may gain the ability to escape from the hunters' observation as time went by. That is to say, the data from the hunters is not persuasive.

1.我觉得经常接触动物的猎人的话比在实验室里和课堂里搞method的“砖家”的话有说服力得多，猎人本身就是experts of wild lives。

2.they may only concentrate on a particular area where the deer had migrated to another area and ignore other areas where more deer exists.这句话一看就是常识性错误，尤其是那个only是一大败笔。hunters狩猎这么多年，如果都会犯你说的这种错误，他们也早不用活了都饿死算了...

3.the deer may gain the ability to escape from the hunters' observation as time went by 这句话里面的observation是很有问题的，deer能够escape的只能是kill和traps，什么时候能把observation也escape了？

the data from the hunters is not persuasive这个显然是题目的可批之处，然而你的入手点却很没说服力。
有空可以参考https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=927873

ztr931UID: 2680321

多谢多谢，版主这一说帮我指明方向了。

青柠小可UID: 2662026

领悟不少！~